ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[tolakram]

Saved RBTOP image. Look at that eye clear out after landfall.

[tolakram]

saved radar loop

[Florida1118]

...ERNESTO BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF YUCATAN PENINSULA...

4:00 AM CDT Wed Aug 8
Location: 18.9°N 89.0°W
Moving: W at 15 mph
Min pressure: 987 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

[somethingfunny]

I've seen another storm clear out an eye over the Yucatan like that, but I can't remember which one it was. It may have been a tropical storm. Alex, Karl? Does anybody remember the storm I'm talking about?

I sure wish that recon flight hadn't had technical difficulties... it would be fascinating to learn more about why some storms barely decay at all over the Yucatan. And relevant...

[Chickenzilla]

I've seen another storm clear out an eye over the Yucatan like that, but I can't remember which one it was. It may have been a tropical storm. Alex, Karl? Does anybody remember the storm I'm talking about?

I think it was Karl. Alex weakened to a TD after crossing the Yucatan.

[Chickenzilla]

Ernesto has a convective burst directly over the center.

[somethingfunny]

A 275 degree heading, pretty much the shortest distance to the other coast.

[brunota2003]

It was Karl from 2010...Karl also RI'ed after he got into the BOC.

[brunota2003]

Looks like Ernesto is back to either due west, or south of west. If he keeps his current heading, he is only barely going to get back over water...if at all.

[somethingfunny]

This looks like a southward wobble, but I think the eye is just above that black patch in the last frame - the convective burst Chickenzilla pointed out makes it appear like the eye sank south, but Ernesto should still be on track to take the path of least resistance into the Bay of Campeche as quickly as possible.



I love these new Floater .gifs. I'm a little worried they'll cause pages to become unloadable for people on slower connections though.

Right along 19°N, which is right where it needs to be to make the crossing ASAP:

[KWT]

Wow that was very impressive, Ernesto was bombing as it came inland and it was so strong that Ernesto continued to improve its structure even as it moved 20-30 miles inland.

Amazing stuff.

I now wonder whether Ernesto will have time to become a hurricane again on the other side or whether it'll be too close to land.

[KBBOCA]

I don't have much time today to go back through archives to look, but didn't Dean and Felix both hit in the same area and intensify strongly (both to Cat 5?) as they came ashore?

I will have time to research later... but this is what I'm remembering.

[Sanibel]

Don't know how much water it will get now upon re-emergence.


NHC on top of track now.


The models showing a north track busted badly on this storm.

[tolakram]

I don't have much time today to go back through archives to look, but didn't Dean and Felix both hit in the same area and intensify strongly (both to Cat 5?) as they came ashore?

I will have time to research later... but this is what I'm remembering.

Hurricane Dean did:


Felix was further south.

[KWT]

Don't know how much water it will get now upon re-emergence.

I'm thinking the same thing, if it was say 100 miles further north I'd be confident that this becomes a hurricane again, but I'm not sure its going to have the time, unless it pulls a Karl and totally explodes.

[tolakram]

Unless it's decoupled or the MLC is sheared south I'm starting to wonder if this will re-emerge.

[brunota2003]

80 knots sounds right for the peak intensity...if it was over water when the eye started warming, I would of said it looked closer to 90 or 95 knots...but because it only appeared/warmed after moving inland (frictional effects most likely aided in that), I don't think it was any higher than 80 knots...though I guess you could make an argument for 85 knots.

Anyone agree?

[CrazyC83]

Landfall pressure was about 978mb based on surface data, so that would suggest an intensity around 80 kt.

[tolakram]

first visible

[tolakram]

Not a lot of frames available yet but I'm not seeing any NW movement, still west and possibly SW.

Rapid Scan live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=6