ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Aric Dunn]

i posted the full text in the advisory thread.

[Aric Dunn]

upper ridge slowly creeping north. another 24 hours or and at least the upper environment will be a bit better. but by then the ssts will have likely dropped due to up welling.

[artist]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 456 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY IN FLORIDA... SOUTHERN MADISON COUNTY IN FLORIDA... * UNTIL 800 PM EDT * AT 448 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED FLASH FLOODING FROM INTENSE RAIN BANDS OVER THE WARNED AREA. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MADISON...GREENVILLE...AUCILLA...AND WAUKEENAH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RADAR ESTIMATES RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

[KBBOCA]

Insane rain totals on the FL Gulf coast.
Praying for all in Debby's path.

[I'm far from FL these days, but thinking of my many friends there!]

[artist]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 442 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN LEON COUNTY IN FLORIDA... * UNTIL 745 PM EDT * AT 436 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED FLASH FLOODING FROM INTENSE RAIN BANDS OVER THE WARNED AREA. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO TALLAHASSEE...WOODVILLE...AND SPRING HILL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... AREA RAIN GAUGES HAVE SHOWN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN LEON COUNTY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

[Aric Dunn]

close up rgb, put on radar overlay and you can see some convection redeveloping with the LLC dropping south.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/wfo/t ... h-rgb.html

[Dave]

Will need a few people to pick up the next recon mission starting around 645 pm tonight please. I've got a few things I need to do outside before the 100 degree heat hits us in 2 days and going to try to do them tonight. I should be available after 10 to 11 pm.

[Aric Dunn]

Also the buoy to the Se of the center by about 80 miles has not dropped to 79 degree sst. sure the general area is also right around there. near shore temps holding at around 80 to 81. just south of the center couple reports still show 80 to 82

near buy buoy sst's

[Hurricane Andrew]

I can do some HDOBS

[sponger]

Looks like the moisture is beginning to wrap around the center. IMHO

[brunota2003]

Reds on NASA GHCC IR images are now offshore, and continuing to build southwards.



This will really help out Debby's circulation...sadly. Also, areas in Florida under those storms have gotten 10 to 12 inches of rain today alone, with 4 to 6 inches more expected by midnight!

522 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR...
NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
SOUTHEASTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
WAKULLA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 1115 PM EDT

* AT 512 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED FLASH
FLOODING FROM INTENSE RAIN BANDS OVER THE WARNED AREA.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
CRAWFORDVILLE...SOPCHOPPY...AND SANBORN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS
WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

AREA RAIN GAUGES HAVE REPORTED 10 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA.

[ozonepete]

She still fighting some dry air.

Water Vapor Imagery Loop

You can't use the NOAA water vapor loops for mid-level dry air readings. They only show upper level dry air which has no bearing on a TC. Go to CIMSS for mid-level dry air charts.

[vaffie]

Whether it means anything at all is another subject, but several things jump out at me.

1) The GFS has backed off its fast moving track eastward to a stalling off the east coast of Florida, implying that the high is stronger than it previously forecast.
2) More of the GFS ensembles each round have been increasingly turning to the west.
3) 18Z CMC does not seem to go across Florida any more. See http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/ ... el%20plots
4) Some of the 12Z CMC ensembles were going west too.
4) Based on the last recon data, the storm's center has moved WNW for the past hour and a half.
5) If you look at the BAMS and BAMM, you will see that they both go westward, which indicates that the current winds at the low and mid levels are pushing it towards the west.

It may mean nothing but I smell a westward shift in the track forecasts, and if it gets far enough west, it could get sufficiently underneath the high pressure and keep on trucking along the coast.

This is my amateur opinion.

[mph101]

Here is what I have record through rain guage.
Pinellas Point, Saint Petersburg Florida
6/23/12 Sat - 1.56
6/24/12 Sun- 6.60 in ( gauge limit over flow) empty at 6.30 PM. Meso storm Passe Grille Florida about 8 PM near 2.50" 30 minutes
6/25/12 Mon 4.50" rainfall over Sunday night
6/25/12- trace so far 6 Pm

On Tampa bay at the mouth of the Gulf of Mexico nearly 12.75 in in past 72 hrs.

