ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Air Force Met]

I also forgot to add that this is yet another TS that skipped TD status entirely like all of them so far this year (if I remember correctly). The same happened last year in the Atlantic. This is now becoming a trend.

Was mentioning this to my wife. Years ago...we used to have only one storm every 3-4 years that would skip TD status...now its 3-4 a year.

This means there is a culture change towards caution at the NHC. Not to thrilled about it either. But that's for another thread...

[Ikester]

I also forgot to add that this is yet another TS that skipped TD status entirely like all of them so far this year (if I remember correctly). The same happened last year in the Atlantic. This is now becoming a trend.

We haven't had a lot of "traditional' tropical cyclone this year... they were already gales and were just waiting to transition to a warm-core system.

Yeah the first 3 storms were baroclinically induced. The thunderstorms that eventually became Alberto, Beryl and Chris were caused by jet forcing. We have yet to have a storm in the main development region initiated by a traditional tropical wave---although it is a bit early to see development here anyway.

[ROCK]

HPC following the EURO it seems.....

for the TVCN huggers: that is a blend weighed heavily on the GFS. See here.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 232007
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 27 20120623
195900 2507N 08500W 9634 00392 //// +218 //// 199051 051 039 006 01
195930 2509N 08500W 9633 00392 //// +217 //// 198050 051 038 010 01
200000 2511N 08500W 9623 00400 //// +213 //// 198051 052 039 018 01
200030 2513N 08500W 9631 00393 //// +194 //// 195049 052 048 023 01
200100 2515N 08500W 9628 00392 //// +187 //// 196050 053 048 023 01
200130 2517N 08500W 9624 00396 //// +200 //// 197052 053 041 013 01
200200 2519N 08500W 9628 00392 //// +197 //// 196049 052 040 014 01
200230 2521N 08500W 9637 00386 //// +195 //// 195044 049 038 018 01
200300 2523N 08500W 9614 00404 //// +196 //// 200039 042 041 019 01
200330 2525N 08500W 9640 00380 //// +203 //// 206034 038 036 017 01
200400 2526N 08500W 9634 00385 //// +200 //// 207033 035 036 022 01
200430 2528N 08500W 9624 00396 //// +211 //// 210034 036 030 012 01
200500 2530N 08500W 9635 00382 //// +212 //// 209031 034 027 010 01
200530 2532N 08500W 9625 00393 //// +205 //// 213035 037 033 012 01
200600 2533N 08500W 9635 00381 //// +201 //// 213035 037 031 012 01
200630 2535N 08500W 9627 00387 //// +209 //// 212037 038 033 012 01
200700 2537N 08500W 9635 00378 //// +204 //// 200031 036 035 015 01
200730 2539N 08500W 9631 00382 //// +194 //// 189035 037 046 019 01
200800 2541N 08500W 9635 00380 //// +194 //// 178037 040 046 019 01
200830 2543N 08500W 9632 00381 //// +196 //// 173039 041 048 020 05
$$
;

[ROCK]

The CMC ensembles are evenly split--1/3 to Texas, 1/3 to Louisiana, 1/3 to Florida. Even the GFS ensembles are almost evenly split, with 7 heading towards Texas, 9 heading towards Florida and the remainder somewhere in between. So even the models that we are relying on are very much split. Which means that only a slight variation one way or the other will determine where Debbie goes.

yep...you dont get a split like that everyday. I have never seen that.

[cycloneye]

Rocon finding good winds at flight level and at smfr.

Flight Level 53 kts; sfmr 46 kts

[Dave]

[Texas Snowman]

I also forgot to add that this is yet another TS that skipped TD status entirely like all of them so far this year (if I remember correctly). The same happened last year in the Atlantic. This is now becoming a trend.

Was mentioning this to my wife. Years ago...we used to have only one storm every 3-4 years that would skip TD status...now its 3-4 a year.

This means there is a culture change towards caution at the NHC. Not to thrilled about it either. But that's for another thread...

Totally agree with this.

[cycloneye]

Recon finding good winds.

Flight level 53 kts; sfmr 46 kts

[Ivanhater]

Also speculation, I would imagine the north central Gulf coast will go under tropical storm watches/warnings tonight given the tropical storms winds are on the east side.

[wkwally]

Well from the look of things I should gear up the Jeep as I think I am going to be on a chase.

