ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[ozonepete]

This has been happening for days now. MLC fires up north or northeast of the LLC and the LLC follows along eventually and starts to get under it. Then MLC fires up again out ahead of the LLC and the LLC follows it. Follow the convective bursts and convective banding and you will see where it's going. It's a very slow process, but today's sequence still points to a NE to East motion.

This is what Debby has done her entire lifespan. I totally agree with you. GFS has nailed Debby from the beginning and the system will crawl across the northern peninsula the next 2-3 days at least.

Yup, Jax. There isn't anything in the prog charts to dispute it right now. Of course things could change, but the only thing I see that has a chance of changing is a little faster eastward motion than forecast. But that still puts you guys under the gun for historic floods. Really hope you all get through this ok. Hang in there and pray for a speed-up...

[weatherSnoop]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Sorry for missed image...had to warn my sister of flash flood warning

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 260218
AF309 0504A DEBBY HDOB 24 20120626
021100 2937N 08416W 8461 01440 9981 +175 //// 157027 028 025 003 01
021130 2936N 08418W 8462 01435 9976 +179 //// 153027 027 025 002 01
021200 2935N 08419W 8462 01434 9975 +179 //// 156027 028 023 001 01
021230 2934N 08420W 8461 01434 9971 +180 //// 156025 026 023 002 01
021300 2933N 08422W 8462 01433 9970 +182 //// 156025 026 022 002 01
021330 2932N 08423W 8463 01431 9968 +182 //// 156024 025 024 001 01
021400 2931N 08425W 8459 01434 9965 +185 +183 163023 023 025 001 00
021430 2930N 08426W 8461 01431 9964 +186 +182 166022 022 024 000 00
021500 2929N 08428W 8462 01428 9961 +190 +181 167022 022 023 002 00
021530 2928N 08429W 8458 01432 9960 +190 +181 166019 021 022 002 00
021600 2927N 08430W 8462 01427 9960 +189 +182 163018 019 022 002 00
021630 2926N 08432W 8463 01424 9959 +186 +182 164016 016 021 002 00
021700 2925N 08433W 8462 01423 9957 +190 +178 162015 015 022 000 00
021730 2924N 08435W 8463 01421 9955 +188 +182 161013 014 020 001 00
021800 2923N 08436W 8462 01420 9954 +185 +183 163011 012 019 001 00
021830 2922N 08438W 8459 01420 9953 +185 +184 148009 010 014 001 00
021900 2921N 08439W 8461 01419 9952 +183 //// 128006 008 011 002 01
021930 2920N 08441W 8458 01423 9953 +180 //// 126007 009 009 002 01
022000 2919N 08442W 8459 01419 9953 +180 //// 133011 011 010 002 05
022030 2918N 08444W 8459 01421 9956 +178 //// 132014 015 /// /// 05
$$
;

[HouTXmetro]

Can anybody post the latest runs of the models that send it west? Just Curious.

[CronkPSU]

Amateur question...Why are all the websites and tv channels expecting central Florida to get huge amounts of rain tomorrow and Wednesday? Looks pretty dry to me and more dry air keeps getting into the system

[vaffie]

Can anybody post the latest runs of the models that send it west? Just Curious.

Some are here: http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/ ... el%20plots
Others are here: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, you are not kidding ozonepete. It is really raining hard right now at my location. There is no telling how much more rain will fall overnight here. I had over 7 inches earlier today, and much more will be added to that when I check the gauge in the morning. The flooding is going to be potentially at levels we have never seen in this area.

[jdray]

NWS Jax just issued Flash Flood warnings for metro Jax and Nassau county.

News4jax is stating that my neck of the woods is sitting at 12 inches over the last 24 hrs. Black Creek is going to get horrendously bad. Thankfully I do have a flood plain behind me and not on Black Creek. We had a flash flood behind my neighborhood, 2-3 feet of fast running water turned a dirt road into a river for a few hours.

Its been heavy tonight so far.

Look at the radar presentation, you can see the bands race north through Florida and hit the high pressure sitting north of us. Waycross is a storm here or there while I-10 is the bulls eye.

[stormhunter7]

We just passed the previous record on the Sopchoppy River with the lastest rivr stage report of 31.41 feet!

[weatherSnoop]

Amateur question...Why are all the websites and tv channels expecting central Florida to get huge amounts of rain tomorrow and Wednesday? Looks pretty dry to me and more dry air keeps getting into the system

