ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[JamesCaneTracker]

Ernesto COULD be a whole lot stronger then what they are saying though. We have no recon in the system to confirm the intensity!

Are there even any weather reporting stations in the general area where Ernesto is about to make landfall and will Mexico even release the data on just how much damage is caused? I know some place like Cuba it's really hard to know for sure the complete Impact Tropical Systems have on them.

[Zeno8]

YIN YANG???

[img]http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/707/avn0.jpg/]

[AJC3]

Good thing it came in quickly before it had a chance to intensify much further. Hope thats not a highly populated area.

A little over 1.3 million in the entire province
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quintana_Roo

Othón P. Blanco municipality, pop = 244,000+ Biggest city is obviously Chetumal, pop 150,000+
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oth%C3%B3n ... intana_Roo

Felipe Carrillo Puerto municipality, pop = 75,000+, 25,000+ in the city itself
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Felipe_Car ... intana_Roo

http://www.qroo.gob.mx/qroo/

[timmeister]

Latest Visible

[AJC3]

Ernesto COULD be a whole lot stronger then what they are saying though. We have no recon in the system to confirm the intensity!

Are there even any weather reporting stations in the general area where Ernesto is about to make landfall and will Mexico even release the data on just how much damage is caused? I know some place like Cuba it's really hard to know for sure the complete Impact Tropical Systems have on them.

Closest METAR site is at the city of Chetumal, which is at the west end of a bay...
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMCM.html
MMCM 072345Z 33015KT 5SM -RA BKN010 BKN030 OVC060 25/24 A2964 RMK SLP038 5//// 999 8/72/

Next closest one farther north is Cozumel
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMCZ.html
MMCZ 072348Z 09010G20KT 6SM SCT010 BKN080 OVC250 24/22 A2977 RMK SLP069 57026 989 8/577

[brunota2003]

Dvorak T#s just came in... 4.5/4.5. CIMSS ADT is at 4.3 (raw numbers). The first is 77 knots, the second is near 74 knots...pretty good compromise of the data.

[SunnyThoughts]

Josh is chasing over at AMericanWeather for those interested. May be the only accurate readings we get right inside the eye of the storm..if he indeed makes it to the eye. He's still heading south to try and intercept where the eyewall comes ashore I believe. I'm sure there are probably other folks chasing also. If anybody knows of any chasers in the area trying to be in the right place at the right time...let us know.

[tolakram]

Live visible loop, still in rapid scan mode.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

Latest

[tolakram]

Saved radar loop

[NDG]

What is up with the WSW jog? I didn't see this coming.

[JamesCaneTracker]

Josh is chasing over at AMericanWeather for those interested. May be the only accurate readings we get right inside the eye of the storm..if he indeed makes it to the eye. He's still heading south to try and intercept where the eyewall comes ashore I believe. I'm sure there are probably other folks chasing also. If anybody knows of any chasers in the area trying to be in the right place at the right time...let us know.

Do you have a link to that?

[crimi481]

Did Ernie hit a wall- bounced him due south? Temporary - or stall possibly. Strange move
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[littlevince]

Something unexpected has happened, I remember on last years that there was a S2K member from USAF who was usually well informed about Recon missions, maybe he can tell us what happened.

[JPmia]

looks like landfall will be Costa Maya.. appears to be a resort area with a cruise ship port and a few subdivisions of homes and then over to Chetumal.

[cycloneye]

Something unexpected has happened, I remember on last years that there was a S2K member from USAF who was usually well informed about Recon missions, maybe he can tell us what happened.

That member is pojo.

[WxEnthus]

Josh is chasing over at AMericanWeather for those interested. May be the only accurate readings we get right inside the eye of the storm..if he indeed makes it to the eye. He's still heading south to try and intercept where the eyewall comes ashore I believe. I'm sure there are probably other folks chasing also. If anybody knows of any chasers in the area trying to be in the right place at the right time...let us know.

Do you have a link to that?

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/ ... g-ernesto/

[drezee]

I hope Ernesto is not rapidly intensifying. Of so, not having recon could be a problem. Imagine if we didn't have recon 6-10 hours before the landfall of charlie...

[CrazyC83]

AL, 05, 2012080800, , BEST, 0, 187N, 871W, 75, 980, HU,

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Ernesto was probably briefly a Category 2 hurricane before landfall, but since recon did not investigate the storm due to technical issues, it will go down as an 85 mph Category 1 hurricane at its first landfall.

Still expecting this to reach its peak in the Bay of Campeche, as indicated by a majority of the global models. The GFDL continues to show rapid deepening, which may not be too far off the mark with the curvature of the coastline.

[JamesCaneTracker]

Ernesto was probably briefly a Category 2 hurricane before landfall, but since recon did not investigate the storm due to technical issues, it will go down as an 85 mph Category 1 hurricane at its first landfall.

Still expecting this to reach its peak in the Bay of Campeche, as indicated by a majority of the global models. The GFDL continues to show rapid deepening, which may not be too far off the mark with the curvature of the coastline.

Ernesto hasn't even made landfall yet... Official Landfall is when half the eye reaches the coast which hasn't happened yet...