ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[WeatherGuesser]

Just for the record, everone on here should know that JB is not a tropical meterologist or a hurricane specialist.

And I really don't know why people keep referring to him.

[bamajammer4eva]

This is what Joe B posted on Twitter. He agrees with the NHC path and hope he is wrong with the intensity being a CAT2/3 at landfall between Corpus Christi and Matagorda Bay. The Upper TX Coast would get significant effects should that materialize.

Just for the record, everone on here should know that JB is not a tropical meterologist or a hurricane specialist.

I did not know that but if that be the case then there is a lot of false claims he is. Accuweather is a big company (like them or not) and charged people for JBs tropical analysis. If I had paid for a subscription to his info, then I would want my money back. Fox News used his tropical commentary also.

[KWT]

Also another possible system to compare it to would be Edouard from 2008, especially if the system does get shunted westwards and follows my own personal idea of it gaining more latitude but still heading west as per the NHC track.

[wkwally]

makes cool looking maps, LOL

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Debby continues to organize. Visible satellite loops show that the circulation continues to become better defined and convection is trying to begin moving towards the west quadrant...a sign wind shear is beginning to lessen some.

[WeatherGuesser]

Not that I wish a hurricane on anyone but I am hoping for it to stay north of Brownsville

I'd REALLY love for it to come up the Mississippi into the Ohio valley. We're over 10" below normal this year.

[Kingarabian]

I used to see him on CNN giving out forecasts etc. From what I hear is that he's a body builder and also that he's very critical of Govt. based forecasts.

[KatDaddy]

I am also hoping this stays sheared and rather weak and the ridge is strong and sends Debby WSW to South Texas which gives them well needed rains without anything serious.

[caneman]

Just for the record, everone on here should know that JB is not a tropical meterologist or a hurricane specialist.

And I really don't know why people keep referring to him.

For what it is worth - he had it hitting Florida yesterday so I wouldn't put any odds on him being right.

[KatDaddy]

And Joe B is not with Accu-Weather. He moved on to WeatherBell Analysts.

[mutley]

Wow - ULL aiding in supplying large influx of Tropical moisture bands from Yuctan/ Mexico
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... thod=flash

Could get interesting

I didn't know that was doing it, but Debby is affecting an enormous area.

[wkwally]

I am also hoping this stays sheared and rather weak and the ridge is strong and sends Debby WSW to South Texas which gives them well needed rains without anything serious.

bite your bottom lip although we need the rain down here we do not need flooding

[Fyzn94]

I am also hoping this stays sheared and rather weak and the ridge is strong and sends Debby WSW to South Texas which gives them well needed rains without anything serious.

Hopefully this time it won't pull a Don.

[caneman]

I'm starting to think if Debby stays sheared and moderate TS then she heads off to the NE like GFS. You have to give kudos to GFS for sticking with this solution now for what 10 runs in row? This storm will definitely be an EPIC fail for one of two big models.

Agree ronjon. When you look at what the storm is doing you would have to say GFS is doing well. When you look at the Satellite you can't argue that it keeps on chugging North. There may be a little swirl heading NW but the mass is going elsewhere.

[KatDaddy]

Yes Don was a complete fail for well needed STX rains.

[KWT]

I am also hoping this stays sheared and rather weak and the ridge is strong and sends Debby WSW to South Texas which gives them well needed rains without anything serious.

It'd be nice, I suspect though that if it does go west it'll pick up some latitude before it heads inland, whether it drops any latitude will be key but given the convection is sheared off to the east/north that isn't really a good sign unless it goes way south.

[wkwally]

I am also hoping this stays sheared and rather weak and the ridge is strong and sends Debby WSW to South Texas which gives them well needed rains without anything serious.

Hopefully this time it won't pull a Don.

LOL I remember Don went to sleep to prepare for some real action and "poof" it was gone.

[Jevo]

One of Debby's feeder bands about to move through... yeah Im the little red plus sign in the way

[cycloneye]

WTNT34 KNHC 232356
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
700 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012

...DEBBY NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
...OUTER RAINBANDS LASHING PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTH
FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 87.5W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD
TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.5 WEST. DEBBY HAS
BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND LITTLE
MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST
TO BEGIN BY SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN BY
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF DEBBY WILL BE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING WELL EAST OF THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM..
MAINLY NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
DATA IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/LANDSEA

[AHS2011]

Pressure: 1000 MB
Maximum Wind Gusts: 50 MPH
Movement: Stationary

As of 8 P.M. advisory.