ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Rgv20]

It will be interesting to see the first track...the NHC likes to follow the TVCN model (blend) which currently loops around Nola into the Florida Panhandle...we will see

I will be surprised if they used the TVCN, I'm more interested as to what they have to say about the GFS. Personally I would use a blend of the 12zECMWF, 12zUKMET, and 12zHWRF. But the safest bet is just showing Debby stationary south of LA for a couple of days and stress to the public that this is a very very low track forecast.

Yes I just quoted myself lol.....NHC kind of followed my thinking!

[jlauderdal]

Wow. NHC went with the Euro model primarily. That was unexpected.

miami nws office has been saying since yesterday that nhc(which is down the hall, literally) was favoring a westerly solution, this isn't a surprise at all

[johngaltfla]

Wow. NHC went with the Euro model primarily. That was unexpected.

Yes very unexpected. Also a very short discussion as expected from Avila. Would have thought they would not commit to west or east yet. It's rare the NHC goes completely against the GFS operational. Cant remember the last time they did that.

Me neither which sort of blows my mind. We may not have a good fix on the final direction until 0500 tomorrow when the shear lets up more.

[AHS2011]

Expect a few changes from the NHC on the 11 P.M. E.S.T. update.

[Dave]

[KWT]

In this case it really does seem likely to be one or the other. Its a tough one, early season systems tend to go further NE than expected and in this case any more N/NE motion will be enough to scoot it off to the ENE/NE, but if the ridge is strong enough and moves in fast enough then the system will get shunted westwards.

Could go either way yet IMO.

[Weatherfreak000]

The NHC cone commonly changes significantly by about the third or fourth advisory. Nothing for certain here clearly a significant amount of uncertainity. All I got from that discussion was, "we are team euro".

[Kingarabian]

Yeah I most def. think the NHC will back off from a sharp west forecast. Maybe a bit WNW?

[Hurricane Andrew]

I wouldn't say they went primarily with the EURO. The 12z HWRF has a similar solution.

And the UKIE

[Kingarabian]

In this case it really does seem likely to be one or the other. Its a tough one, early season systems tend to go further NE than expected and in this case any more N/NE motion will be enough to scoot it off to the ENE/NE, but if the ridge is strong enough and moves in fast enough then the system will get shunted westwards.

Could go either way yet IMO.

Good to see you KWT

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 232106
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 33 20120623
205900 2807N 08519W 9630 00414 //// +211 //// 121038 039 024 003 01
205930 2806N 08520W 9630 00413 //// +210 //// 118037 038 022 004 01
210000 2805N 08521W 9631 00412 //// +209 //// 116037 038 023 005 01
210030 2804N 08522W 9631 00409 //// +210 //// 116036 038 023 004 01
210100 2803N 08524W 9628 00412 //// +208 //// 115036 038 023 003 01
210130 2802N 08525W 9630 00410 //// +208 //// 114037 038 023 004 01
210200 2800N 08527W 9631 00407 //// +207 //// 115037 038 024 006 01
210230 2759N 08528W 9631 00407 //// +202 //// 114037 038 025 007 01
210300 2758N 08529W 9629 00408 //// +204 //// 113036 037 025 006 01
210330 2757N 08531W 9627 00408 //// +204 //// 111039 041 023 005 01
210400 2756N 08532W 9630 00405 //// +208 //// 110040 041 022 006 01
210430 2755N 08533W 9629 00404 //// +212 //// 106039 040 024 005 01
210500 2754N 08535W 9631 00400 //// +210 //// 104040 041 023 003 01
210530 2752N 08536W 9630 00400 //// +211 //// 106041 041 026 001 01
210600 2751N 08537W 9631 00399 //// +209 //// 109041 041 022 004 01
210630 2750N 08539W 9627 00403 //// +206 //// 110041 042 024 005 01
210700 2749N 08540W 9630 00399 //// +207 //// 110043 044 026 003 01
210730 2748N 08541W 9630 00398 //// +206 //// 109041 043 028 003 01
210800 2747N 08543W 9631 00395 //// +205 //// 108042 043 030 004 01
210830 2745N 08544W 9440 00561 //// +194 //// 116045 046 032 002 05
$$
;

[Kingarabian]

Pretty pathetic how CNN has NOTHING on this potential Hurricane threat.

[StormingB81]

Wonder what will happen if this storm goes east what will everyone say

[Texas Snowman]

Expect a few changes from the NHC on the 11 P.M. E.S.T. update.

We'll see. But I doubt it will be a pronounced difference from their current thinking (i.e. bring it back sharply to the east or northeast. If changes in forecast track thinking occur w/next few advisories, IMO, they will be gradual.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Yeah I most def. think the NHC will back off from a sharp west forecast. Maybe a bit WNW?

Storms don't barrel directly into high pressure areas. If anything, the storm will move west-southwest before landfall.

[ROCK]

The NHC follows the Euro Solution.

hmmm....the NHC joins the EURO....I think that pretty much puts the GFS talk to rest..

UKMET started the trend, CMC , NOGAPS, NAM, and then the EURO followed. When in doubt go with your biggest gun...

[KWT]

I think the west solution isn't without merit, the NHC must be looking at what the GFS based models are producing and thinking its doing its east bias thing.I think AFM had a great point earlier about the center getting tugged further NE though some models are expecting, I've seen the models get fooled many times by as much as 2-3 degrees within 24hrs, and in this case thats the difference between the western and eastern solution.

Super early 4th TS though!!

[ROCK]

Expect a few changes from the NHC on the 11 P.M. E.S.T. update.

care to tell us what those might be?

[Rgv20]

12zECMWF Ensemble Means is tightly clustered with the operational run of the Euro, maybe just a tad SW. I can see why the NHC went with the Euro as it is closing in at that 72hr mark in which it is really reliable.

Forecast Valid for Wednesday Morning (96hrs)

[Texas Snowman]

Pretty pathetic how CNN has NOTHING on this potential Hurricane threat.

Well, for starters, Debby just officially formed. Plus it is the weekend. And while many of us here believe that there is a hurricane threat, the NHC forecast doesn't bring it to hurricane intensity all the way out to Thursday.

They're not going to over-react to a 50 mph tropical storm days from landfall.