ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[sunnyday]

Wow! Look what happened while I was at work today. The number of pages doubled on this site, and there is a depression now.

Please delete this post. It should be in the chat room. I apologize....

[JPmia]

Besides the fact that this will cause some heavy rains over the islands (stay safe down there guys!), I am not getting excited about this until I see it/him pass Hispainola.. we've seen many storms get disprupted by those mountains.. especially tropical storms.

**I ain't a meteorologist and this ain't no forecaset.. it is my opinion**

[Weatherfreak000]

As I figured, NHC doesnt send this North......boy that track is OMINOUS....it could go anywhere.



Anyone ready for some late night model runs and pointless model wars? Tis the season!

[Kingarabian]

In ten days this may be on Texas' coast. How far north could this thing go and the odds of it?

I think the GFS and Euro have the track right (WNW). Unless it decides to defy all odds and intensify quicker then it maybe picked up in time.

[Weatherfreak000]

Pretty decent north shift in the 18Z package?

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/real ... _early.png

Models on the North end of that envelope I take with a grain of salt...... CLP5? BAMM? LBAR? Think i'll pass



IMO, the question here is North of Jamaica....or South?

[somethingfunny]

As is the case with all systems forming where Tropical Depression Five has formed, it could go anywhere from Panama to Iceland, and do so at any strength between an open tropical wave and the strongest hurricane ever. There's just so many variables to mess up a forecast right now.

[NDG]

Love to be schooled by wxman! Central America track as Hurricane Ernesto.

The long range cone of uncertainty points from Honduras towards Hispaniola and Cuba, with Jamaica and Grand Cayman in the middle of it.

[IreneSurvivor47]

I think Texas may be in for a major hurricane in 10 days...it's possible but these are the early days, where the track changes significantly every 3 hours. If this were to be a New England Storm, it could be more powerful than Irene.
This is far, far from official forecast.

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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[IreneSurvivor47]

The warm waters go very far north...hopefully this will stay south. That alone is why I'm nervous about a turn north. I still believe that has a good chance of happening.

[drezee]

I mentioned the similarities to Iris from 1995 a few days ago. It looks very much like Iris in its developmental stage. Iris popped quickly dispite the shear from Humberto. If the LLC and MLC can get allinged, then TD5 may have a similiar future.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[MiamiensisWx]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I see two developments that may be somewhat beneficial to the survival of this system...and which would be ominous under more auspicious conditions. The development of a convergent band of convection just west of the center that can be seen on the current satellite imagery may, in the short term, allow inflow to wrap into the center more readily, and it is indicative of a further tightening of the circulation. Also, divergence at all levels is apparently increasing in the southern half of the system; note the rather rapid expansion of the cirrus field and of anticyclonic outflow. Usually, the combination of a band of convection near the center and increasing anticyclonic outflow channels signifies an organizing system and a stacking system, meaning that the low- and mid-level circulations are aligning. If the rather dry dew points (a blessing, for I believe it will reduce the Windwards flooding threat) and shear were not present north and west of the center, I would bet that the system might otherwise be in a precursor stage to more steady, if not rapid, intensification. As it stands, however, the recent improvement is just a short-term trend, so I am sticking with the idea that this TC will be 40 mph at most.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis.html

[Ikester]

That's kind of an irresponsible statement considering that there is almost no skill in strength forecasting. IMO, it appears as though there will be a long wave trough over the eastern conus for the next week or more. The ridge is forecast to be over west Texas this week and slowly expanding east.

If I was a betting man, I'd say it would say Texas had a lower chance than other states but then again, my opinion is nothing more than a crap shoot being so far out.

[Aric Dunn]

not surprised it was upgraded. this morning it looked good enough to be classified and figured the nhc would if it maintained for another 10 hours and so it did and so they did. should be held in check until tomorrow when the shear should drop enough to allow some intensification.

I am now in Puerto Rico

[beoumont]

And so it begins...Like clockwork on August 1st we will get a classified system.

Certainly like clockwork when it comes to the lunar calendar: full moon is at 11:38 PM this evening.

[tolakram]

Live visible, last frames for the evening: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Latest

[IreneSurvivor47]

Who thinks this has near 0% chance to be a new England storm?

[Ikester]

I think Texas may be in for a major hurricane in 10 days...it's possible but these are the early days, where the track changes significantly every 3 hours. If this were to be a New England Storm, it could be more powerful than Irene.
This is far, far from official forecast.

Add disclaimer


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This is what I was replying to.

[AHS2011]

5 looks a little sheared on the northern part, or is it just me?

[Florida1118]

Who thinks this has near 0% chance to be a new England storm?

No no knows at this point. We will just have to watch it and see what happens

[Gustywind]

I just received a non-official information for Guadeloupe stating all events, including sport events, would be cancelled on Saturday due to TD5/E...

At this time, no news from Martinique

Ok thanks to you precious non-official information. That's a very prudent decision given what our eyes are discovering well east of the Windwards Islands... with TD 5. Given the NHC projection, Martinica seems under the threat, but anyway Guadeloupe and the other Leewards could experience strong winds so let's see how things will evolve.