ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[CrazyC83]

Starting to come in. 30 minutes ago:

URNT15 KNHC 260126
AF309 0504A DEBBY HDOB 16 20120626
005100 2628N 08252W 8462 01502 0063 +160 //// 227045 045 035 001 01
005130 2627N 08251W 8459 01505 0063 +160 //// 226044 044 034 001 01
005200 2626N 08250W 8462 01500 0064 +160 //// 227042 043 033 000 01
005230 2625N 08249W 8463 01503 0062 +162 //// 226044 045 032 001 01
005300 2623N 08248W 8461 01504 0062 +163 +162 225044 044 032 000 00
005330 2622N 08247W 8462 01504 0066 +160 //// 223043 043 030 001 01
005400 2621N 08246W 8462 01505 0068 +158 //// 222044 044 032 001 01
005430 2620N 08245W 8462 01505 0070 +156 //// 221044 044 033 001 01
005500 2618N 08244W 8459 01510 0070 +160 //// 223042 043 032 001 01
005530 2617N 08243W 8463 01506 0071 +160 +160 220044 044 032 001 00
005600 2616N 08242W 8461 01510 0070 +160 +153 220043 043 033 001 00
005630 2615N 08241W 8459 01511 0070 +165 +149 220041 042 032 001 00
005700 2613N 08240W 8462 01509 0071 +165 +151 219041 041 032 001 00
005730 2612N 08239W 8462 01510 0073 +160 +160 219042 043 031 001 00
005800 2611N 08238W 8459 01513 0076 +156 +150 219044 045 030 001 00
005830 2610N 08237W 8461 01514 0077 +160 +145 218044 044 028 001 00
005900 2608N 08237W 8461 01516 0078 +160 +148 217043 044 029 001 00
005930 2607N 08236W 8462 01513 0077 +160 +154 216043 043 026 001 00
010000 2606N 08235W 8461 01515 0078 +160 +159 218044 044 027 001 00
010030 2605N 08234W 8463 01514 0077 +160 //// 218043 043 026 001 01
$$
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[tallywx]

"The highest recorded discharge from any inland Florida spring is 1,910 ft3/s (1,234 Mgal/d), measured at Wakulla Springs." That was recorded in 1974. Average is 391 ft3/sec.

http://fl.water.usgs.gov/PDF_files/fs15 ... echler.pdf

We're currently approaching 1,700 ft3/s there:

http://www.nwfwmd.state.fl.us/hydrology ... 652-1d.htm

[loon]

what is happening the last few frames here?

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI2_ir_loop.gif

is that the decapitation another poster was talking about? Sorry I forgot the poster that said it.. anyway, convection really took NE last few frames..

loon

[CrazyC83]

Missing two sets - 17 and 18.

URNT15 KNHC 260129
AF309 0504A DEBBY HDOB 19 20120626
012100 2705N 08255W 8461 01489 0046 +162 //// 204037 038 034 002 01
012130 2707N 08256W 8462 01487 0043 +164 +160 203039 039 034 002 00
012200 2709N 08256W 8462 01489 0047 +161 //// 204039 039 034 002 01
012230 2710N 08257W 8461 01488 0042 +167 +158 203040 040 034 000 00
012300 2712N 08258W 8461 01489 0044 +160 //// 204040 040 033 002 01
012330 2714N 08258W 8461 01487 0043 +163 //// 203040 040 033 002 01
012400 2716N 08259W 8461 01487 0041 +164 +162 200041 041 032 002 00
012430 2718N 08300W 8462 01483 0036 +170 +151 198042 043 032 001 00
012500 2719N 08301W 8461 01484 0036 +172 +150 201044 045 033 002 00
012530 2721N 08301W 8460 01485 0032 +177 +145 202046 046 034 001 00
012600 2723N 08302W 8461 01482 0035 +169 +153 199045 046 034 001 00
012630 2725N 08303W 8459 01483 0034 +171 +151 199046 046 034 001 00
012700 2727N 08303W 8462 01481 0032 +172 +151 199047 047 034 001 00
012730 2728N 08304W 8462 01482 0031 +173 +150 201047 047 034 001 00
012800 2730N 08305W 8462 01480 0033 +167 +155 200047 047 035 001 00
012830 2732N 08306W 8461 01481 0033 +164 //// 204050 051 035 001 01
012900 2734N 08306W 8461 01478 //// +161 //// 203049 050 036 002 01
012930 2736N 08307W 8459 01479 //// +152 //// 206053 055 037 004 01
013000 2738N 08308W 8460 01477 0029 +164 //// 206055 055 035 000 01
013030 2739N 08308W 8461 01477 0029 +165 //// 208056 056 036 001 01
$$
;

[Hurricaneman]

It seems like there is a low of some type 400 miles south of Debby, could that be something thats keeping Debby from really organizing

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[northjaxpro]

NWS Jax just issued Flash Flood warnings for metro Jax and Nassau county.

[Dean4Storms]

what is happening the last few frames here?

