ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 250235
AF302 0304A DEBBY HDOB 27 20120625
022830 2911N 08409W 8424 01511 0024 +167 +161 170048 049 014 003 00
022900 2913N 08409W 8431 01505 0027 +165 +163 165047 047 015 003 00
022930 2915N 08408W 8428 01510 0029 +165 +164 163045 047 017 002 00
023000 2917N 08408W 8428 01510 0030 +160 +160 161044 045 017 002 01
023030 2919N 08408W 8433 01508 0030 +160 +160 160042 042 009 004 01
023100 2921N 08408W 8430 01510 0032 +160 +160 160043 043 013 003 01
023130 2923N 08408W 8426 01516 0033 +165 +163 159042 042 012 003 00
023200 2925N 08408W 8432 01510 0032 +169 +159 160041 041 012 004 00
023230 2927N 08407W 8431 01513 0036 +166 +159 161040 041 016 003 00
023300 2929N 08407W 8426 01519 0039 +160 +160 160037 038 016 003 01
023330 2930N 08407W 8434 01509 0038 +160 +160 157036 037 026 004 01
023400 2932N 08407W 8425 01518 //// +157 //// 146033 036 027 004 01
023430 2934N 08407W 8429 01516 //// +148 //// 149039 043 026 006 01
023500 2936N 08407W 8421 01522 //// +147 //// 151040 042 026 006 01
023530 2938N 08407W 8427 01523 //// +153 //// 146039 042 025 006 05
023600 2938N 08409W 8420 01528 0042 +160 +160 140037 040 /// /// 05
023630 2937N 08410W 8441 01503 //// +150 //// 149036 038 031 006 01
023700 2936N 08411W 8427 01516 //// +145 //// 143037 040 033 007 01
023730 2935N 08412W 8435 01507 //// +153 //// 159038 039 032 007 01
023800 2934N 08414W 8425 01517 //// +152 //// 152037 039 030 006 01
$$
;

['CaneFreak]

Source? I don't see those obs posted anywhere. Thanks.

Recon Just Passed Through Long Area Of 60+ KTS Flight Winds

[Ntxw]

Looks like by that map it has decreased as indicated by the blue dashed lines directly over the storm

That area is shrinking. A still image does not fully show it. Her convection is holding it off but it is being thinned out by growing shear to her west/sw and ne.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=sht&zoom=&time=

[Dave]

[brunota2003]

Source? I don't see those obs posted anywhere. Thanks.

Recon Just Passed Through Long Area Of 60+ KTS Flight Winds

It wasn't a super long area, about a quarter of an HDOB, and the winds were 60 to 61 knots during the time. Page 13 at the bottom.

[cycloneye]

WTNT34 KNHC 250247
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...INTENSE SQUALLS MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 85.9W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO ENGLEWOOD FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST. DEBBY HAS
BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. LITTLE
MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THIS
FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO WEAK STEERING CURRENTS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...
325 KM...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST
HOUR...A SUSTAINED WIND OF 43 MPH...69 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO
67 MPH...107 KM/H...WAS REPORTED AT VENICE FLORIDA.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST THROUGH MONDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND AT
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...

APALACHEE BAY TO WACCASASSA BAY...4 TO 6 FT
FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF WACCASASSA BAY...2 TO 4 FT
COASTAL ALABAMA EASTWARD TO APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
10 TO 15 INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. SURROUNDING
THIS AREA...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND
WET SOIL CONDITIONS...THESE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL EXACERBATE THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN
ALABAMA.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL
ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA AND SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...INTENSE SQUALLS MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 85.9W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

['CaneFreak]

yeah...saw a couple but not a long area

Source? I don't see those obs posted anywhere. Thanks.

Recon Just Passed Through Long Area Of 60+ KTS Flight Winds

It wasn't a super long area, about a quarter of an HDOB, and the winds were 60 to 61 knots during the time. Page 13 at the bottom.

[cycloneye]

