ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[brunota2003]

Well, regardless it is going to weaken while over land. All TCs do. The real question for when it emerges back over the water is what does the inner core look like? If the inner core is still tight and compact, it can respin itself up quickly...if land disrupts the inner core a lot, then it has to repair that damage before it can respin up...and that takes precious time away from what little time it will have to begin with.

[Sanibel]

If somebody hasn't mentioned it already, the 0000Z Hurricane Hunter Reconnaissance mission has cancelled.


You can see from the constant swirl behavior of the CDO this is intensifying. We're going to miss precious pre-shore intensification data.


Who's going to volunteer to run out there with a hand-held barometer? (lol)

[Dave]

Mission Cancelled.

[stephen23]

My mom lives on the island of Isla Mujeres at tip of Yucatan between 8 miles off of Cancun. I just spoke with her and she said they have had really strong winds since 3:30.

[BZSTORM]

watching ernesto via the bz 400km radar http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/400-km-radar-loop the last few frames in the loop eye looks to travel more West or very shallow WNW. I know you dont like links posted here but not sure how to post picture of saved gif from the radar. BTW we have steady rain in Placencia thats opposite Independence you can see on the radar map in the south. almost no wind at all here.

[tolakram]

^^ saved that loop, here it is. Moving south of west!

Links are good, just don't embed images directly since it puts a huge load on the source server. Save and upload to an image site, then embed.

[BZSTORM]

^^ saved that loop, here it is. Moving south of west!

http://img256.imageshack.us/img256/9172 ... kmloop.gif

that was my husbands impression dropping ever so slighly to south could be chetumal/BZ border landfall after all, and allot of people vexed that Gov Belize has been holding the hurricane warning for the North, because its been pretty nice weather all day from South to even the North, hope people realize this was for a good reason.

[tolakram]

Looks to be very close to track.

[brunota2003]

If somebody hasn't mentioned it already, the 0000Z Hurricane Hunter Reconnaissance mission has cancelled.


You can see from the constant swirl behavior of the CDO this is intensifying. We're going to miss precious pre-shore intensification data.


Who's going to volunteer to run out there with a hand-held barometer? (lol)

I'll just take the 'ol trusty AT-6 Texan with my Kestrel and get all the data we need

For those who don't know the history of the Hurricane Hunters...the very first flight ever into a hurricane was all because of a dare.

Hurricane Hunting started on a dare in the middle of World War II, when Lt Col Joe Duckworth took an AT-6 Texan training aircraft into the eye of a hurricane.

http://www.hurricanehunters.com/history.htm

Sorry for going off topic!

[AJC3]

One thing to keep in mind is that when the overall track bends to due west, you will have some short-term trochoidal wobbles either side of the track - in this case, you can see a wobble a little south of due west. These tend to correspond to the intensity of convective bands wrapping around the eye - which seems to be the case here. Note how the stronger band wrapping around the south side of the eye (on the Belize radar image that was posted by tolakram) occurs concurrently with the slight south-of-west wobble. You would expect a ltitle more of a northward wobble once that band, or any other, wraps back around the north side of the eye.

[tolakram]

New blowup south of the center, which may be what is pulling the center south. A wobble, in other words.

[tolakram]

latest

[brunota2003]

So what happened to the drones that were being tested? I haven't seen a Global Hawk flight in a couple years...and the Aerodrone hasn't flown in a long time, either, I don't think?

[Nimbus]

Good thing it came in quickly before it had a chance to intensify much further. Hope thats not a highly populated area.

[timmeister]

7:00 PM CDT Tue Aug 7
Location: 18.7°N 87.1°W
Moving: W at 18 mph
Min pressure: 980 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
700 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012

...ERNESTO STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES QUICKLY TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA......LANDFALL EXPECTED LATER
THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 87.1W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* COZUMEL
* COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
* SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA
* CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE GULF COAST
OF MEXICO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
THIS EVENING. THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND EMERGE
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE ERNESTO REACHES THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATER THIS EVENING. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS ERNESTO
MOVES OVER LAND.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HONDURAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
BELIZE...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. THESE
RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON
THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS
IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
RECENT REPORTS FROM HAM RADIO OPERATORS INDICATE STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF MORE THAN 2 FEET HAS OCCURRED ON AMBERGRIS CAYE ISLAND
BELIZE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

Not a word about recon at advisory.

[Hurricane Alexis]

latest

http://img818.imageshack.us/img818/784/zztemp.jpg

That's one of the best looking cat 1 hurricanes I've ever seen.

[brunota2003]

It got cancelled.

[brunota2003]

It was also one of the best 45 knot TS' many of us have ever seen...Ernesto continues to baffle the mind.