ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Ntxw]

Would hardly call any model a success right now. A sheared mess with all the action to the North and East and a Naked LLC heading towards Texas thus far. To my knowledge known of the models predicted this. Last I checked the Euro wants to bomb this going towards Texas, which isn't looking likely at this point.

Just my amateur opinion.

GFS has been barking the quicker organization route for days and days hence connecting with the trough. Majority of the other globals have shown a very slow process with debby and not really strengthening (per the models) until it's westward track from the northern gulf.

[wxman57]

NHC's track looks like a good first one to me, particularly since it's right along my track of the last 3-4 days. Only comment I'd make would be on the extremely slow movement Mon-Wed and keeping it still offshore at the 120hr point. I have it inland in 96 hrs. I didn't think they'd commit to a landfall point with so much uncertainty, though. With the ridge building to its north, mid to upper level flow across the NW Gulf should be out of the NE-ENE, meaning Debby should track south of west Mon-Wed.

[ROCK]

Would hardly call any model a success right now. A sheared mess with all the action to the North and East and a Naked LLC heading towards Texas thus far. To my knowledge known of the models predicted this. Last I checked the Euro wants to bomb this going towards Texas, which isn't looking likely at this point.

Just my amateur opinion.

Bomb? I don't think a 991MB is bombing out....

[Dean4Storms]

Winds came up the last hour here in Destin gusting to 20-25mph right along the coast out of the SE.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Hurricane Andrew THREAT Outlook (HATO)
---
Note: here is a definition of the categories.

RED means that a strong TS or hurricane could impact the area shortly, with winds, heavy rain, and other threats.


YELLOW means that a strong TS or hurricane could impact the area within 36 hours, and/or that a TS could effect the area in the shorter term with heavy rain, winds, and a tornado threat.


BLUE means that a weakish TS may effect the area within 36 hours, or that a TD/Weak TS is causing heavy rain, but lighter winds, and a tornado threat in the area.


7pm HATO

Western Florida coast, and the panhandle. Mainly western part the Florida (non-panhandle).
Next Outlook: 9pm

Comments/Suggustions are appreciated.

[EmeraldCoast93]

Just got a strong gust here north of Fort Walton Beach, FL - probably around 25 mph

[fwbbreeze]

Your right Dean! Gusting to 30 here in fwb right along the coast!

[cycloneye]

Historic data about the formation of the fourth named storm early in the season by Dr Jeff Masters:

Debby's place in history (by Jeff Masters)
Remarkably, Debby's formation on June 23 comes a full two months ahead of the usual formation date of the season's fourth storm in the Atlantic, August 23. Debby's formation beats by twelve days the previous record for formation of the fourth named storm of the year in the Atlantic, set in 2005, when Hurricane Dennis was named on July 5. An early start to the Atlantic hurricane season has been increasingly common in recent years. In 2008, I blogged about the research of Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin, who published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters, titled "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that yes, there is a "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high". Three out of four of this year's early quartet of storms--Alberto, Beryl, and Debby--formed in ocean areas that were more than 1°F above average, which is an unusually high amount of warmth. We should expect to see more early-season Atlantic tropical storms as a consequence of global warming, since cool ocean temperatures are a key impediment to formation of such storms. However, this assumes that factors such as wind shear and atmospheric stability won't grow more hostile for tropical cyclone formation during the early part of hurricane season, and this is uncertain. If we do end up seeing a substantial increase in early-season tropical storms as a consequence of global warming, this is not necessarily a bad thing. Early-season tropical storms are often more boon than bane, bringing much-needed drought-busting rains, like Tropical Storm Beryl did for North Florida last month. There is typically a lot of wind shear around in May, June, and July, making it difficult for early season storms to reach major hurricane status. According to Wunderground's list of major early-season hurricanes, since record keeping began in 1851, there has been only one major hurricane in May, two in June, and nine in July. Three of these occurred in the past ten years, so there has not as yet been a large increase in early-season major hurricanes due to global warming.

[jlauderdal]

0415 PM TORNADO NAPLES 26.14N 81.80W
06/23/2012 COLLIER FL EMERGENCY MNGR

*** 1 INJ *** A POSSIBLE TORNADO PASSED OVER NORTH
COLLIER HOSPITAL IN NAPLES. DAMAGES CONSISTED OF DOWNED
TREE LIMBS AND BROKEN STREET LIGHTS ON A PARKING GARAGE.
ONE PERSON WAS STRUCK BY ONE OF THE DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND
WAS TREATED.

