ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 252358
AF309 0504A DEBBY HDOB 10 20120625
235100 2855N 08451W 8464 01401 //// +171 //// 191024 025 020 001 01
235130 2854N 08450W 8461 01405 //// +172 //// 189026 027 020 002 01
235200 2853N 08449W 8462 01405 //// +172 //// 191027 028 014 004 01
235230 2852N 08448W 8461 01409 //// +170 //// 192025 026 016 003 01
235300 2850N 08447W 8462 01407 //// +170 //// 195027 029 023 007 01
235330 2849N 08446W 8467 01404 //// +161 //// 205032 035 032 006 01
235400 2848N 08445W 8470 01402 //// +165 //// 206027 027 031 003 01
235430 2847N 08444W 8458 01415 //// +172 //// 211028 030 030 003 01
235500 2845N 08443W 8465 01410 //// +175 //// 212027 028 031 001 01
235530 2844N 08442W 8461 01416 //// +175 //// 209028 029 030 002 01
235600 2843N 08441W 8463 01414 //// +175 //// 210029 029 031 000 01
235630 2842N 08440W 8461 01420 9956 +176 //// 214031 033 030 001 01
235700 2840N 08439W 8462 01419 9956 +179 //// 216033 033 031 000 01
235730 2839N 08438W 8462 01419 9958 +176 //// 214033 034 031 000 01
235800 2838N 08437W 8462 01419 9959 +179 //// 213034 035 031 002 01
235830 2837N 08436W 8461 01424 9962 +176 //// 215037 038 030 002 01
235900 2835N 08435W 8462 01424 9965 +174 //// 215039 039 031 001 01
235930 2834N 08434W 8460 01425 9966 +174 //// 215037 038 031 000 01
000000 2833N 08433W 8461 01427 9968 +172 //// 217037 038 029 002 01
000030 2832N 08432W 8459 01430 9967 +179 //// 217039 040 029 001 01
$$
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[weatherSnoop]

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[MGC]

Today's 18Z GFDL brings Debby west to La!!.....MGC

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 260008
AF309 0504A DEBBY HDOB 11 20120626
000100 2830N 08431W 8461 01431 9967 +180 //// 217041 043 027 002 01
000130 2829N 08430W 8462 01429 9968 +180 //// 216043 043 028 001 01
000200 2828N 08428W 8462 01432 9968 +180 //// 219042 042 028 001 01
000230 2827N 08427W 8462 01433 9972 +179 //// 221041 042 028 001 01
000300 2825N 08426W 8462 01435 9976 +174 //// 220042 042 028 000 01
000330 2824N 08425W 8459 01437 9976 +178 //// 219042 042 028 003 01
000400 2823N 08424W 8461 01436 9976 +180 //// 221042 043 031 001 01
000430 2822N 08423W 8462 01437 9978 +179 //// 223043 044 028 003 01
000500 2820N 08422W 8466 01436 9984 +172 //// 220044 044 029 001 01
000530 2819N 08421W 8456 01445 9983 +170 //// 221041 042 028 001 01
000600 2818N 08420W 8463 01442 9986 +172 //// 221041 042 028 000 01
000630 2817N 08419W 8461 01441 9985 +174 //// 219042 043 027 002 01
000700 2816N 08418W 8461 01445 9986 +175 //// 218041 042 027 001 01
000730 2814N 08417W 8463 01442 9988 +175 //// 217042 043 027 001 01
000800 2813N 08416W 8462 01444 9989 +175 +172 218042 043 027 000 00
000830 2812N 08415W 8461 01447 9991 +174 +174 217042 042 027 001 00
000900 2811N 08414W 8463 01446 9991 +175 +174 218042 042 027 002 00
000930 2809N 08413W 8462 01447 9993 +174 +173 218041 041 027 001 00
001000 2808N 08412W 8463 01449 9993 +173 //// 217037 039 026 002 01
001030 2807N 08411W 8459 01453 9995 +174 //// 213040 041 025 001 01
$$
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[KatDaddy]

Debby is stuck and producing flooding tropical rains that may approach historic levels. Very tough forecast. Still a remote possibilty she could hang around long enough to head W.

[weatherSnoop]

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[jabman98]

So Debby is now forecast to cross Florida and then turn into a hurricane? Am I understanding that correctly?

Expected to cross Florida later in the week (maybe a little sooner) and then intensify to a TS, possibly, east of JAX, but where did you hear hurricane? NHC certainly hasn't said that.

I think I misread something that said it was going to be a hurricane.

