ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[ozonepete]

The center does not look like its going to relocate....850mb vorticity from 21z looks really healthy.

The center of 850mb vorticity on that chart looks closer to the area northeast of the current center.

[stormhunter7]

its amazing to see a new center coming flying into the coc from the NE and the 1st one heads sw and the wraps around and dissolves

[MGC]

Just back from the beach inspecting a new sea turtle nest not far from the house.....not surprised with the upgrade or the track. Only question is how far north Debbie goes before she turns west. The ULL should produce enough shear to keep the storm from rapidly spinning up for now. Personally, I love these slow moving gulf systems...keeps me on my toes. It is a beautiful day here on the Mississippi Coast but I am expecting the weather to go down hill as Debbie gets a bit closer.....MGC

The above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

[Dave]

Going to pry myself out of this chair and take off for awhile.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Slightly off topic, but the talk of a second center, multiple vortices, and the two track camps got me to wondering. Is it even remotely possible for a storm to split into two and head into different directions? Just a wild thought that came to my head and I figured it would be an easy answer here.

[Kingarabian]

Slightly off topic, but the talk of a second center, multiple vortices, and the two track camps got me to wondering. Is it even remotely possible for a storm to split into two and head into different directions? Just a wild thought that came to my head and I figured it would be an easy answer here.

The NOGAPS was suggesting that.

[Dean4Storms]

Canadian even further eastward at 18Z? Showing a MS/AL border landfall.....

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al962012.png

[Hurricaneman]

Slightly off topic, but the talk of a second center, multiple vortices, and the two track camps got me to wondering. Is it even remotely possible for a storm to split into two and head into different directions? Just a wild thought that came to my head and I figured it would be an easy answer here.

The NOGAPS was suggesting that.

And so is the GFS

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 232246
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 43 20120623
223900 2707N 08826W 6971 03135 //// +097 //// 039026 027 015 004 01
223930 2709N 08828W 6965 03141 //// +098 //// 037027 028 016 002 01
224000 2711N 08829W 6967 03142 //// +095 //// 036028 029 016 003 01
224030 2713N 08830W 6967 03140 //// +095 //// 040029 030 016 003 01
224100 2715N 08832W 6967 03141 //// +098 //// 042030 030 017 002 01
224130 2717N 08833W 6967 03140 //// +096 //// 043032 032 020 005 01
224200 2719N 08834W 6966 03143 //// +095 //// 047032 033 019 002 01
224230 2721N 08836W 6968 03142 //// +093 //// 048032 033 016 003 01
224300 2723N 08837W 6967 03145 //// +095 //// 051032 033 013 003 01
224330 2725N 08838W 6967 03146 //// +095 //// 051032 033 011 003 01
224400 2727N 08840W 6968 03143 //// +093 //// 052032 033 016 002 01
224430 2729N 08841W 6967 03146 //// +093 //// 051032 033 014 003 01
224500 2731N 08843W 6967 03147 //// +098 //// 050031 032 008 003 01
224530 2733N 08844W 6967 03147 //// +097 //// 050033 033 010 002 01
224600 2735N 08845W 6968 03147 //// +098 //// 051033 033 008 002 01
224630 2737N 08847W 6965 03153 //// +094 //// 050033 033 006 002 05
224700 2739N 08848W 6967 03151 //// +095 //// 050034 034 012 001 01
224730 2741N 08849W 6969 03147 //// +089 //// 053036 037 015 005 01
224800 2743N 08851W 6967 03151 //// +087 //// 055033 037 020 006 01
224830 2746N 08852W 6968 03149 //// +097 //// 052031 032 009 004 01
$$
;headed home

[ROCK]

Canadian even further eastward at 18Z? Showing a MS/AL border landfall.....

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al962012.png

I think that is the 12Z.....CMC doesnt due 18Z....

[ozonepete]

Slightly off topic, but the talk of a second center, multiple vortices, and the two track camps got me to wondering. Is it even remotely possible for a storm to split into two and head into different directions? Just a wild thought that came to my head and I figured it would be an easy answer here.

Because of the upper level dynamics needed to support it, it is almost impossible once a TC is at this strength. Any of the pro mets could say if they have, but I've never seen or heard of it it happening.

[ronjon]

Don't know if it means much, but the 12z HWRF and CMC models 12 hrs positions (8 PM tonight) are at 26N-89W. Pretty far west from where the center is.

[ozonepete]

Slightly off topic, but the talk of a second center, multiple vortices, and the two track camps got me to wondering. Is it even remotely possible for a storm to split into two and head into different directions? Just a wild thought that came to my head and I figured it would be an easy answer here.

The NOGAPS was suggesting that.

And so is the GFS

YEs, but they do that all of the time on the forecast output and don't show both developing significantly. They will always eventually show one dominating and the other dissipating.

[crimi481]

The ULL to the N.W will squeeze moisture out to N.E. - and train moisture up from Yucatan area
Its shredding cloud tops - once they get up high. How can get stronger? ( lots rain)
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... thod=flash

[ozonepete]

Don't know if it means much, but the 12z HWRF and CMC models 12 hrs positions (8 PM tonight) are at 26N-89W. Pretty far west from where the center is.

So when they run with the new center position tonight we would expect some kind of adjustment to the track.

[caneman]

Would hardly call any model a success right now. A sheared mess with all the action to the North and East and a Naked LLC heading towards Texas thus far. To my knowledge known of the models predicted this. Last I checked the Euro wants to bomb this going towards Texas, which isn't looking likely at this point.

Just my amateur opinion.

[Air Force Met]

The center does not look like its going to relocate....850mb vorticity from 21z looks really healthy.

Please be careful in using the vorticity chart and making a blanket statement like that. First of all...vorticity is where the shear is greatest....where the wind speed and difference in speed is greatest...cyclonically (for PVA).

Second: These maps are WAGS at best. They are made from satellite...which isn't getting really good measurements through the clouds down to 850MB. These maps are BALLPARK...not exact. Take them as such.

Third: In a high gradient situation, such as a 1001 MB low...gyre...nulti-vortex low...you really aren't looking at classic "re-locations." Re-location or reformation indications a totally new center and a dissipation of the old one. In these situations...you really get a lowering of the pressure under the convection forming an elongated trof until the pressure lowers enough for that area to become the main center. The old one then rotates out and around...and dies. The new one will do the same if it can't stay under the convection.

Given all the above: This is why you have to forecast center reformation on this system and why I have been talking about it since last night. It's a classic set-up to do it. Disregard the vort map...just look at the situation and climo. What does that tell you. It tells you that in most cases these lows form a new center to the N or NE. I would place my bets there.

And I would place bets on it doing it a couple of times...and this will certainly mess up the track. If there were NO center reformations...this is a no-brainer into Texas. But with the center getting sucked under the convection over and over...this will get very close to Fl...if not follow the GFS solution.

[tropicwatch]

I wonder if the models are having trouble with the upper level low just off of Louisianna? What happens if it sinks to the surface?

[cycloneye]

Next mission will depart on Sunday Morning at 6:15 AM EDT.

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71 --
A. 24/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0204A CYCLONE
C. 24/1015Z
D. 27.1N 88.5W
E. 24/1100Z TO 24/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[Air Force Met]

I wonder if the models are having trouble with the upper level low just off of Louisianna? What happens if it sinks to the surface?

It won't sink to the surface. Not the right setup for that to happen.