The panhandle is gettinging hammered right now..Appilacola, eastward to the Atlantic.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 260228
AF309 0504A DEBBY HDOB 25 20120626
022100 2919N 08445W 8469 01410 9954 +179 //// 118012 013 014 002 01
022130 2921N 08447W 8457 01420 9951 +180 //// 097012 013 011 001 01
022200 2922N 08448W 8464 01413 9949 +184 //// 087014 014 015 002 01
022230 2923N 08450W 8462 01415 9952 +179 //// 095015 015 016 003 01
022300 2924N 08451W 8463 01415 9952 +180 //// 099014 015 016 001 01
022330 2925N 08453W 8459 01418 9952 +180 //// 094017 019 014 002 01
022400 2926N 08454W 8462 01415 9949 +184 +183 092021 022 018 002 00
022430 2928N 08456W 8464 01413 9948 +189 +182 090021 022 016 001 00
022500 2929N 08457W 8459 01421 9948 +190 +180 086020 020 014 002 00
022530 2930N 08459W 8456 01424 9947 +193 +174 081022 023 012 002 00
022600 2931N 08500W 8469 01412 9948 +191 +181 084024 024 014 002 00
022630 2933N 08502W 8459 01422 9949 +190 +182 081024 025 018 003 00
022700 2934N 08503W 8458 01424 9954 +185 //// 080027 028 019 004 05
022730 2934N 08505W 8456 01430 9956 +185 //// 067029 029 /// /// 05
022800 2933N 08506W 8469 01417 9954 +187 //// 062026 027 /// /// 05
022830 2931N 08505W 8463 01418 9951 +186 //// 066024 025 019 003 05
022900 2930N 08505W 8461 01417 9952 +181 //// 070022 023 013 004 01
022930 2928N 08504W 8463 01415 9949 +185 +182 069022 022 015 002 00
023000 2927N 08504W 8459 01416 9945 +188 +179 063021 021 010 002 00
023030 2925N 08504W 8462 01414 9943 +190 +175 064020 021 008 000 00
$$
;

Near, but not right in, the center.

[robbielyn]

Looks like the majority of rain is appalatch to jax. Rain sporadic here in west central fl. Better than yesterday thats for sure. Withlacoochee hit flood stage by thurs. Torcon 4 for tomorrow.

[weatherSnoop]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[CronkPSU]

Amateur question...Why are all the websites and tv channels expecting central Florida to get huge amounts of rain tomorrow and Wednesday? Looks pretty dry to me and more dry air keeps getting into the system

The panhandle is gettinging hammered right now..Appilacola, eastward to the Atlantic.

Sorry, bpoorly phrased question, tally to jax is getting hammered, the storm is moving slightly northeast, but there is hardly anything south of that big convection and nothing south of Orlando so why are we expected to get heavy rain tomorrow as this continues moving slowly northeast

[Evil Jeremy]

The big name models still send this one East, and it's really too late for major changes. Debby is already being tugged East.

[robbielyn]

40-50 inches of rain in panhandle possible per dr. Greg forbes. And no that is not a typo

[cycloneye]

WTNT34 KNHC 260233
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
1000 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2012

...TORRENTIAL RAINS AND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTH FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.2N 85.1W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM W OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF MEXICO
BEACH FLORIDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM MEXICO BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.1 WEST. DEBBY IS
DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. SLOW AND
POSSIBLE ERRATIC MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 MILES...390 KM..
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER
RADAR DATA INDICATE WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH...115 KM/H...ARE
LIKELY OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND FROM APALACHICOLA
NORTHEASTWARD TO SHELL POINT IN THE WESTERN BIG BEND AREA OF
FLORIDA.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA GULF COAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

STORM SURGE...ALTHOUGH DEBBY HAS WEAKENED SOME TODAY...COASTAL
FLOODING IS NOT YET DIMINISHING. THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE
AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE
FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING
DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND AT THE TIME OF THE NEXT HIGH TIDE TUESDAY
MORNING...

APALACHEE BAY TO WACCASASSA BAY...3 TO 5 FT
FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF WACCASASSA BAY...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE THE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...6 TO 12 INCHES
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...AND 3 TO 5 INCHES IN SOUTH FLORIDA
AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTH FLORIDA.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/ROBERTS

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.2N 85.1W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM W OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Not buying into.this westward solution this time. The euro burned me so bad still smoldering from it. Maybe if the gfs shows it I might believe it

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 260238
AF309 0504A DEBBY HDOB 26 20120626
023100 2923N 08503W 8461 01414 9943 +190 +174 067020 020 001 001 00
023130 2921N 08503W 8463 01412 9942 +192 +174 068018 019 000 001 00
023200 2920N 08503W 8459 01415 9940 +194 +173 058017 018 000 003 03
023230 2918N 08502W 8462 01411 9937 +201 +170 062016 017 010 002 03
023300 2917N 08501W 8461 01414 9935 +205 +167 059013 014 015 002 00
023330 2915N 08500W 8460 01413 9938 +197 +177 061013 014 009 002 00
023400 2914N 08459W 8459 01414 9942 +188 +184 058012 014 004 001 00
023430 2913N 08458W 8463 01409 9943 +185 //// 060011 012 006 001 01
023500 2911N 08457W 8461 01410 9945 +178 //// 060008 009 002 003 05
023530 2910N 08456W 8461 01412 9947 +175 //// 082007 008 000 000 05
023600 2908N 08455W 8461 01409 9946 +177 //// 075008 008 000 001 05
023630 2907N 08455W 8461 01409 9945 +180 +171 086008 009 000 003 00
023700 2905N 08454W 8459 01408 9944 +179 +169 091007 008 000 003 03
023730 2904N 08454W 8460 01408 9947 +172 //// 057006 006 001 002 01
023800 2902N 08453W 8464 01405 9944 +174 //// 039005 006 000 002 05
023830 2900N 08453W 8459 01410 9941 +179 //// 050003 003 000 002 05
023900 2859N 08453W 8462 01405 9935 +186 +183 050005 006 006 002 00
023930 2857N 08452W 8462 01404 9932 +192 +189 150004 005 001 003 00
024000 2855N 08452W 8461 01403 9932 +189 //// 176006 007 004 001 01
024030 2854N 08451W 8461 01404 9930 +191 //// 150009 012 002 003 01
$$