We needed this rain bad around the mouth of Tampa bay the drought is worse then shown on drought indicators.

[artist]

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
618 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA...

SOPCHOPPY RIVER NEAR SOPCHOPPY AFFECTING WAKULLA COUNTY

.INTENSE RAINFALL FROM TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WILL RESULT IN RAPID
RISES ON THE SOPCHOPPY RIVER AND ASSOCIATED CREEKS AND STREAMS IN WAKULLA
COUNTY. THESE RISES WILL PUSH THE SOPCHOPPY RIVER NEAR U.S. HIGHWAY
319 OUT OF ITS BANKS AND CAUSE MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING AS HEAVY
RAINFALL CONTINUES OVER WAKULLA COUNTY OVERNIGHT.

[ozonepete]

Whether it means anything at all is another subject, but several things jump out at me.

1) The GFS has backed off its fast moving track eastward to a stalling off the east coast of Florida, implying that the high is stronger than it previously forecast.
2) More of the GFS ensembles each round have been increasingly turning to the west.
3) 18Z CMC does not seem to go across Florida any more. See http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/ ... el%20plots
4) Some of the 12Z CMC ensembles were going west too.
4) Based on the last recon data, the storm's center has moved WNW for the past hour and a half.
5) If you look at the BAMS and BAMM, you will see that they both go westward, which indicates that the current winds at the low and mid levels are pushing it towards the west.

It may mean nothing but I smell a westward shift in the track forecasts, and if it gets far enough west, it could get sufficiently underneath the high pressure and keep on trucking along the coast.

This is my amateur opinion.

Since the GFS has handled this so well so far, and the ECMWF now is in agreement with it, I wouldn't think about a westward shift until the GFS and or ECMWF shows one. Don't forget that the CMC is one of the least capable models for TC track and development.

[drezee]

URNT15 KNHC 252238
AF309 0504A DEBBY HDOB 02 20120625
223100 3025N 08855W 0027 ///// 0016 +360 +195 360000 000 /// /// 23
223130 3025N 08855W 0022 ///// 0015 +360 +196 360000 000 /// /// 23
223200 3025N 08855W 0025 ///// 0016 +358 +197 360000 000 /// /// 23
223230 3025N 08855W 0027 ///// 0017 +356 +197 360000 000 /// /// 23
223300 3025N 08855W 0027 ///// 0017 +358 +198 360000 000 /// /// 23
223330 3025N 08855W 0026 ///// 0015 +371 +198 360000 000 /// /// 23
223400 3025N 08855W 0025 ///// 0015 +377 +197 360000 000 /// /// 23
223430 3025N 08855W 0027 ///// 0017 +369 +197 360000 000 /// /// 23
223500 3025N 08855W 0028 ///// 0017 +360 +198 360000 000 /// /// 23
223530 3025N 08855W 0028 ///// 0017 +358 +199 360000 000 /// /// 23
223600 3024N 08856W 0027 ///// 0016 +355 +200 360000 000 /// /// 23
223630 3024N 08856W 0027 ///// 0016 +351 +202 360000 000 /// /// 23
223700 3024N 08856W 0026 ///// 0014 +351 +204 360000 000 /// /// 23
223730 3024N 08856W 0024 ///// 0012 +350 +204 360000 000 /// /// 23
223800 3024N 08856W 0024 ///// 0013 +348 +203 360000 000 /// /// 23
223830 3024N 08856W 0026 ///// 0013 +349 +201 360000 000 /// /// 23
223900 3024N 08856W 0023 ///// 0012 +354 +201 360000 000 /// /// 23
223930 3024N 08856W 0024 ///// 0013 +349 +198 360000 000 /// /// 23
224000 3024N 08856W 0024 ///// 0013 +337 +196 360000 000 /// /// 23
224030 3024N 08856W 0024 ///// 0013 +337 +197 360000 000 /// /// 23
$$

[cycloneye]

Plane is taxing at runway ready to takeoff.

[Hurricaneman]

I personally think this is currently making landfall near Appalachicola looking at current satelite and radar


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Hurricane Andrew]

drezee, can you take it?