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 250245
AF302 0304A DEBBY HDOB 28 20120625
023830 2933N 08415W 8436 01505 //// +151 //// 151037 039 029 007 01
023900 2932N 08416W 8421 01519 //// +143 //// 149037 039 026 007 01
023930 2931N 08417W 8430 01511 //// +157 //// 156034 038 020 006 01
024000 2930N 08419W 8428 01512 //// +160 //// 158036 037 011 005 01
024030 2929N 08420W 8433 01504 //// +160 //// 157038 039 013 002 01
024100 2928N 08421W 8425 01511 //// +160 //// 154038 039 011 002 01
024130 2927N 08422W 8430 01506 //// +160 //// 153037 038 007 003 01
024200 2926N 08424W 8431 01503 //// +162 //// 155036 037 012 002 01
024230 2925N 08425W 8424 01507 //// +159 //// 149036 037 009 003 01
024300 2923N 08426W 8434 01496 //// +152 //// 144039 043 015 005 01
024330 2922N 08427W 8429 01498 //// +163 //// 154039 043 016 005 01
024400 2921N 08429W 8427 01504 //// +159 //// 149040 041 016 005 01
024430 2920N 08430W 8433 01495 0020 +160 +160 157041 041 025 003 01
024500 2919N 08431W 8432 01495 0018 +160 +160 160039 041 025 003 01
024530 2918N 08432W 8429 01497 0016 +160 +160 159039 039 014 003 01
024600 2917N 08433W 8431 01491 0013 +160 +160 159038 039 007 003 01
024630 2916N 08435W 8429 01495 0012 +160 +160 159039 040 011 004 01
024700 2915N 08436W 8432 01488 0008 +170 +170 158038 039 012 005 01
024730 2914N 08437W 8427 01491 0007 +170 +170 155036 038 010 004 01
024800 2913N 08438W 8426 01491 0007 +160 +160 150036 036 017 003 01
$$
;

[artist]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1039 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL BREVARD COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
NORTHEASTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 1130 PM EDT.

* AT 1036 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR DEER
PARK...OR ABOUT 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAMP HOLLY FISH CAMP...MOVING
NORTH AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR DEER PARK AND US 192 IN FAR EASTERN
OSCEOLA COUNTY.

[brunota2003]

Thats the intermediate advisory cone, cycloneye!

EDIT: fixed

[crimi481]

Just read this from NHC Update.
Been on screened patio all night - and felt this gust. (2 miles south of Venice line)
Pretty wild night

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...
325 KM...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST
HOUR...A SUSTAINED WIND OF 43 MPH...69 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO
67 MPH...107 KM/H...WAS REPORTED AT VENICE FLORIDA.

[cycloneye]

Thats the intermediate advisory cone, cycloneye!

Now it is the right one.

[Kingarabian]

Disco is not out yet.

[Dave]

['CaneFreak]

That's because it is forecaster Stewart. He writes the most beautiful, detailed discussions of any forecaster in my opinion. It's so good it makes your eyes tear up.

Disco is not out yet.

[brunota2003]

Stewart did the public advisory, can't wait to read his discussion!

[cycloneye]

WTNT44 KNHC 250258
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012

THE APPEARANCE OF DEBBY IN SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY HAS DEGRADED
SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING AS A SHARP MID-LEVEL DRY INTRUSION HAS
WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE AND ERODED ALL OF THE
INNER CORE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT
50 KT FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE BASED MAINLY ON CONTINUITY WITH THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE RELATIVELY LOW CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 991 MB
REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT THIS EVENING.

DEBBY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. BOTH 18Z
AND 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE MID-LEVEL RIDGING HAS CONTINUED TO
BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TO THE NORTH OF DEBBY...AND THIS
HAS LIKELY BEEN THE REASON FOR THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOTION
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE...EXCEPT
FOR THE GFS AND GFS-ENSEMBLE MODELS...INDICATE THIS BLOCKING PATTERN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. SHOULD CONTINUE AS FAST-MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASS WELL TO THE NORTH OF DEBBY. THE RESULT
SHOULD BE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...AND THEN ONLY DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD AFTER THAT AS THE
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN. ALTHOUGH THE
GFS MODEL HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH A FAST NORTHEASTWARD MOTION
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE LARGE SPRAWLING NATURE
OF THE CYCLONE AND THE BLOCKING RIDGE TO THE NORTH WOULD SUGGEST
THAT THE GFS MODEL MAY BE LIFTING OUT DEBBY TOO QUICKLY. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...MAINLY DUE TO THE MORE WESTWARD INITIAL
POSITION.

DEBBY HAS FINALLY CONSOLIDATED ALL OF THE MULTIPLE SMALL SWIRLS INTO
A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
FORECASTING THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP DRY SLOT TO GRADUALLY MOISTEN
UP OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
CURRENTLY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ADVECTS WESTWARD INTO THE
INNER CORE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BEFORE DEBBY BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND
OR COLD UPWELLING BENEATH THE CYCLONE OCCURS. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM STATISTICAL MODELS AND THE
HWRF/GFDL REGIONAL MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 28.3N 85.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 28.6N 85.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 28.7N 85.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 28.8N 85.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 28.9N 85.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 29.4N 85.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 29.9N 85.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR COAST
120H 30/0000Z 30.4N 85.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[jdray]

5 days? Are you effin kidding me?

We are already saturated, have not had a chance to dry out since Beryl, and now they think 4-5 days of her sticking around the NE gulf and drenching us?

We are under flood watch in NE Florida until at least tuesday night, probably be extended more with this update. Flash flooding should be a fun adventure lol... yeah.

Come on, lets share some rain with Texas next time.