ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[crimi481]

Debbie and friends.

http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/6443/zzdebbie.jpg

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

Where's the "and friends" part?

Debbie, Doodle, and Dingy.?

Is that bump in cloud tops (to the East of NHC's center) a CDO forming? Mid level storm?

[tolakram]

Debbie and friends.

http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/6443/zzdebbie.jpg

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

Where's the "and friends" part?

And friends referring to the multiple vortices.

[Sanibel]

Sheared reflection of surface center IMO.

[Weatherfreak000]

GFS appears to be doing exceptionally well predicting the split in energy.

[crimi481]

A new center? or the east side of the elongated center may be forming near the burst of convection near 26.3N-86W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/flash-avn-long.html

Yes - I just posted about it as well. I am pretty sure its reorganizing there
Look at the heavier bands forming around that center. It fits?
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... thod=flash

Disclaimer: I know less than last time

[ozonepete]

Sheared reflection of surface center IMO.

Since it's still in early development the MLC can form a new LLC under it, especially when there's too much shear over the existing LLC.

[tolakram]

25 frame visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=25

Load that loop up, then speed it way up to get an idea of the rotation and center fix issues.

[Dean4Storms]

I believe the center now with deep convection firing near 25.6N 86W becomes the dominant Low. The convection this deep should lower the pressures there.....


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 232226
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 41 20120623
221900 2606N 08746W 8428 01499 //// +179 //// 071002 004 /// /// 05
221930 2607N 08746W 8429 01500 //// +181 //// 075006 007 /// /// 05
222000 2608N 08747W 8430 01499 //// +180 //// 076008 008 000 001 05
222030 2610N 08748W 8428 01503 //// +180 //// 073008 008 000 001 01
222100 2611N 08749W 8429 01502 //// +178 //// 069009 009 000 003 05
222130 2613N 08750W 8429 01503 //// +184 //// 056011 012 /// /// 05
222200 2614N 08751W 8431 01501 //// +181 //// 052012 012 000 002 05
222230 2616N 08752W 8430 01505 //// +180 //// 046012 012 000 002 05
222300 2617N 08753W 8430 01504 //// +179 //// 046014 014 /// /// 05
222330 2618N 08754W 8430 01505 //// +175 //// 042015 016 000 003 05
222400 2620N 08755W 8429 01507 //// +175 //// 040016 016 000 002 05
222430 2621N 08756W 8429 01508 //// +178 //// 037015 016 000 003 05
222500 2622N 08757W 8429 01508 //// +175 //// 043014 015 001 003 05
222530 2624N 08758W 8430 01507 //// +177 //// 041017 018 001 003 05
222600 2625N 08759W 8432 01506 //// +172 //// 036018 018 004 002 05
222630 2627N 08800W 8425 01512 //// +175 //// 040017 018 006 003 01
222700 2628N 08801W 8433 01505 //// +175 //// 048019 020 018 005 01
222730 2629N 08801W 8427 01511 //// +165 //// 048022 022 022 006 01
222800 2631N 08802W 8432 01509 //// +169 //// 044019 021 021 006 01
222830 2632N 08803W 8429 01512 //// +173 //// 042020 021 022 002 01
$$
;

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 232228
XXAA 73228 99264 70879 08167 99003 27433 03016 00025 27232 03016
92712 22422 03513 85446 18414 04012 88999 77999
31313 09608 82224
61616 AF302 01AAA INVEST OB 15
62626 SPL 2636N08795W 2227 MBL WND 03016 AEV 20802 DLM WND 03514
002843 WL150 03015 084 REL 2637N08794W 222452 SPG 2636N08795W 222
703 =
XXBB 73228 99264 70879 08167 00003 27433 11850 18414 22843 17410
21212 00003 03016 11961 03017 22929 03512 33877 03015 44866 05012
55861 03509 66843 04014
31313 09608 82224
61616 AF302 01AAA INVEST OB 15
62626 SPL 2636N08795W 2227 MBL WND 03016 AEV 20802 DLM WND 03514
002843 WL150 03015 084 REL 2637N08794W 222452 SPG 2636N08795W 222
703 =
;

[Fyzn94]

Debbie and friends.

http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/6443/zzdebbie.jpg

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

Where's the "and friends" part?

