ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[vaffie]

Well if the pressure went down to 991mb then this C-Man Tower south of Appalachicola is indicating that Debby has evidently moved westward because it had a decent rise in pressure in the last hour........

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SGOF1

Yes, Recon showing that it has been moving westward for past couple hours. Models have also made a major west/stalling shift over the course of the day. 18Z GFDL now taking it westward towards Louisiana. Many of the GFS ensembles taking it westward (and the GFS operational now more or less stalled east of Florida instead of sending it quickly eastbound), CMC and HWRF killing it over Florida instead of taking it to the Atlantic side, NOGAPS now Louisiana-bound, the BAMS and BAMM sending it towards Louisiana/Texas, etc. The story of Debbie is not over yet. Granted, last night and this morning it all seemed like a slam dunk that she would drift eastward over Florida, but as of 8 pm it's not that clear any more, and besides she's drifting westward/southwestward right now. The 0Z models in 3-5 hours may be different.

My amateur comments

[robbielyn]

Well if the pressure went down to 991mb then this C-Man Tower south of Appalachicola is indicating that Debby has evidently moved westward because it had a decent rise in pressure in the last hour........

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SGOF1

Yes it did an upside down u anticyclonic loop its s and west but it will come back east. What I mean is it went ne then nw the sw now coming back around only more south making a full loop.

Not a met.

[SouthFloridawx]

Decapitation in process?

[CrazyC83]

Last 2 never transmitted?

[CrazyC83]

Problems with AF309? Since it hasn't transmitted in the last 25 minutes

[weatherSnoop]

Strange looking pieces energy coming in on shore - Englewood/Venice coast
Very strong gusts - 60+ MPH (guessing) Sustained getting higher as well. (power just off - on again)
Banding shows up here -and is that a "Tail" forming N. of Yucatan?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-ir2.html

Think that is why reccon ventured down this way

[CrazyC83]

Dropsonde a while back: 993mb/21 kt so the central pressure is 991mb.

UZNT13 KNHC 260002
XXAA 76008 99291 70852 08195 99993 25427 06021 00564 ///// /////
92623 24046 12010 85360 ///// 17007 88999 77999
31313 09608 82344
61616 AF309 0504A DEBBY OB 03
62626 EYE SPL 2910N08518W 2346 MBL WND 07519 AEV 20802 DLM WND 11
011 992846 WL150 07023 084 REL 2910N08517W 234427 SPG 2910N08518W
234638 =
XXBB 76008 99291 70852 08195 00993 25427 11945 25250 22850 /////
33846 /////
21212 00993 06021 11981 07025 22946 09013 33926 11510 44907 14512
55890 15509 66877 16013 77858 14506 88846 18008
31313 09608 82344
61616 AF309 0504A DEBBY OB 03
62626 EYE SPL 2910N08518W 2346 MBL WND 07519 AEV 20802 DLM WND 11
011 992846 WL150 07023 084 REL 2910N08517W 234427 SPG 2910N08518W
234638 =
;

[weatherSnoop]

Showing obs icon for a place the plane hasn't reached (according to google earth)

[CrazyC83]

Dropsonde had 993 with 21 kt of wind, hence 991.

[cycloneye]

I hope all is fine.

[BigB0882]

Curious to see if this possible Westward movement has any merit. I wont believe it unless Euro and GFS show it. That would be something, wouldn't it? This storm already has thrown more curveballs than any other I can remember in my short time following tropical systems. Does it have more in store? May be a late night, I can't sleep if I am thinking about a model run, haha.

[ozonepete]

Well if the pressure went down to 991mb then this C-Man Tower south of Appalachicola is indicating that Debby has evidently moved westward because it had a decent rise in pressure in the last hour........

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SGOF1

Yes, Recon showing that it has been moving westward for past couple hours. Models have also made a major west/stalling shift over the course of the day. 18Z GFDL now taking it westward towards Louisiana. Many of the GFS ensembles taking it westward (and the GFS operational now more or less stalled east of Florida instead of sending it quickly eastbound), CMC and HWRF killing it over Florida instead of taking it to the Atlantic side, NOGAPS now Louisiana-bound, the BAMS and BAMM sending it towards Louisiana/Texas, etc. The story of Debbie is not over yet. Granted, last night and this morning it all seemed like a slam dunk that she would drift eastward over Florida, but as of 8 pm it's not that clear any more, and besides she's drifting westward/southwestward right now. The 0Z models in 3-5 hours may be different.

My amateur comments

The two best, GFS and ECMWF, still take it eastward over Florida. There is nothing in the forecast upper air data that indicates steering currents will push it to the west. Also don't see any pressure rises in the southeastern U.S. or drops in the western Gulf to indicate that a corridor is opening up for a westward move.

[Hurricane Andrew]

From VDM
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 42kts (~ 48.3mph)

[weatherSnoop]

Wonder if they went to look at this area



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[psyclone]

still respectable winds in the tampa bay area with gusts into the 40's. the howard frankland and the courtney campbell causway are east/west roadways and are therefore experiencing a crosswind with tidal overwash and wave action. i drove acoss the west side of the bay on the bayside bridge just before dark and there are some surprisingly big waves out there and i could tell the water was elevated.

[robbielyn]

Visible makes it look like its getting its act together, water vapor tells another story. That pesky ull along with the dry air is pushing that panhandle convection east.the center can't grab it. That ridge is really putting the sqeezeplay on debby. The hightops are purple now not blue.

[ozonepete]

BTW, if anything, experience watching these tells me that the coming GFS runs (and Euro) will speed up the move eastward a little rather than have it stalled for 3 days. Looks to me like it's latching on to the base of the eastern trough. Let's see what happens when the next runs come out around 11PM...

[GCRain]

Well if the pressure went down to 991mb then this C-Man Tower south of Appalachicola is indicating that Debby has evidently moved westward because it had a decent rise in pressure in the last hour........ http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SGOF1

Yes, Recon showing that it has been moving westward for past couple hours. Models have also made a major west/stalling shift over the course of the day. 18Z GFDL now taking it westward towards Louisiana. Many of the GFS ensembles taking it westward (and the GFS operational now more or less stalled east of Florida instead of sending it quickly eastbound), CMC and HWRF killing it over Florida instead of taking it to the Atlantic side, NOGAPS now Louisiana-bound, the BAMS and BAMM sending it towards Louisiana/Texas, etc. The story of Debbie is not over yet. Granted, last night and this morning it all seemed like a slam dunk that she would drift eastward over Florida, but as of 8 pm it's not that clear any more, and besides she's drifting westward/southwestward right now. The 0Z models in 3-5 hours may be different. My amateur comments

Well,FWIW I live on the MS Coast and my barometetric pressure is low at 29.65in. and is falling.Not rapidly,but steadily.Does that mean anything?

[SouthFloridawx]

You can definitely see the clouds to the north and east of the center pull away quickly.

http://youtu.be/_2abPCvKzQk

[northjaxpro]

Torrential rain currently at my location. I am really fearful of a potential historic flood all across metro Jax and North Florida when this is all said and done. NWS radar is indicating potential rainfall amounts approaching 20 inches near Crawfordville since early this morning and still raining hard there currently. That is just incredible.