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI2_ir_loop.gif

is that the decapitation another poster was talking about? Sorry I forgot the poster that said it.. anyway, convection really took NE last few frames..

loon

Probably the upper level clouds feeling the pull of the trough to its north now swinging off the Carolina coast.

[weatherSnoop]

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Images catching up, too

[mutley]

what is happening the last few frames here?

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI2_ir_loop.gif

is that the decapitation another poster was talking about? Sorry I forgot the poster that said it.. anyway, convection really took NE last few frames..

loon

That sudden burst of change is, I think, an abnormality in the regular sequence of images that make up the loop. In other words, if the sequence was regular, the change would appear steady and gradual.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 260138
AF309 0504A DEBBY HDOB 20 20120626
013100 2741N 08309W 8461 01476 0029 +163 //// 208054 055 038 001 01
013130 2743N 08310W 8462 01473 0025 +167 //// 207054 055 039 001 01
013200 2745N 08311W 8461 01472 0023 +168 //// 207054 055 039 002 01
013230 2747N 08311W 8461 01470 0021 +170 //// 205054 055 038 001 01
013300 2749N 08312W 8461 01470 0018 +172 //// 207053 054 039 001 01
013330 2750N 08313W 8461 01470 0016 +173 +173 210055 055 039 002 00
013400 2752N 08313W 8463 01468 0018 +168 //// 208055 056 039 002 01
013430 2754N 08314W 8461 01469 0017 +169 //// 208053 054 040 003 01
013500 2756N 08315W 8463 01463 0015 +170 //// 206050 052 037 004 01
013530 2758N 08316W 8460 01466 0016 +168 //// 205051 052 040 002 01
013600 2800N 08316W 8462 01464 //// +158 //// 204050 051 041 002 01
013630 2801N 08317W 8460 01465 //// +165 //// 206046 048 042 002 01
013700 2803N 08318W 8458 01467 //// +168 //// 210047 050 040 003 01
013730 2805N 08318W 8463 01462 //// +163 //// 211048 049 041 005 01
013800 2807N 08319W 8455 01467 0009 +170 //// 206047 048 037 002 01
013830 2809N 08320W 8461 01461 0006 +175 //// 203045 046 037 002 01
013900 2810N 08321W 8463 01459 0005 +176 //// 202045 045 039 000 01
013930 2812N 08321W 8462 01459 0003 +176 //// 201045 045 038 000 01
014000 2814N 08322W 8461 01460 0003 +177 //// 204043 045 039 002 01
014030 2816N 08323W 8462 01459 0002 +176 //// 207042 044 039 002 01
$$
;

[weatherSnoop]

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[SouthFloridawx]

what is happening the last few frames here?

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI2_ir_loop.gif

is that the decapitation another poster was talking about? Sorry I forgot the poster that said it.. anyway, convection really took NE last few frames..

loon

That sudden burst of change is, I think, an abnormality in the regular sequence of images that make up the loop. In other words, if the sequence was regular, the change would appear steady and gradual.

Bryan Norcross mentioned it might be a factor.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 260148
AF309 0504A DEBBY HDOB 21 20120626
014100 2818N 08323W 8461 01459 9999 +179 //// 203042 043 038 001 01
014130 2819N 08324W 8463 01454 9997 +180 //// 202041 041 036 002 01
014200 2821N 08325W 8459 01457 9999 +175 //// 200041 042 035 001 01
014230 2823N 08326W 8463 01452 0000 +175 //// 199041 041 034 002 01
014300 2825N 08326W 8462 01454 9998 +177 //// 199040 040 033 001 01
014330 2827N 08327W 8462 01454 9999 +175 //// 199040 040 035 002 01
014400 2828N 08328W 8461 01454 9999 +175 //// 200040 040 036 002 01
014430 2830N 08329W 8461 01454 9996 +176 //// 200041 042 034 004 01
014500 2832N 08329W 8464 01449 9996 +174 //// 195039 041 032 003 01
014530 2834N 08330W 8462 01454 9997 +172 //// 192043 045 028 003 01
014600 2836N 08331W 8461 01454 9999 +170 //// 194040 041 026 002 01
014630 2837N 08331W 8458 01455 9996 +171 //// 195040 040 027 002 01
014700 2839N 08332W 8465 01448 9993 +176 //// 194040 041 030 002 01
014730 2841N 08333W 8459 01453 9990 +179 +176 194041 042 032 000 00
014800 2843N 08334W 8462 01449 9988 +182 +175 192041 041 033 002 00
014830 2845N 08334W 8461 01449 9987 +186 +172 192039 040 033 002 00
014900 2847N 08335W 8462 01449 9989 +180 +174 190040 040 034 002 00
014930 2848N 08336W 8459 01452 9991 +177 +173 187040 041 033 003 00
015000 2850N 08337W 8465 01445 9990 +180 +171 188039 040 034 002 00
015030 2852N 08337W 8461 01449 9991 +179 +172 188039 040 033 002 00
$$
;

[weatherSnoop]

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[ozonepete]