[weatherSnoop]

To me, it looks like Debby was able to latch on to a little piece of that burst


http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/ind ... channel=lc

[TheBurn]

22:31z VIS / IR (Day / Night)

Where does this come from? Never seen this "product" of satellite imagery.

Navy/NRL TC Page

[ozonepete]

Assuming Debby makes it across Florida as a tropical system, there is plenty of warm Atlantic waters ahead....no telling how strong Debby will get unless the Debby is absorbed by a non tropical frontal low or such.....MGC

The above is the opinion of MGC and not an offical forecast.

Yeah, I've been thinking about that all along. I'm pretty convinced, based on the history of these storms that cross the big bend and the forecast models, which are often a little conservative, that Debby has a good shot at making it to the Atlantic and then strengthening considerably given that its track would be over the Gulf Stream and the expected upper air conditions at the end of the week. I know I said the NHC is not talking about it, understandably so, but it wouldn't be surprising if it made hurricane strength IF it survives the triip across northern Florida. This is also just my opinion.

[ozonepete]

So Debby is now forecast to cross Florida and then turn into a hurricane? Am I understanding that correctly?

Expected to cross Florida later in the week (maybe a little sooner) and then intensify to a TS, possibly, east of JAX, but where did you hear hurricane? NHC certainly hasn't said that.

I think I misread something that said it was going to be a hurricane.

Don't worry about it jabman. As you can see I just posted my own personal opinion that it wouldn't surprise me.

[weatherSnoop]

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[ozonepete]

BTW, MGC, if Debby did survive and make hurricane, that would kick ACE, right?

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track has pressure down to 991 mbs.

AL, 04, 2012062600, , BEST, 0, 291N, 852W, 40, 991,TS

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 260018
AF309 0504A DEBBY HDOB 12 20120626
001100 2806N 08410W 8459 01454 9995 +172 +170 213040 040 025 000 00
001130 2804N 08409W 8463 01450 9995 +176 +165 213040 040 025 000 00
001200 2803N 08408W 8459 01454 9997 +175 +167 213040 041 027 000 00
001230 2802N 08407W 8462 01452 0000 +171 //// 212039 040 029 002 01
001300 2801N 08406W 8460 01455 0000 +170 //// 216037 037 028 002 01
001330 2759N 08405W 8461 01454 //// +167 //// 219035 036 028 001 01
001400 2758N 08404W 8457 01462 //// +163 //// 218034 035 027 002 01
001430 2758N 08404W 8457 01462 0004 +170 //// 211036 036 026 002 01
001500 2756N 08402W 8458 01459 0002 +172 +170 212037 037 027 001 00
001530 2755N 08401W 8464 01455 0002 +175 +165 213037 037 027 001 00
001600 2753N 08400W 8461 01459 0004 +172 +164 213038 038 027 002 00
001630 2752N 08359W 8461 01459 0005 +174 +167 212038 038 027 001 00
001700 2751N 08358W 8462 01458 0004 +174 +170 212038 038 026 001 00
001730 2750N 08357W 8460 01461 0007 +170 //// 210038 039 027 002 01
001800 2748N 08356W 8463 01460 0010 +168 //// 206041 042 028 002 01
001830 2747N 08355W 8459 01463 0010 +169 //// 205041 042 032 005 01
001900 2746N 08354W 8465 01458 //// +154 //// 205037 039 033 005 01
001930 2745N 08353W 8462 01460 //// +152 //// 203040 041 030 005 01
002000 2744N 08352W 8463 01459 //// +154 //// 199042 043 029 004 01
002030 2743N 08351W 8461 01461 //// +156 //// 196041 041 030 005 01
$$
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[ozonepete]

Makes sense, right? That's serious convection going on very close to the center...

[cycloneye]

BTW, MGC, if Debby did survive and make hurricane, that would kick ACE, right?

Current ACE:

Code: Select all

04L (Debby)
 
Operational
 
1.8800

North Atlantic Total

6.84


[weatherSnoop]

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[ozonepete]

Thanks, Luis!

[cycloneye]

URNT12 KNHC 260011
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042012
A. 25/23:44:20Z
B. 29 deg 06 min N
085 deg 11 min W
C. 850 mb 1364 m
D. 42 kt
E. 292 deg 18 nm
F. 033 deg 59 kt
G. 288 deg 33 nm
H. 993 mb
I. 16 C / 1495 m
J. 20 C / 1494 m
K. 17 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 10 nm
P. AF309 0504A DEBBY OB 02
MAX FL WIND 59 KT W QUAD 23:33:20Z