ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[littlevince]

Suspense.



But it's not hard to guess where they will find the center, the strong NW trend is slowing a bit

[Weatherfreak000]

My extrapolated motion based on watching visibles would take him inland near the Northern tip of the Yucatan at this point...

[TexWx]

WX57 is either working hard right now, or riding his bike....
But I don't see him logged in.

[Ivanhater]

Looks like recon may have found hurricane force winds

[ROCK]

not official but 81MPH at the surface I think "E" has deepen to a Hurricane per RECON. High flight level winds also.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[ROCK]

Looks like recon may have found hurricane force winds

yes you are correct...

[Dave]

170100 1827N 08523W 8429 01360 9835 +212 +185 136005 019 041 003 00

983.5 extrap 984 mb.

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071706
AF300 1005A ERNESTO HDOB 52 20120807
165730 1835N 08515W 8424 01421 //// +161 //// 136077 080 072 041 01
165800 1834N 08516W 8432 01393 //// +165 //// 136072 077 080 025 01
165830 1833N 08517W 8442 01370 9863 +200 +200 132051 062 079 022 05
165900 1832N 08518W 8420 01385 9856 +200 +200 139034 044 049 006 01
165930 1830N 08520W 8429 01371 9853 +200 +192 142027 032 039 006 00
170000 1829N 08521W 8435 01361 9852 +194 +194 141027 027 039 006 00
170030 1828N 08522W 8423 01372 9847 +190 +190 144022 026 041 002 01
170100 1827N 08523W 8429 01360 9835 +212 +185 136005 019 041 003 00
170130 1826N 08525W 8430 01366 9839 +215 +191 292012 019 040 003 00
170200 1825N 08526W 8430 01375 9848 +218 +190 304021 022 040 003 03
170230 1826N 08527W 8426 01375 9842 +220 +193 342024 029 047 006 00
170300 1828N 08528W 8433 01369 9846 +214 +197 350035 038 051 004 00
170330 1829N 08529W 8421 01385 9856 +200 +200 004041 042 054 006 01
170400 1830N 08530W 8435 01381 9870 +190 +190 011045 047 056 005 01
170430 1831N 08531W 8422 01404 9880 +190 +190 027050 052 054 006 01
170500 1832N 08532W 8424 01413 //// +179 //// 035057 060 054 006 01
170530 1833N 08533W 8436 01412 9916 +180 +180 043062 063 053 006 01
170600 1834N 08534W 8420 01442 9928 +188 +180 049061 062 051 003 03
170630 1835N 08535W 8430 01444 9944 +182 +178 055063 065 051 003 00
170700 1836N 08536W 8429 01453 9954 +184 +176 059063 064 051 004 00
$$
;

[JGrin87]

So, E is strengthening quite a bit right now, correct?

[ROCK]

170100 1827N 08523W 8429 01360 9835 +212 +185 136005 019 041 003 00

983.5 extrap 984 mb.

yep he is dropping like a rock....gonna make a run at low end cat 2...IMO

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Nimbus]

Down to 983 and taking another step to the NW as he strengthens. Anyone got a good lagging average? we were at 295 over 12 hours now maybe 305?

[littlevince]

A little further north than I expected

[tolakram]

latest visible, still looking impressive

[littlevince]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 071716
XXAA 57178 99184 70854 04585 99984 27005 20512 00645 ///// /////
92547 25429 23508 85291 ///// 27506 88999 77999
31313 09608 81701
61616 AF300 1005A ERNESTO OB 25
62626 SPL 1845N08540W 1703 MBL WND 21012 AEV 20802 DLM WND 23009
983843 WL150 21513 084 REL 1844N08540W 170117 SPG 1845N08540W 170
326 =
XXBB 57178 99184 70854 04585 00984 27005 11935 24809 22910 25440
33850 ///// 44843 /////
21212 00984 20512 11979 21512 22935 21011 33909 24506 44890 26010
55853 26506 66843 29507
31313 09608 81701
61616 AF300 1005A ERNESTO OB 25
62626 SPL 1845N08540W 1703 MBL WND 21012 AEV 20802 DLM WND 23009
983843 WL150 21513 084 REL 1844N08540W 170117 SPG 1845N08540W 170
326 =
;


-----
984mb (29.06 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 27.0°C (80.6°F) 26.5°C (79.7°F) 205° (from the SSW) 12 knots (14 mph)

[littlevince]

000
URNT12 KNHC 071716
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012
A. 07/17:01:10Z
B. 18 deg 27 min N
085 deg 24 min W
C. 850 mb 1288 m
D. 71 kt
E. 047 deg 12 nm
F. 130 deg 83 kt
G. 047 deg 12 nm
H. 984 mb
I. 17 C / 1523 m
J. 22 C / 1521 m
K. 19 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 1005A ERNESTO OB 24
MAX FL WIND 83 KT NE QUAD 16:57:00Z
;

[ROCK]

Down to 983 and taking another step to the NW as he strengthens. Anyone got a good lagging average? we were at 295 over 12 hours now maybe 305?

305 sounds good....might be more than that in the last few hours though...

[brunota2003]

I saw in the latest VDM that D. ( Surface winds) were either measured or estimated at 71 knots. Did they drop a sonde in the max wind band?

[Dave]

000
URNT12 KNHC 071716
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012
A. 07/17:01:10Z
B. 18 deg 27 min N
085 deg 24 min W
C. 850 mb 1288 m
D. 71 kt
E. 047 deg 12 nm
F. 130 deg 83 kt
G. 047 deg 12 nm
H. 984 mb
I. 17 C / 1523 m
J. 22 C / 1521 m
K. 19 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 1005A ERNESTO OB 24
MAX FL WIND 83 KT NE QUAD 16:57:00Z
;

[littlevince]

[monicaei]

How significant is this more NW motion on the eventual track/landfall position?