ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[tolakram]

I doubt they react at all the the 18z, but maybe if the 0z shows the same.

[Air Force Met]

One thing is for sure...Debby is spitting out a mid level vort center. It's up near 27/28 and 85 and on it's way to Florida. We should see a new re-fire of convection near the center.

[jlauderdal]

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
908 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.

..REMARKS..

0335 PM TORNADO 3 ESE NAPLES 26.12N 81.75W
06/23/2012 COLLIER FL NWS STORM SURVEY

SURVEY OF DAMAGE IN EAST NAPLES REVEALED MAINLY BROKEN
TREE BRANCHES, UPROOTED SMALL TREES AND A PALM TREE SPLIT
IN HALF. A POOL LANAI WAS HEAVILY DAMAGED, BUT ONLY MINOR
ROOF DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES WAS NOTED. WELL-DEFINED DAMAGE
PATH SUGGESTS LOW-END F0 TORNADO WITH WINDS LIKELY NO
MORE THAN 70 MPH. DISCONTINUOUS PATH LENGTH APPROXIMATELY
1.7 MILES WITH WIDTH LIKELY NO MORE THAN 10-20 YARDS.

0400 PM TORNADO 2 E VANDERBILT BEACH 26.27N 81.79W
06/23/2012 COLLIER FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

*** 1 INJ *** PROBABLE BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN AT NORTH
COLLIER HOSPITAL ON CORNER OF IMMOKALEE AND
GOODLETTE-FRANK ROADS IN NORTH NAPLES AREA. DAMAGE
REPORTED TO TREES AND LIGHT POLES, BUT NO STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE. A PERSON WAS STRUCK BY A DOWNED TREE LIMB AND WAS
TREATED ON-SITE. TORNADO LIKELY SPAWNED BY SAME STORM
THAT PRODUCED EARLIER TORNADO IN EAST NAPLES.

[ROCK]

JMO, I think they will shift the cone some right with the HWRF and GFDL shifts but not by much...

[Hurricaneman]

One thing is for sure...Debby is spitting out a mid level vort center. It's up near 27/28 and 85 and on it's way to Florida. We should see a new re-fire of convection near the center.

This is exactly what the GFS has been showing for the last several runs, maybe the GFS scores on this one, you can see the mid level heading for the Big bend of Florida and a Surfavce low about 150 miles SW at the edge of the convection

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Dean4Storms]

One thing is for sure...Debby is spitting out a mid level vort center. It's up near 27/28 and 85 and on it's way to Florida. We should see a new re-fire of convection near the center.

Showing up on Long Range Tampa radar.

[Hurricane Andrew]

One thing is for sure...Debby is spitting out a mid level vort center. It's up near 27/28 and 85 and on it's way to Florida. We should see a new re-fire of convection near the center.

Which center, the MLC, or LLC?

[ROCK]

18z NOGAPS...spits out something from Debby then send the remaing into the lower TX coast around CC....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[summersquall]

Can anyone tell me or have a link for what the sea heights are? Leaving for a cruise tomorrow will be heading to Key West and then Cayman. Thanks

This may help: http://www.intellicast.com/Travel/Weath ... Waves.aspx

[SFLcane]

One thing is for sure...Debby is spitting out a mid level vort center. It's up near 27/28 and 85 and on it's way to Florida. We should see a new re-fire of convection near the center.

Which center lol.. This still looks heavily sheared to me with all its strong tc winds well removed from its mulitple centers.

[cycloneye]

Updated 00z Best Track/Pressure down to 999 mbs

AL, 04, 2012062400, , BEST, 0, 261N, 875W, 45, 999, TS

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[Air Force Met]

One thing is for sure...Debby is spitting out a mid level vort center. It's up near 27/28 and 85 and on it's way to Florida. We should see a new re-fire of convection near the center.

Which center, the MLC, or LLC?

mid level vort center.

The whole circulation....in other words...the MLC is going going gone...

[bamajammer4eva]

In the 5pm Discussion, the NHC said that one reason it chose to side with the Euro was because more than half of the GFS ensembles went that route as well.

Well, a majority of the 18z GFS ensembles are tightly clustered in Central Florida now. Lets see how the NHC reacts at 11:

http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/i ... smodel.gif

Wow only one shows a TX landfall now-everything else is East of NHC track

[Terry]

With all the talk about the GFS track (eastward) vs. NHC track (westward), I'm wondering if anyone recalls a time when the NHC flip-flopped it's forecast track by 180 degrees? Seems to me that in the last several years, the NHC track has generally always come to fruition within a few miles, but never have I seen a 180 degree shift. Well, maybe Betsy in '65 and Elena in '85, but those were both eons ago, technologically speaking.

This from the NHC:

...EVEN THOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SHOWS AN EASTWARD TRACK...MORE THAN HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE WESTWARD-MOVING MODELS...MAKING THE WESTWARD SCENARIO SEEM MORE LIKELY...

Having gone through Elena on a low lying barrier island at the south end of Tampa Bay these things always get my attention. We've already lost two feet of beach & who knows how many turtle nests.....

[Hurricane Andrew]

One thing is for sure...Debby is spitting out a mid level vort center. It's up near 27/28 and 85 and on it's way to Florida. We should see a new re-fire of convection near the center.

Which center, the MLC, or LLC?

mid level vort center.

So, does the cnte of Debby stay with the LLCs?

[stormhunter7]

Ship has 29.85 pressure... south winds at 44mph at 00z. East of center

[HouTXmetro]

I think it's clear that some mid level stuff wil get split off. And Debby will maintain some sort of low level LLC that will shoot to the west. summation a weak system. But I highly doubt the storm itself moves east into florida.

(Disclaimer: in my unprofessional opinion)

[tolakram]

B&W Live IR loop ... http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

[TexasF6]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at4 See Ship ZCDJ2... closet to Debby COC

Stormhunter, was that ship reporting a 13ft seas/wave height? Or was I seeing things? Thanks for the post.

[ronjon]

Well it certainly isn't very organized nor do I see it doing anything much
in the short term.