ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[bbadon]

Correct me if I am wrong, but did not the models for Ike have him hitting the lower Texas coast and then they slowly progressed to the upper Texas coast? I think that is what Ikester is referring to as to being right of track when first time it comes out..I think...




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I think it all depends on how fast it moves west. If it takes its on sweet time that ridge has to break down at some point.



you are not wrong...EURO sniffed IKE out first and sent it to NMEX, It progressed up the coast from there.....

[wxmann_91]

Also for those saying the NHC have gone 100% with the ECM, notice how much slower this system is compared to the ECM run on the track, its still way out in the Gulf at 120hrs whilst the ECM is inland by that point, its a solid 36-48hrs slower than the ECM solution, I think this is the 'cautious' element some people were thinking off, rather than go down the middle they just had the system moving slower than it will in truth.

Yep, the fact that the NHC track slows down dramatically at hrs 72-120, despite the influence of a strong steering ridge, indicates that there is high uncertainty in those hours and that they are not completely disregarding the CMC and GFS OP camps.

[wkwally]

Euro fans and GFS fans one thing is sure, someone is going to get wet

[KWT]

Looks like there is another decent strength circulation to the NE of the main one we've been watching, maybe the system is in the process of re-locating to the NE?

If that does happen than the GFS solution gains a huge amount of credence, because if it happens once then it'll probably happen multiple times...

[ROCK]

IMO, it was the right call for the NHC. The EURO is by far the best performing model we have except maybe the FSU super duper model that no-one can see....

[jlauderdal]

Yea, they can always change their cone, but do it two quickly and you can loose credibility in the public eye.
I don't know, but what they did certainly wasn't playing it safe for the first advisory.

How do they change the cone?

Re-word your sentence. They can change the track. They can't change the cone. The cone is the cone is the cone. It's a statistical 2/3rds error circle for a given forecast point.

I say this because I still see...on every storm...people say "I can't wait to see how big the cone is on this thing" and it drives me crazy.

The cone only changes when the track does.

Can we put this cone stuff to rest folks, as a follow up to AFM's post:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml


Definition of the NHC Track Forecast Cone

Definition:

The cone represents the probable track of the center of a tropical cyclone, and is formed by enclosing the area swept out by a set of circles (not shown) along the forecast track (at 12, 24, 36 hours, etc). The size of each circle is set so that two-thirds of historical official forecast errors over a 5-year sample fall within the circle. The circle radii defining the cones in 2011 for the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins are given in the table below.

One can also examine historical tracks to determine how often the entire 5-day path of a cyclone remains completely within the area of the cone. This is a different perspective that ignores most timing errors. For example, a storm moving very slowly but in the expected direction would still be within the area of the cone, even though the track forecast error could be very large. Based on forecasts over the previous 5 years, the entire track of the tropical cyclone can be expected to remain within the cone roughly 60-70% of the time.

[bella_may]

Hwrf comes out in a hour, don't it?

[RL3AO]

[Dave]

Come on you two..thought I was in the wrong forum! lol

Btw, you can have the pictures for awhile! Tired of bouncing back and forth. lol

[Aric Dunn]

so far the gfs is nailing it.

[bella_may]

IMO, it was the right call for the NHC. The EURO is by far the best performing model we have except maybe the FSU super duper model that no-one can see....

I wouldn't get too carried away just yet

[KatDaddy]

Both IKE and Rita were forecast to make landfall SW of their final landfall locations.

[Tireman4]

Correct me if I am wrong, but did not the models for Ike have him hitting the lower Texas coast and then they slowly progressed to the upper Texas coast? I think that is what Ikester is referring to as to being right of track when first time it comes out..I think...

But you can't compare them unless you get out all of the archived surface and especially upper air charts for many days for Ike and compared them to what's going on, and will go on for Debby. Steering is complex and unique to each storm.

I understand that. I was stating that was an example of a storm going right of first track. That is all. Very general statement. I am not as smart as many on this board. I am just making a comment.

[Jevo]

18z GFS +48


18z GFS +60

[Kingarabian]

Edit: Still a florida landfall nvm.

[KWT]

so far the gfs is nailing it.

If little eddies and circulations keep forming to the NE of the system its going to tug the main system that way in the end, especially with all the convection over that side. It'll gain more latitude and that maybe enough to send it NE rather than west.

It's a wait and see job really...

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 232146
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 37 20120623
213900 2654N 08636W 8431 01509 //// +190 //// 303006 008 /// /// 05
213930 2656N 08637W 8429 01510 //// +189 //// 311004 008 /// /// 05
214000 2657N 08637W 8425 01511 //// +196 //// 360002 004 /// /// 05
214030 2658N 08638W 8436 01501 //// +205 //// 067004 006 000 003 05
214100 2700N 08639W 8429 01508 //// +208 //// 068011 013 000 003 05
214130 2701N 08640W 8429 01508 //// +207 //// 059018 021 000 003 05
214200 2703N 08641W 8426 01510 //// +206 //// 056024 024 002 004 01
214230 2704N 08642W 8433 01504 //// +194 //// 062025 026 002 004 01
214300 2706N 08643W 8426 01513 //// +188 //// 069025 026 006 003 01
214330 2707N 08644W 8432 01506 //// +190 //// 069028 028 007 003 01
214400 2708N 08645W 8430 01506 //// +186 //// 073027 028 012 003 01
214430 2710N 08646W 8430 01508 //// +178 //// 074028 028 020 002 01
214500 2711N 08647W 8430 01508 //// +175 //// 078030 030 021 001 01
214530 2713N 08648W 8429 01512 //// +175 //// 078031 031 018 003 01
214600 2714N 08649W 8429 01512 //// +175 //// 081032 033 021 004 01
214630 2716N 08651W 8429 01518 //// +176 //// 082035 037 023 004 05
214700 2716N 08652W 8428 01520 //// +185 //// 079031 035 025 005 05
214730 2714N 08654W 8434 01510 //// +189 //// 072027 029 026 003 01
214800 2713N 08655W 8428 01514 //// +190 //// 067026 027 025 003 01
214830 2711N 08656W 8431 01512 //// +190 //// 068027 028 027 001 01
$$
;

[Evil Jeremy]

Hwrf comes out in a hour, don't it?

2 hours

[KWT]

Weakness is still strong enough for the system to scoot off to the east towards Florida. It maybe a touch slower this run but it gets to Florida by 72hrs. To be fair that is a *classic* June type track for a sheared system.

[Kingarabian]

So how does this work?

The faster Debbie strengthens the more likely Texas landfall? The slower Debbie strengthens the more likely NNW land fall?

OR is the high going to dictate everything no matter what?