ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Aric Dunn]

00z gfs is on the verge of doing what i was I figured would happens. each run is getting closer and closer to being completly left behind and possible wobble back to the florida east coast. that 500mb ridging this run is slight farther east and a little more defined. could you imagine that rain issue then .. causing less of a northerly component.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 260358
AF309 0504A DEBBY HDOB 34 20120626
035100 2854N 08452W 8459 01400 9922 +196 +183 186005 007 000 003 03
035130 2855N 08451W 8462 01396 9923 +196 +180 148009 010 000 001 03
035200 2857N 08451W 8460 01398 9924 +194 +178 120012 013 000 002 00
035230 2859N 08451W 8463 01396 9924 +194 +177 103015 016 000 003 03
035300 2900N 08451W 8459 01399 9927 +190 +179 101017 018 000 003 00
035330 2902N 08451W 8459 01403 9930 +190 +178 099020 022 002 002 00
035400 2904N 08451W 8458 01407 9929 +193 +184 097020 021 002 001 00
035430 2905N 08451W 8465 01402 9929 +198 +187 100019 020 002 001 00
035500 2907N 08450W 8461 01408 9934 +191 //// 097018 018 004 002 01
035530 2909N 08450W 8463 01405 9936 +192 //// 100018 019 001 002 01
035600 2910N 08451W 8462 01410 9947 +178 //// 097020 022 011 002 01
035630 2912N 08451W 8460 01413 9949 +178 //// 095021 022 014 002 01
035700 2914N 08452W 8461 01416 9953 +177 //// 093021 022 007 000 01
035730 2915N 08452W 8461 01419 9956 +174 //// 090021 021 005 002 01
035800 2917N 08453W 8461 01419 9961 +171 //// 084021 022 005 001 05
035830 2918N 08453W 8463 01419 9962 +172 //// 079021 022 007 000 01
035900 2920N 08454W 8459 01424 9966 +170 //// 077019 021 004 002 01
035930 2922N 08455W 8458 01427 9967 +168 //// 066020 021 003 001 01
040000 2923N 08455W 8460 01425 9970 +165 //// 060022 023 005 001 01
040030 2925N 08456W 8461 01426 9973 +165 //// 060023 023 005 001 01
$$
;

Indeed, 992mb.

[Evil Jeremy]

[Aric Dunn]

I think the trough's got it.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

well not completely its just in a spot where the riding is not strong enough to hold it. its drifting and there really are no large scale systems completely move it in any direction.

[Aric Dunn]

well hopefully they do one more pass...

[cycloneye]

EJ, did recon found center more south on last pass?

[Evil Jeremy]

00z gfs is on the verge of doing what i was I figured would happens. each run is getting closer and closer to being completly left behind and possible wobble back to the florida east coast.

But that......... the GFS.......... no........

Aric, please stop talking. Your only making it worse lol.

[Aric Dunn]

00z gfs is on the verge of doing what i was I figured would happens. each run is getting closer and closer to being completly left behind and possible wobble back to the florida east coast.

But that......... the GFS.......... no........

Aric, please stop talking. Your only making it worse lol.

what do you mean worse ? lol

[Evil Jeremy]

Recon is likely finishing up, I cant imagine they will head south and then back north again for a few more center passes.

I am going to pass out soon, can someone take over images please?

[Evil Jeremy]

well hopefully they do one more pass...

Doubt it. They have been out there for about 5 hours now. To do another pass would be to go south and north again, adding 1 1/2 hours at least.

[Dave]

Recon is likely finishing up, I cant imagine they will head south and then back north again for a few more center passes.

I am going to pass out soon, can someone take over images please?

Hate to see you pass out so I'll get them for awhile.

[CronkPSU]

Thanks to all for the help in answering my question about central Florida weather for Tuesday!

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 260408
AF309 0504A DEBBY HDOB 35 20120626
040100 2926N 08456W 8461 01428 9975 +164 //// 061023 024 010 004 01
040130 2928N 08457W 8455 01433 //// +162 //// 080021 024 031 008 01
040200 2929N 08458W 8503 01383 //// +149 //// 081021 024 042 006 05
040230 2931N 08458W 8448 01443 //// +152 //// 076027 029 039 005 01
040300 2933N 08459W 8464 01428 //// +156 //// 067031 033 040 004 01
040330 2934N 08459W 8458 01433 //// +162 //// 069032 034 040 003 01
040400 2936N 08500W 8460 01433 //// +149 //// 061040 043 037 003 05
040430 2936N 08502W 8457 01435 //// +149 //// 053047 052 033 002 05
040500 2937N 08504W 8457 01436 //// +159 //// 044057 059 045 004 01
040530 2937N 08506W 8380 01507 9975 +155 //// 042061 062 098 019 05
040600 2937N 08506W 8380 01507 9976 +153 //// 042055 056 036 000 05
040630 2938N 08510W 8053 01859 9979 +137 //// 043052 053 032 000 05
040700 2939N 08512W 8015 01901 //// +132 //// 043054 054 025 004 01
040730 2939N 08514W 8029 01885 //// +138 //// 042054 055 025 004 01
040800 2939N 08516W 8025 01890 //// +138 //// 037051 053 026 005 01
040830 2940N 08518W 8023 01892 //// +123 //// 034056 058 026 004 01
040900 2940N 08520W 8025 01889 //// +130 //// 035059 062 045 006 05
040930 2941N 08522W 8026 01884 9989 +137 //// 035059 063 /// /// 05
041000 2941N 08524W 8022 01900 9993 +136 //// 041059 061 030 009 01
041030 2942N 08526W 8024 01903 //// +114 //// 041062 063 030 009 01
$$
;

Looks to be homeward bound.

[Evil Jeremy]

EJ, did recon found center more south on last pass?

Yes, here are tonight's 3 VDM fixes so far:

[Aric Dunn]

well hopefully they do one more pass...

Doubt it. They have been out there for about 5 hours now. To do another pass would be to go south and north again, adding 1 1/2 hours at least.

well... was just hoping they would be able to smooth out he motion with another center fix. those do not really help much. except that they are following the last two GFS runs more closely with a slight ese motion...

[cycloneye]

EJ, did recon found center more south on last pass?

Yes, here are tonight's 3 VDM fixes so far:

http://img521.imageshack.us/img521/6361/debbyx.jpg

It may be doing a mini loop.

[Aric Dunn]

EJ, did recon found center more south on last pass?

Yes, here are tonight's 3 VDM fixes so far:

http://img521.imageshack.us/img521/6361/debbyx.jpg

It may be doing a mini loop.

well, you would think so but thats not the direction a cyclonic loop normally takes in the northern hemisphere. should be doing a counter clockwise loop not a clockwise one..

[Evil Jeremy]

00z gfs is on the verge of doing what i was I figured would happens. each run is getting closer and closer to being completly left behind and possible wobble back to the florida east coast.

But that......... the GFS.......... no........

Aric, please stop talking. Your only making it worse lol.

what do you mean worse ? lol

The last thing any of us want is Debby to stick around on the Florida east coast, much less wobble back to us.

[brunota2003]

According to the POD, they are supposed to be on station until 2 am EDT...unless base called them home early.

[Aric Dunn]

well of course not... but how am I making worse. ?