ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

My prayers are with those experiencing the major flood tonight.

Sunshine Skyway Bridge had a wind gust to 68 mph earlier.
Click North Tower Spreadsheet link on bottom center to see:
http://bridgemonitoring.com/bridges/Skyway/sky.htm

[CrazyC83]

Been following a round blob from Yucatan - - now getting close to hitting somewhere between Ft Meyers and Sarasota. Getting little bigger -and looks intense -holding together. Heading for "Charley" territory

Gusts now 40-60. Coming right at me? Oh my
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-rb.html

Stay safe out there!

[Cyclenall]

22:31z VIS / IR (Day / Night)

Where does this come from? Never seen this "product" of satellite imagery.

Navy/NRL TC Page

I've been using the NRL site for years and I have never seen that. I've even explored around a few times.

40-50 inches of rain in panhandle possible per dr. Greg forbes. And no that is not a typo

And now my original prediction of 30-40 inches might be too low!!!!! If I were around any of these types of totals I'd be sleeping in a boat. Looking more likely that Debby will be a historic tropical cyclone.

This has probably shattered the the record for the single highest rain event in history. im seeing rain estimates over 30 inches !!! with fay Melbourne reported around 28 inches... but right now there seems to be no end in site for the next few hours... not sure how to even explain how crazy that amount of rain is.

Where was that 30 inch estimate from? Its looking like Florida's TS Allison...

i believe the 24 hour state record is 38" and change at yankeetown. i wonder if our 24 hour state record is in jeopardy? then again, the area is so remote it might not be measured. if 40" falls in a forest and no one is there to measure it does it make a sound? once again...drought cancel. the wakulla rainfall makes the foot or so around here yesterday seem rather puny. that's something.

That phrase; "Droughts end with Floods" just keeps ringing true. New convective burst north of Apalachicola.

[CrazyC83]

If there is ANY good news, the insane rainfall today was over a sparsely populated area. It isn't like, say, Allison, where it happened in a major metropolitan area. That said, people still live there and they still are facing dramatic impacts.

Hopefully tomorrow's activity isn't focused on a major populated area either, knowing that more extreme rain convection is likely...

[crimi481]

Man - guess you all see this -piece of those storms north of center - zig zaged back near center of storm.
This not good

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-rb.html

[Hurricane Alexis]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 260537
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
200 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

...DEBBY MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 84.6W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM W OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES

[TeamPlayersBlue]

In response to old TS's and which produced the most rain... Allison is up there for 24 hr rainfall rates and the amount of rain for a system in total, but whats amazing is that most of the rain happened in a short period of time. Its not like it rained and rained and rained all night. It would just be an absolute downpour for 5-8 hr and quit 3 or 4 separate times. The worst being its final event where some areas received 24" in 8 hrs. Lived through it and still to this day never expect to see rain come down like that ever again in my life. It was incredible

[Chickenzilla]

Interesting. GFS forecasts that Debby will become quite strong after crossing Florida.

[Chickenzilla]

Debby looks sheared.Really sheared.What are the chances that Debby will poof?

[Hammy]

Looks to be the same thing occurring as last night, albeit a bit later than last night, so more than likely it'll go poof by late morning. My guess is that as many pointed out today would happen with redevelopment due to daytime heating will likely happen again tomorrow as well unless something drastic happens in the atmosphere, bringing more rain where it isn't needed.

disclaimer: not an official forecast

[Hurricane Alexis]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 260838
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
500 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

...DEBBY CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD WHILE MAINTAINING ITS
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 84.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM W OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

[Hurricane Alexis]

[img]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us[/img]

Slightly faster track and a bit more south than the previous advisory

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
500 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

DEBBY REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL STORM WITH MOST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...I.E.
DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. IN SPITE OF ITS
DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE...OBSERVATIONS FROM A C-MAN STATION NEAR
APALACHICOLA AND AN ASCAT OVERPASS INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE IS
MAINTAINING AN INTENSITY OF ABOUT 40 KT. GIVEN THE MARGINAL
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY UNTIL THE CENTER
MOVES OVER LAND. DEBBY IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN IF AND WHEN IT MOVES
OVER LAND AND...BASED ON THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST...IT COULD BECOME A
DEPRESSION IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. ASSUMING THAT THE CYCLONE WILL
EMERGE OVER THE ATLANTIC...SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME RANGE IS
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT COULD BE CONSERVATIVE GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL INFLUENCE OF THE GULF STREAM.

SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA AND RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT DEBBY HAS
TURNED TOWARD THE EAST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 090/3...AS THE STORM IS APPARENTLY BEGINNING TO RESPOND
TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. SOME OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE...IN PARTICULAR THE TYPICALLY
BEST-PERFORMING GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS...ARE NOW TAKING DEBBY
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST
PERIOD. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE TRACK FORECASTS FROM THESE TWO
MODELS HAVE NOW COME INTO RATHER CLOSE AGREEMENT. THE U.K. MET.
OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL IS BY THE FAR THE FASTEST AND SHOWS THE CYCLONE
NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IN 4 DAYS OR LESS. WHEREAS THE LATTER
SCENARIO SEEMS UNREALISTIC...THE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS A FASTER TRACK ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC THAN
THE PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTIONS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LIES
BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 29.0N 84.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 29.0N 84.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 29.0N 83.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 29.1N 83.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 29.3N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 29/0600Z 29.9N 80.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 30.5N 78.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 01/0600Z 31.5N 76.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[northjaxpro]

Good morning! Just checked the gauge and overnight and accumulated an additional 4.25 inches to bring the total just over 11 inches at my location for this event with Debby thus far. Rain has started again now.

NHC now thinking forward speed of Debby may pick up a bit beginning late Thursday into Friday while the system moves across this area. I really hope it does that because folks the flooding levels are already getting to critical stages on the creeks and rivers across the area, especially the Black Creek in Clay County, already above flood stage. It may exceed the record stage of 25 feet.

[TampaFl]

5:00AM position - map courtesy BoatUS.com.

[TheBurn]

10:45z VIS / IR (Day / Night)



-

10:45z JSL

[tolakram]

Early Visible

[Peach]

As of 4:45 am, the St. Mary's river in northeast Florida has reached flood stage (13.8 feet, flood stage 12.0) She is expected to reach 18 feet by tomorrow, then subside. Flash flood warnings in most NE Florida counties. The Little St. Mary's down the road from where I live has not yet reached US 90. A couple of roads Florida to SE Georgia are underwater. Where I live, 9-10 inches since Sunday night, forecast, 3-5 more by tonight, then easing off, we are under a flash flood warning but so far we have been lucky. Advisories are stay inside for those in low lying areas. I am trying to find out if SR 121 is one of the roads under water as of now, hope to know soon. Not bad here so far, electricity on, almost no winds.

[NDG]

Seems to me that she is below the 29th latitudethis moving, slowly moving ESE.

[crimi481]

You beat me to it. Yes - A move more south and east for sure. Heading for Tampa area?
This should change track a bit
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html