ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[ozonepete]

This has been happening for days now. MLC fires up north or northeast of the LLC and the LLC follows along eventually and starts to get under it. Then MLC fires up again out ahead of the LLC and the LLC follows it. Follow the convective bursts and convective banding and you will see where it's going. It's a very slow process, but today's sequence still points to a NE to East motion.

Here's what Stacy Stewart said in the 11PM disco:

IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY LARGE-SCALE STEERING FLOW...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF DEBBY WILL CLOSELY FOLLOW ANY DEEP CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY TO NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK THROUGH DAY 3...AND IS THEN A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

[Aric Dunn]

This has probably shattered the the record for the single highest rain event in history. im seeing rain estimates over 30 inches !!! with fay Melbourne reported around 28 inches... but right now there seems to be no end in site for the next few hours... not sure how to even explain how crazy that amount of rain is.

[SouthFloridawx]

More of a Southeasterly movement.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 260308
AF309 0504A DEBBY HDOB 29 20120626
030100 2820N 08552W 8462 01451 0002 +163 //// 345036 038 018 002 01
030130 2819N 08553W 8461 01454 0001 +166 +164 346038 039 018 003 00
030200 2818N 08554W 8470 01444 0002 +168 +166 344038 040 020 001 00
030230 2816N 08556W 8459 01459 0004 +166 //// 342038 039 018 001 01
030300 2815N 08557W 8461 01456 0004 +170 +170 344039 040 016 002 00
030330 2814N 08559W 8462 01456 0005 +170 +169 344039 039 014 002 00
030400 2813N 08600W 8461 01460 0006 +170 //// 344039 039 017 001 01
030430 2811N 08602W 8462 01460 0006 +171 +168 345039 039 013 001 00
030500 2810N 08603W 8461 01462 0008 +171 +164 346038 038 011 002 00
030530 2809N 08604W 8462 01461 0008 +175 +166 346038 038 011 001 00
030600 2807N 08606W 8461 01464 0009 +175 +167 346039 040 011 002 00
030630 2806N 08607W 8462 01464 0010 +177 +164 347040 040 010 001 00
030700 2805N 08609W 8461 01465 0010 +180 +162 348039 039 012 000 00
030730 2804N 08610W 8462 01467 0011 +179 +163 349038 038 011 000 00
030800 2802N 08612W 8461 01469 0012 +180 +164 349038 038 010 001 00
030830 2801N 08613W 8463 01467 0012 +180 +167 349036 036 010 000 00
030900 2800N 08614W 8462 01470 0013 +181 +168 347036 037 010 001 00
030930 2758N 08616W 8459 01473 0014 +181 +166 347036 036 005 002 00
031000 2757N 08617W 8463 01472 0020 +175 +165 343036 036 006 001 00
031030 2756N 08619W 8461 01474 0021 +175 +165 346037 037 003 001 00
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

URNT12 KNHC 260303
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042012
A. 26/02:38:30Z
B. 29 deg 01 min N
084 deg 53 min W
C. 850 mb 1368 m
D. 26 kt
E. 046 deg 52 nm
F. 162 deg 30 kt
G. 048 deg 63 nm
H. 994 mb
I. 17 C / 1490 m
J. 19 C / 1493 m
K. 19 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 7 nm
P. AF309 0504A DEBBY OB 06
MAX FL WIND 59 KT W QUAD 23:33:20Z
MAX FL TEMP 21 C 334 / 17 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[Evil Jeremy]

Looks like short term motion is ESE, based on Recon obs and Shortwave loops:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-ir2.html

[SouthFloridawx]

Looks like short term motion is ESE, based on Recon obs and Shortwave loops:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-ir2.html

Also looks to be moving a little faster.

[Evil Jeremy]

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1105 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR...
NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
SOUTHEASTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
WAKULLA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 515 AM EDT TUESDAY

* AT 1101 PM EDT...EXTREME FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS WAKULLA
COUNTY...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOPCHOPPY RIVER INCLUDING THE TOWN
OF SOPCHOPPY. WATER HAS ALREADY ENTERED HOMES IN SOPCHOPPY AND THE
SOPCHOPPY RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CREST FAR ABOVE ITS PREVIOUS RECORD
CREST. SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY OCCURRING ACROSS
RURAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LIBERTY AND NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN
COUNTIES.

THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION AND MANY AREAS THAT HAVE NOT
FLOODED IN RECENT MEMORY WILL FLOOD TONIGHT.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SAINT MARKS
AND CRAWFORDVILLE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE.