This has been happening for days now. MLC fires up north or northeast of the LLC and the LLC follows along eventually and starts to get under it. Then MLC fires up again out ahead of the LLC and the LLC follows it. Follow the convective bursts and convective banding and you will see where it's going. It's a very slow process, but today's sequence still points to a NE to East motion.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 260158
AF309 0504A DEBBY HDOB 22 20120626
015100 2854N 08338W 8462 01448 9990 +176 +175 188040 041 032 001 00
015130 2856N 08339W 8461 01447 9985 +181 +173 189040 041 032 001 00
015200 2858N 08339W 8460 01447 9985 +181 +169 188042 042 032 000 00
015230 2859N 08340W 8461 01445 9986 +183 +166 187040 041 030 003 00
015300 2901N 08341W 8460 01449 9987 +180 +166 186041 041 030 002 00
015330 2903N 08342W 8461 01446 9987 +180 +169 185041 041 031 001 00
015400 2905N 08342W 8462 01442 9986 +176 +173 184041 042 031 001 00
015430 2907N 08343W 8461 01446 9988 +175 +173 183041 041 028 001 00
015500 2909N 08344W 8462 01445 9991 +171 //// 181041 042 029 001 01
015530 2911N 08345W 8463 01444 9994 +166 //// 182042 043 027 002 01
015600 2912N 08345W 8461 01447 9993 +170 //// 183040 041 026 002 01
015630 2914N 08346W 8459 01450 9993 +169 //// 181040 040 027 002 01
015700 2916N 08347W 8459 01450 9995 +169 //// 178040 040 027 002 01
015730 2918N 08348W 8461 01450 9996 +169 //// 178040 041 028 001 01
015800 2920N 08349W 8457 01452 9995 +169 //// 176040 040 028 004 01
015830 2922N 08349W 8463 01446 9994 +171 //// 176039 040 027 001 01
015900 2923N 08350W 8463 01446 9994 +170 //// 176038 038 029 000 01
015930 2925N 08351W 8458 01451 9994 +170 //// 175037 038 028 001 01
020000 2927N 08351W 8462 01447 9994 +171 //// 173039 040 028 001 01
020030 2929N 08352W 8461 01449 9990 +174 +171 170039 039 027 003 00
$$
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[ROCK]

maybe just maybe I can redeem myself.. .the 18Z NOGAPS set the trend....lets see if it sticks...

[northjaxpro]

This has been happening for days now. MLC fires up north or northeast of the LLC and the LLC follows along eventually and starts to get under it. Then MLC fires up again out ahead of the LLC and the LLC follows it. Follow the convective bursts and convective banding and you will see where it's going. It's a very slow process, but today's sequence still points to a NE to East motion.

This is what Debby has done her entire lifespan. I totally agree with you. GFS has nailed Debby from the beginning and the system will crawl across the northern peninsula the next 2-3 days at least.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of this poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 260208
AF309 0504A DEBBY HDOB 23 20120626
020100 2931N 08353W 8461 01447 9992 +173 +172 170039 040 026 001 00
020130 2933N 08354W 8459 01450 9993 +175 +171 171039 040 026 003 00
020200 2935N 08355W 8461 01449 9993 +173 +171 169039 040 026 002 00
020230 2937N 08355W 8462 01449 9994 +171 //// 169039 040 026 000 01
020300 2938N 08356W 8461 01448 9993 +173 +172 167040 040 026 002 00
020330 2940N 08357W 8461 01449 9993 +174 +172 166039 039 028 001 00
020400 2942N 08358W 8462 01449 9995 +171 //// 165037 038 024 001 01
020430 2944N 08358W 8461 01450 9997 +169 //// 165036 037 021 002 01
020500 2946N 08359W 8462 01450 9999 +169 //// 164036 036 018 002 05
020530 2947N 08401W 8458 01455 0001 +170 //// 162033 034 /// /// 05
020600 2946N 08402W 8463 01450 9996 +170 //// 163030 030 018 001 05
020630 2945N 08404W 8459 01450 9996 +170 //// 161029 030 019 002 01
020700 2945N 08405W 8461 01448 9993 +171 //// 160029 029 020 001 01
020730 2944N 08406W 8461 01448 9993 +170 //// 158028 029 021 002 01
020800 2943N 08408W 8462 01445 9991 +170 //// 158028 029 021 002 01
020830 2942N 08409W 8462 01443 9988 +171 //// 161028 028 021 002 01
020900 2941N 08411W 8462 01443 9987 +172 //// 160028 029 021 003 01
020930 2940N 08412W 8461 01441 9982 +176 //// 162028 028 024 003 01
021000 2939N 08413W 8461 01442 9981 +176 //// 162028 029 026 003 01
021030 2938N 08415W 8459 01442 9982 +173 //// 160027 028 025 003 01
$$
;

[vaffie]

maybe just maybe I can redeem myself.. .the 18Z NOGAPS set the trend....lets see if it sticks...

Rock and Vaffie, you can't say we're not persistent!