ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[wkwally]

There was a study done by a meteorologist at HGX a few years ago who found that gulf storms who miss their forecast targets miss to the RIGHT almost 70% of the time. Keep that in mind.

Are you hinting at a possibility of Galveston?

No. My personal opinion is if this jets west, I would favor somewhere south of Corpus. A storm just isn't going to plow into a ridge to the likes of the one being forecast over Texas. But my opinion can and probably will change. That's just what I see right now.

IMO I agree one reason I am getting ready for some spotting action here south of Corpus

[Weatherfreak000]

Wonder what will happen if this storm goes east what will everyone say

To quote Wxman57, the GFS is either the greatest model ever or something is wrong with it. I suppose folks would say the GFS is the greatest model ever. LOL

No, I believe they will acknowledge euro is perhaps overrated and a west bias model, like ukmet.



Gfs or euro will buckle...which one will it be?

[KWT]

. There was a study done by a meteorologist at HGX a few years ago who found that gulf storms who miss their forecast targets miss to the RIGHT almost 70% of the time. Keep that in mind.

Thats pretty interesting, I think to be fair if you look at the history of most major Gulf storms they always end up to the east of the forecasted point (Ivan, Katrina, Rita, etc)

The key uncertainty is just how quickly the system shifts off to the west, the longer it takes the greater the threat is to places like E.Texas coast as that upper high is coming to eventually come under pressure and allow some WNW/NW motion, exactly how soon that happens is also obviously key.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 232126
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 35 20120623
211900 2719N 08614W 8429 01522 //// +142 //// 091044 045 045 013 01
211930 2718N 08616W 8432 01517 //// +133 //// 094042 044 048 018 01
212000 2717N 08617W 8423 01525 //// +147 //// 104030 040 045 011 01
212030 2716N 08619W 8435 01508 //// +164 //// 115027 029 043 005 01
212100 2714N 08620W 8431 01511 //// +171 //// 115028 030 044 003 01
212130 2713N 08621W 8428 01513 //// +171 //// 116032 034 043 004 01
212200 2712N 08623W 8432 01506 //// +168 //// 113034 035 039 003 01
212230 2711N 08624W 8428 01508 //// +168 //// 108033 035 034 004 01
212300 2709N 08626W 8432 01503 //// +169 //// 104030 032 032 003 01
212330 2708N 08627W 8430 01504 //// +169 //// 102027 030 026 002 01
212400 2707N 08628W 8431 01502 //// +169 //// 088025 028 025 004 01
212430 2706N 08630W 8439 01492 //// +171 //// 070024 027 023 003 01
212500 2704N 08631W 8424 01505 //// +185 //// 061028 029 024 002 01
212530 2703N 08633W 8432 01499 //// +195 //// 055027 028 021 003 01
212600 2702N 08634W 8430 01504 //// +208 //// 049023 025 012 003 01
212630 2701N 08636W 8430 01506 //// +212 //// 043017 020 009 003 05
212700 2659N 08637W 8429 01510 //// +207 //// 031012 016 000 003 05
212730 2658N 08639W 8428 01512 //// +196 //// 048009 011 000 003 05
212800 2657N 08640W 8422 01521 //// +187 //// 345005 009 /// /// 05
212830 2655N 08639W 8436 01507 //// +184 //// 311005 006 000 003 05
$$
;

[ozonepete]

Yea, they can always change their cone, but do it two quickly and you can loose credibility in the public eye.
I don't know, but what they did certainly wasn't playing it safe for the first advisory.

How do they change the cone?

Re-word your sentence. They can change the track. They can't change the cone. The cone is the cone is the cone. It's a statistical 2/3rds error circle for a given forecast point.

I say this because I still see...on every storm...people say "I can't wait to see how big the cone is on this thing" and it drives me crazy.

The cone only changes when the track does.

hey there AFM, good to see you on here. Yes, it drives me crazy too. A lot of people have the cart driving the horse.

[Tireman4]

Correct me if I am wrong, but did not the models for Ike have him hitting the lower Texas coast and then they slowly progressed to the upper Texas coast? I think that is what Ikester is referring to as to being right of track when first time it comes out..I think...