[Aric Dunn]

on a side note... upper ridging is beginning to move over the southern part of the circ and depending on what happens with the movement ... it could end up in a much better environment before landfall not that it will intensify m a lot but that would aid convection which right now no one needs in florida.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like short term motion is ESE, based on Recon obs and Shortwave loops:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-ir2.html

Also looks to be moving a little faster.

well technically following that vort earlier since it appears that ended up taking over its been heading on a slight southerly course since around 5.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 260318
AF309 0504A DEBBY HDOB 30 20120626
031100 2755N 08620W 8459 01476 0022 +175 +163 345036 037 001 002 00
031130 2753N 08622W 8461 01475 0024 +175 +162 344035 035 000 000 03
031200 2752N 08622W 8458 01481 0029 +170 +168 339032 033 /// /// 03
031230 2751N 08621W 8462 01474 0029 +167 //// 339029 030 000 003 05
031300 2751N 08619W 8462 01473 0024 +169 +167 336030 031 001 002 03
031330 2751N 08617W 8462 01473 0024 +167 //// 337032 033 001 001 05
031400 2751N 08615W 8460 01473 0022 +170 +164 334033 033 001 002 03
031430 2751N 08613W 8462 01471 0020 +170 +164 333034 034 002 003 00
031500 2751N 08611W 8462 01469 0017 +174 +171 337034 035 002 002 00
031530 2751N 08609W 8462 01467 0014 +177 +168 338035 035 006 000 00
031600 2751N 08607W 8461 01468 0013 +175 +169 336035 035 005 000 00
031630 2751N 08605W 8459 01470 0014 +175 +169 336035 035 007 000 00
031700 2751N 08603W 8461 01466 0014 +173 +167 334034 035 008 000 00
031730 2751N 08601W 8462 01466 0014 +172 +168 332034 035 011 001 00
031800 2751N 08559W 8461 01467 0014 +170 +168 331034 034 011 002 00
031830 2751N 08557W 8462 01464 0013 +170 +167 331034 034 004 002 00
031900 2751N 08555W 8461 01462 0013 +169 +166 330035 035 006 001 00
031930 2751N 08553W 8461 01464 0012 +168 //// 331035 036 009 000 01
032000 2751N 08551W 8462 01460 0015 +161 //// 327033 033 008 001 01
032030 2751N 08549W 8461 01464 0015 +160 //// 328033 033 010 001 01
$$
;

[ozonepete]

Looks like short term motion is ESE, based on Recon obs and Shortwave loops:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-ir2.html

Also looks to be moving a little faster.

well technically following that vort earlier since it appears that ended up taking over its been heading on a slight southerly course since around 5.

That's part of the final completion of the cyclonic loop it was doing today. That winds up just a part of the long run ENE motion.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Currently winds are gusting to 58 mph on the Sunshine Skyway Bridge North Tower. This morning the winds gusted to 70 mph in those squalls.
http://bridgemonitoring.com/bridges/Skyway/sky.htm

[ozonepete]

This has probably shattered the the record for the single highest rain event in history. im seeing rain estimates over 30 inches !!! with fay Melbourne reported around 28 inches... but right now there seems to be no end in site for the next few hours... not sure how to even explain how crazy that amount of rain is.

Me either. This is incredibly bad. I really couldn't be sure at first about Dr. Greg Forbes prediction of 40-50 inches in some areas but it sure looks pretty likely now. What's really bad is the worst flooding hasn't even started to occur.

[Dave]

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1119 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

...FORECAST FLOODING CHANGED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY FOR THE FOLLOWING
RIVERS IN FLORIDA...
ST. MARKS RIVER NEAR NEWPORT ON OLD MAGNOLIA RD AFFECTING WAKULLA COUNTY

.EXTREME RAINFALL RATES FROM TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ARE CONTRIBUTING TO RAPID
RIVER RISES ON THE ST. MARKS RIVER NEAR NEWPORT THIS EVENING. THE FORECAST
CREST HAS BEEN INCREASED...AND THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO APPROACH AND CREST
JUST BELOW MAJOR FLOOD STAGE. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION AS THE
RAPID RIVER RISES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. NIGHT TIME FLOODING IS VERY DANGEROUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL PERSONS WITH INTEREST ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE PRECAUTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY AND HEAD TO HIGHER GROUND AS THE ST. MARKS RIVER
WILL LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE RAPIDLY. DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED
AREAS. IF YOU SEE FLOOD WATERS...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DO NOT DROWN.

[Aric Dunn]

Also looks to be moving a little faster.

well technically following that vort earlier since it appears that ended up taking over its been heading on a slight southerly course since around 5.

That's part of the final completion of the cyclonic loop it was doing today. That winds up just a part of the long run ENE motion.

agreed, I have not looked at the relative position from earlier recon fixes but it looks slightly farther south than those so even then overall motion has technically had a slight southerly component.

[ozonepete]

GFS still hitting the track on the nose, btw.

[Aric Dunn]

I thought for little bit the rain was starting to relax but nope its now making a come again over the same areas. craziness.

[MGC]

What is the record for the most rain in a tropcial cyclone in the USA? Is it still Alvin Texas?....MGC