[vbhoutex]

Also speculation, I would imagine the north central Gulf coast will go under tropical storm watches/warnings tonight given the tropical storms winds are on the east side.

I agree with that. I don't see how they can't with the close proximity to land. The only kicker I can see would be the fact that currently there isn't much movement or very slow movement expected. I will not be surprised if they issue watches with the first advisory.

[Ivanhater]

Also speculation, I would imagine the north central Gulf coast will go under tropical storm watches/warnings tonight given the tropical storms winds are on the east side.

I agree with that. I don't see how they can't with the close proximity to land. The only kicker I can see would be the fact that currently there isn't much movement or very slow movement expected. I will not be surprised if they issue watches with the first advisory.

It is a tough call for sure and they will certainly urge the point that it will be a low confidence forecast...

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 232018
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 28 20120623
200900 2544N 08500W 9628 00384 //// +204 //// 177043 046 049 017 01
200930 2546N 08500W 9633 00380 //// +215 //// 177044 047 034 006 01
201000 2546N 08500W 9633 00380 //// +216 //// 170044 045 036 005 01
201030 2550N 08500W 9629 00381 //// +215 //// 169043 045 033 008 01
201100 2552N 08500W 9627 00383 //// +214 //// 170048 049 035 007 01
201130 2554N 08500W 9630 00379 //// +210 //// 167048 051 036 008 01
201200 2556N 08500W 9635 00375 //// +196 //// 166046 047 041 013 01
201230 2558N 08500W 9628 00382 //// +192 //// 166046 047 043 016 01
201300 2600N 08500W 9629 00380 //// +191 //// 162047 047 040 013 01
201330 2602N 08500W 9634 00376 //// +203 //// 160048 049 040 009 01
201400 2604N 08500W 9626 00383 //// +202 //// 156048 048 036 010 01
201430 2606N 08500W 9627 00381 //// +206 //// 153047 049 035 008 01
201500 2608N 08500W 9628 00382 //// +199 //// 152049 050 037 012 01
201530 2610N 08500W 9638 00372 //// +189 //// 149049 050 037 012 01
201600 2611N 08500W 9632 00378 //// +188 //// 151052 054 037 010 01
201630 2613N 08500W 9630 00380 //// +194 //// 152052 053 036 009 01
201700 2615N 08500W 9627 00381 //// +206 //// 152049 050 037 007 01
201730 2617N 08500W 9635 00375 //// +203 //// 150050 052 037 008 01
201800 2619N 08500W 9631 00377 //// +194 //// 149056 057 040 010 01
201830 2621N 08500W 9633 00377 //// +190 //// 146057 058 040 009 01
$$
;

Flt Lvl: 58 kts; SFMR: 49 kts

[BobHarlem]

Tornado warnings are starting to pop up along the southwestern Florida coast. It's going to be a long weekend.

[sittingduck]

Steady light rain here in Venice for the last couple of hours - the good ground soaking kind - hope that is all we get

[thetruesms]

The NHC does not like to go against the TVCN and if they do, they almost always mention it....They certainly have a hard time with the GFS/GFDL/CMC all going against the Euro and HWRF

I personally think they will show a stall for now but well see..

It makes absolutely no sense to use a blend of models when the models within the blend show two distinctly different physical scenarios. Multi-model ensembles are useful when the model set has the same big-picture idea.

[WeatherGuesser]

Well from the look of things I should gear up the Jeep as I think I am going to be on a chase.

Unless you live in one of the directly affected areas (wherever that may be), it would probably be better if you stayed home. Sightseers don't really help.

[vbhoutex]

Also speculation, I would imagine the north central Gulf coast will go under tropical storm watches/warnings tonight given the tropical storms winds are on the east side.

I agree with that. I don't see how they can't with the close proximity to land. The only kicker I can see would be the fact that currently there isn't much movement or very slow movement expected. I will not be surprised if they issue watches with the first advisory.

It is a tough call for sure and they will certainly urge the point that it will be a low confidence forecast...

I sure hope they do. The problem is that some will say "it probably won't come here since they aren't sure where it will go" and may not prepare. We all know that most people don't prepare till just before a storm as opposed to preparing before the season.

[cycloneye]

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IMO,it seems that the moment shear lessens as that ULL in Texas coast moves away, Debby will become significantly better organized and with the very warm waters,I wont speculate on how strong it will get. And I wont venture on a possible track.