I think if this moves a little closer to Florida, I wouldn't be suprised if there is a tornado watch for the western counties of Florida

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

there is a very healthy band coming through sofla now

[KWT]

NHC's track looks like a good first one to me, particularly since it's right along my track of the last 3-4 days. Only comment I'd make would be on the extremely slow movement Mon-Wed and keeping it still offshore at the 120hr point. I have it inland in 96 hrs. I didn't think they'd commit to a landfall point with so much uncertainty, though. With the ridge building to its north, mid to upper level flow across the NW Gulf should be out of the NE-ENE, meaning Debby should track south of west Mon-Wed.

The problems begin though if as AFM the center 'reforms' enough to shunt the whole lot to the NE of where the models solution currently is, which might be enough for it to latch onto the exiting upper trough. I think what he says relaly is plauseable but as ever its a wait and see game!

[ronjon]

HWRF model sees to be out to lunch (as usual) - it's got the storm moving NW the last 6 hrs and continues on that course over the next day.

[Rob H]

Here in North Pinellas County the local NWS Say's we are suppose to get flooding rains.
all we have so far is a light mist. Maybe there is something to the Tampa shield legend.

[Dean4Storms]

To this point in the track the GFS has been dead on. I'm not saying it will follow the GFS track over FL, but it has been right to this point since yesterday's 0z run.

ECMWF yesterday at 0z......

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-op ... =Animation

GFS yesterday at 0z......

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[SunnyThoughts]

I think the fact they put the warnings out for the LA coast is a good thing. It's not hard to move the watch/warning area either to the EAST or to the WEST from there as the case may warrant in the next couple of days.

[TheShrimper]

0415 PM TORNADO NAPLES 26.14N 81.80W
06/23/2012 COLLIER FL EMERGENCY MNGR

*** 1 INJ *** A POSSIBLE TORNADO PASSED OVER NORTH
COLLIER HOSPITAL IN NAPLES. DAMAGES CONSISTED OF DOWNED
TREE LIMBS AND BROKEN STREET LIGHTS ON A PARKING GARAGE.
ONE PERSON WAS STRUCK BY ONE OF THE DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND
WAS TREATED.

I think if this moves a little closer to Florida, I wouldn't be suprised if there is a tornado watch for the western counties of Florida

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

there is a very healthy band coming through sofla now

.....And another one right on it's heels.

[HouTXmetro]

It appears the center is becoming more defined and the overall convection shield seems to be expanding west. Could it be a sign that shear is starting to relax?

[caneman]

No, I believe they will acknowledge euro is perhaps overrated and a west bias model, like ukmet.

That's kinda like saying the Miami Heat are overrated. It's hard to be overrated when you are #1.

By only a 30 mile average in comparison to GFS. And as Bryan Norcross stated it can be very accurate or have Epic Fails. We'll see how this one plays out. As I'm sure you know, when in doubt go with the blend.

[ozonepete]

Of notable interest now, beside the fact that multiple LLCs are still rotating around an elongated center, it appears to me that the main LLC tagged by the NHC has not moved north at all in the last few hours. Appears stationary. Of course I know it's hard to analyze by looking at the loops til you're almost blind.

[caneman]

Would hardly call any model a success right now. A sheared mess with all the action to the North and East and a Naked LLC heading towards Texas thus far. To my knowledge known of the models predicted this. Last I checked the Euro wants to bomb this going towards Texas, which isn't looking likely at this point.

Just my amateur opinion.

GFS has been barking the quicker organization route for days and days hence connecting with the trough. Majority of the other globals hashown a very slow process with debby and not really strengthening (per the models) until it's westward track from the northern gulf.

Last Euro showed it bombing. I don't see that happening IMHO

[Dean4Storms]

Of notable interest now, beside the fact that multiple LLCs are still rotating around an elongated center, it appears to me that the main LLC tagged by the NHC has not moved north at all in the last few hours. Appears stationary. Of course I know it's hard to analyze by looking at the loops til you're almost blind.

Looks like it moved maybe a tad to the NNE from what I can tell, but not much.