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[KWT]

Also for those saying the NHC have gone 100% with the ECM, notice how much slower this system is compared to the ECM run on the track, its still way out in the Gulf at 120hrs whilst the ECM is inland by that point, its a solid 36-48hrs slower than the ECM solution, I think this is the 'cautious' element some people were thinking off, rather than go down the middle they just had the system moving slower than it will in truth.

[KWT]

GFS 18z run looks like it starts out with a decent grip of the systems strength and location.

[Air Force Met]

No, I believe they will acknowledge euro is perhaps overrated and a west bias model, like ukmet.

That's kinda like saying the Miami Heat are overrated. It's hard to be overrated when you are #1.

[Dave]

[Ikester]

Correct me if I am wrong, but did not the models for Ike have him hitting the lower Texas coast and then they slowly progressed to the upper Texas coast? I think that is what Ikester is referring to as to being right of track when first time it comes out..I think...




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm referring to any gulf storm. As far as Ike goes, it should be noted that the models didn't have a great handle on that hurricane but Houston and Galveston were never out of the cone. Neither was Beaumont during Rita--regardless of what models show. That's why you watch the CONE and not a single line of a single model run.

[Tireman4]

I'm referring to any gulf storm. As far as Ike goes, it should be noted that the models didn't have a great handle on that hurricane but Houston and Galveston were never out of the cone. Neither was Beaumont during Rita--regardless of what models show. That's why you watch the CONE and not a single line of a single model run.[/quote]

K. I just wanted to make sure I was not getting what you stated out of context.

[ROCK]

Correct me if I am wrong, but did not the models for Ike have him hitting the lower Texas coast and then they slowly progressed to the upper Texas coast? I think that is what Ikester is referring to as to being right of track when first time it comes out..I think...




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

you are not wrong...EURO sniffed IKE out first and sent it to NMEX, It progressed up the coast from there.....

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 232136
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 36 20120623
212900 2654N 08638W 8426 01516 //// +187 //// 202001 004 000 002 05
212930 2653N 08637W 8430 01511 //// +181 //// 262005 007 /// /// 05
213000 2651N 08635W 8430 01512 //// +181 //// 260007 008 /// /// 05
213030 2650N 08634W 8430 01510 //// +182 //// 267008 009 000 002 05
213100 2649N 08633W 8428 01514 //// +183 //// 244011 012 000 003 05
213130 2647N 08632W 8430 01510 //// +177 //// 224014 015 004 003 05
213200 2646N 08631W 8428 01514 //// +180 //// 224016 017 001 004 05
213230 2645N 08630W 8426 01515 //// +175 //// 227019 020 002 004 01
213300 2644N 08628W 8429 01512 //// +175 //// 224020 021 003 003 05
213330 2642N 08627W 8430 01511 //// +175 //// 225022 023 000 005 05
213400 2642N 08626W 8418 01528 //// +175 //// 221021 022 /// /// 05
213430 2643N 08625W 8430 01510 //// +176 //// 216019 021 000 003 01
213500 2645N 08626W 8432 01507 //// +177 //// 220016 017 001 003 05
213530 2646N 08628W 8430 01511 //// +182 //// 220016 017 001 003 01
213600 2647N 08629W 8425 01515 //// +179 //// 217016 017 001 003 05
213630 2648N 08630W 8429 01511 //// +180 //// 222011 014 001 004 05
213700 2649N 08632W 8431 01509 //// +180 //// 253007 009 002 003 05
213730 2650N 08633W 8427 01513 //// +185 //// 256006 008 000 004 05
213800 2651N 08634W 8433 01508 //// +182 //// 263005 005 /// /// 05
213830 2653N 08635W 8425 01515 //// +185 //// 238005 006 000 002 05
$$

[Jevo]

18z GFS +12


18z GFS +24


18z GFS +36

[Weatherfreak000]

GFS maybe shifting left towards panhandle?

[RL3AO]

Another closed low to the NE of the advisory position.

[ozonepete]

Correct me if I am wrong, but did not the models for Ike have him hitting the lower Texas coast and then they slowly progressed to the upper Texas coast? I think that is what Ikester is referring to as to being right of track when first time it comes out..I think...

But you can't compare them unless you get out all of the archived surface and especially upper air charts for many days for Ike and compared them to what's going on, and will go on for Debby. Steering is complex and unique to each storm.

[KWT]

It does a little further west but still going for the eastern solution from the looks of things...

[Aric Dunn]

not surprising and there will be others with all the shear