ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[StormTracker]

As Debby looks right now I think she could make it across and re-ignite as a TS in the Atlantic! She's done the unbelievable so far! Hopefully the data collected from this storm & the environment surrounding it during it's lifetime will be helpful in future predictions!

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[psyclone]

As Baker county has received enough rain for the St. Mary's to reach 18 feet, and Live Oak, 65 miles west northwest of my town is evacuating some areas, and parts of I-10 are closed, she is a powerful storm. At least to those looking at the rising waters.......................

keep in mind a tropical system's ability to produce copious rainfall is not correlated with strength. many weak systems (even those without a name) have produced tremendous rainfall. those issues are handled with flood products. my comments were relating to Debby as a tropical entity and its capability (or, more appropriately, lack thereof) to produce tropical storm force winds. Debby has already produced 10" or more of rain from tampa bay up to appalachicola and eastward to jax. that's amazing and Debby's legacy, as i suspected all along, is rainfall. June landfalling canes are very rare.

[Peach]

Thank you; the rain without the wind is present, yet not an issue when discussing 'power'. What is a system like Debbie termed? Much more flood damage than wind damage, and certainly not a thunderstorm system?

[bayoubebe]

Debby has just about everything going against her at the moment....shear, dry air, land interaction and upwelling.....little doubt that the cyclone is on a weakening trend. Should be down to a depression soon and I'm not so certain Debby will survive the transit across Florida....we shall see. Winds have backed off quite a bit since yesterday here on the Mississippi Coast......MGC

Can someone please explain what upwelling is? Thanks.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Debby has just about everything going against her at the moment....shear, dry air, land interaction and upwelling.....little doubt that the cyclone is on a weakening trend. Should be down to a depression soon and I'm not so certain Debby will survive the transit across Florida....we shall see. Winds have backed off quite a bit since yesterday here on the Mississippi Coast......MGC

Can someone please explain what upwelling is? Thanks.

When a storm stays over the same area, it can upwell cooler waters from deeper in the water.

[psyclone]

Thank you; the rain without the wind is present, yet not an issue when discussing 'power'. What is a system like Debbie termed? Much more flood damage than wind damage, and certainly not a thunderstorm system?

there's no question Debby was a tropical storm. it was just always fairly weak and poorly organized. all we need to do is lift moisture laden tropical air to generate enormous rain quantities so any tropical storm or even depression/disturbance is capable of doing that and therefore represents a flood threat.

[ozonepete]

Debby has just about everything going against her at the moment....shear, dry air, land interaction and upwelling.....little doubt that the cyclone is on a weakening trend. Should be down to a depression soon and I'm not so certain Debby will survive the transit across Florida....we shall see. Winds have backed off quite a bit since yesterday here on the Mississippi Coast......MGC

Can someone please explain what upwelling is? Thanks.

When a storm stays over the same area, it can upwell cooler waters from deeper in the water.

Or also a strong hurricane that is moving along but not too quickly can also cause upwelling and will leave upwelled cooler water in its wake.

[ozonepete]

Thank you; the rain without the wind is present, yet not an issue when discussing 'power'. What is a system like Debbie termed? Much more flood damage than wind damage, and certainly not a thunderstorm system?

Don't forget it's a tropical storm until the NHC says it isn't. So it still is right now. It should be downgraded later today to a tropical depression, and tropical depressions can still cause tremendous flooding problems. After the center crosses Florida and gets out over the Gulf Stream it has a decent chance to regenerate into a TS again.

[ozonepete]

Still a TS and has indeed accelerated.

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
200 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

...DEBBY MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST...FLOODING THREAT
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA IS THE MAIN CONCERN...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 83.6W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM WNW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES

[Peach]

Thank you; the rain without the wind is present, yet not an issue when discussing 'power'. What is a system like Debbie termed? Much more flood damage than wind damage, and certainly not a thunderstorm system?

there's no question Debby was a tropical storm. it was just always fairly weak and poorly organized. all we need to do is lift moisture laden tropical air to generate enormous rain quantities so any tropical storm or even depression/disturbance is capable of doing that and therefore represents a flood threat.

Thank you, again.

[TampaFl]

2:00PM position - map courtesy BoatUS.com

Almost onshore!!!

[ozonepete]

It has to go over about 130 miles of land now before it re-emerges over the Atantic. Even if it stayed at the current speed of 6 mph that would only take 22 hours, bringing the center back over water tomorrow at noon. It looks to me like it will move even faster, maybe 10 mph, in which case it should be back over water by tomorrow morning. Will be interesting to watch, since I don't see it dissipating. Rather I expect it to regenerate in the absence of too much shear, higher SSTs and less dry air.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[brunota2003]

Nothing else came in that I can find Chris, it stopped at 23.

Next mission and only a couple more scheduled including this one.. takeoff around 6:30 pm edt today.

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 27/0000Z,0600Z
B. AFXXX 0704A DEBBY
C. 26/2230Z
D. 29.0N 84.8W
E. 26/2330Z TO 27/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

I wouldn't be surprised if that mission gets scrubbed due to proximity to land. No point in flying a recon mission if you are only going to get one fix, if that.

[wxman57]

Debby is at the tail end of the front that extends to Jacksonville, FL. Obs offshore don't support TS winds, nor does Debby's satellite appearance support TS status. Center swirl is about 16 miles from the coast. Development chances east of Florida don't look good.

[tolakram]

Highest reported winds I can find, near possible landfall location.

[wxman57]

Here's a surface plot. Strongest wind I've seen all morning is 30 kts. Strongest winds about 180-230 miles SE of the center and 80 miles NW of the center. So don't look for strong wind anywhere near the center moves ashore. Winds will be stronger in Ft. Myers and Miami than where the center moves inland. Not typical of a tropical cyclone.

[psyclone]

Debby is at the tail end of the front that extends to Jacksonville, FL. Obs offshore don't support TS winds, nor does Debby's satellite appearance support TS status. Center swirl is about 16 miles from the coast. Development chances east of Florida don't look good.

I completely agree. there's been no engine under the hood of Debby for quite some time.

[tolakram]

Latest Visible

[brunota2003]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Taking a look at the satellite images, it appears that what is left of Debby will make landfall around 5 or 6 pm EDT...assuming she does not speed up any more.