And friends referring to the multiple vortices.

Ok I see it now.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The GFS is not showing anything the other models aren't. It has a sheared appearance right now but the center continues to become better defined. Follow the ECMWF model, you'll be rewarded.

[tolakram]

I believe the center now with deep convection firing near 25.6N 86W becomes the dominant Low. The convection this deep should lower the pressures there.....


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

I think that convection has started to fade. The java loop I posted is not ideal, I dislike java loops, but usually updates sooner than the floaters.

25 frame IR loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... =spect.pal

[crimi481]

Decent squalls coming at Sarsota County area from South.
Steady rain here since 10 AM - bands getting little stronger in time
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... W&loop=yes

[Dave]

[Rgv20]

The center does not look like its going to relocate....850mb vorticity from 21z looks really healthy.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 232236
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 42 20120623
222900 2633N 08804W 8431 01511 //// +173 //// 046021 023 020 003 01
222930 2635N 08805W 8432 01511 //// +170 //// 044024 024 020 003 01
223000 2636N 08806W 8432 01513 //// +171 //// 044027 027 020 002 01
223030 2638N 08807W 8429 01514 //// +170 //// 045027 028 019 003 01
223100 2639N 08808W 8431 01514 //// +170 //// 043026 027 020 002 01
223130 2640N 08809W 8429 01516 //// +172 //// 045029 030 020 003 01
223200 2642N 08810W 8411 01534 //// +171 //// 048030 031 020 003 01
223230 2643N 08811W 8082 01883 //// +162 //// 047035 036 023 002 05
223300 2645N 08812W 7704 02286 //// +146 //// 047033 035 /// /// 05
223330 2646N 08813W 7351 02685 //// +130 //// 038031 032 /// /// 05
223400 2648N 08814W 7091 02990 //// +109 //// 041026 030 018 002 01
223430 2649N 08815W 6969 03133 //// +099 //// 036026 026 013 003 01
223500 2651N 08816W 6962 03139 //// +097 //// 039026 027 018 002 01
223530 2653N 08817W 6968 03136 //// +096 //// 037025 027 020 003 01
223600 2655N 08818W 6971 03129 //// +095 //// 038025 025 025 001 01
223630 2657N 08820W 6967 03137 //// +096 //// 034026 027 026 001 05
223700 2659N 08822W 6968 03138 //// +090 //// 035025 027 017 006 05
223730 2701N 08823W 6970 03132 //// +092 //// 039026 027 024 003 01
223800 2703N 08824W 6967 03137 //// +095 //// 038026 027 022 003 01
223830 2705N 08825W 6966 03140 //// +095 //// 039027 027 023 002 01
$$
;

Prop your feet up and relax...we're going home. Mission over.

[ozonepete]

The GFS is not showing anything the other models aren't. It has a sheared appearance right now but the center continues to become better defined. Follow the ECMWF model, you'll be rewarded.

Follow the best consensus and the NHC to be rewarded. It is still way too early to know if the GFS or ECMWF will be right. The ECMWF last run is already old now anyway, and could shift more toward the GFS solution on its next run. Or the other way -

[stormhunter7]

dropsonde on 2nd center at Splash Location: 26.93N 86.61W
Splash Time: 21:41Z pressure 1001mb

Take a look at http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html and tell if the "COC" doesnt reform, and the first one dissipates?

[crimi481]

The center does not look like its going to relocate....850mb vorticity from 21z looks really healthy.

http://i61.photobucket.com/albums/h62/c ... 8vor-1.gif

Just wondering if that cloudless official center - is completing a u-turn and returning to the more organized Low to its east? Hard to tell
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... thod=flash