ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[bella_may]

I don't think I've ever seen them not use the tvcn. Hmm, should be interesting

[thundercam96]

From 28storm On Facebook:

Hurricane Season 2012 will be the first, at least in the satellite era, to have 4 named storms before July. #tropics

[gatorcane]

This WV loop shows the two main features very well: 96L and the upper-level low anchored in the NW GOM. That upper-level low is keeping this system in check right now as it is inducing a good bit of SW shear over 96L keeping all of the convection to the east of the center.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

That ULL will move SW allowing better conditions in the next couple of days.

Very impressive outflow channel on the NE Quad. Look at the fanning cloud tops arching all the way down into the Central Caribbean in this wide-view WV loop....if that ULL over the NW GOM moves out, it could definitely ramp up. I can see why the ECMWF and CMC are doing what they are doing.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

[Ivanhater]

It will be interesting to see the first track...the NHC likes to follow the TVCN model (blend) which currently loops around Nola into the Florida Panhandle...we will see

I will be surprised if they used the TVCN, I'm more interested as to what they have to say about the GFS. Personally I would use a blend of the 12zECMWF, 12zUKMET, and 12zHWRF. But the safest bet is just showing Debby stationary south of LA for a couple of days and stress to the public that this is a very very low track forecast.

The NHC does not like to go against the TVCN and if they do, they almost always mention it....They certainly have a hard time with the GFS/GFDL/CMC all going against the Euro and HWRF

I personally think they will show a stall for now but well see..

[Sanibel]

Rumbling down here with more constant small drop tropical type rain. Little wind.

[SouthDadeFish]

I think that eddy out to the west is in the process of dying and a new center is reforming closer to the convection:



Live loop here:

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/index.php?region=gulf&channel=lc

[bella_may]

Whens the next euro and hwrf run?

[Evil Jeremy]

Whens the next euro and hwrf run?

EURO: 10 hours
HWRF: 4 hours

[bella_may]

Getting a pretty good shower here now

[SunnyThoughts]

We get a little torpical rain shower here, then the sun comes out...rinse and repeat. Guess that is what we can expect the rest of the weekend into next week. Hope nobody gets flooded too bad with this storm...good luck everybody.

[Dave]

[carpe vinum]

We have Debby.

source?
did I miss a bulletin or you re seeing something?

[Florida1118]

We have Debby.

source?
did I miss a bulletin or you re seeing something?

Its not official yet; the navy page did call it Debby though.

[senorpepr]

We have Debby.

source?
did I miss a bulletin or you re seeing something?

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

AL, 04, 2012062318, , BEST, 0, 260N, 876W, 40, 1001, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 120, 0, 0, 1008, 250, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DEBBY, M,

That's from the NHC Automated Tropical Cyclone File.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 231956
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 26 20120623
194900 2459N 08531W 9630 00386 //// +227 //// 211036 038 022 005 01
194930 2459N 08529W 9629 00387 //// +229 //// 212040 042 021 005 01
195000 2459N 08527W 9633 00383 //// +230 //// 208037 038 019 006 01
195030 2459N 08525W 9630 00388 //// +229 //// 208037 038 023 007 01
195100 2459N 08523W 9629 00388 //// +220 //// 211040 042 026 007 01
195130 2459N 08522W 9632 00386 //// +220 //// 210037 041 022 007 01
195200 2500N 08520W 9630 00390 //// +219 //// 210036 038 026 005 01
195230 2500N 08518W 9630 00389 //// +220 //// 208038 039 025 006 01
195300 2500N 08516W 9629 00391 //// +212 //// 206041 043 030 007 01
195330 2500N 08514W 9623 00397 //// +213 //// 205043 044 034 014 01
195400 2500N 08512W 9632 00389 //// +193 //// 205046 047 043 023 01
195430 2500N 08510W 9624 00397 //// +190 //// 207051 052 046 023 01
195500 2500N 08509W 9633 00390 //// +196 //// 209051 053 037 018 01
195530 2500N 08507W 9626 00396 //// +201 //// 212052 053 036 015 01
195600 2500N 08505W 9632 00391 //// +192 //// 211051 053 039 012 01
195630 2500N 08503W 9626 00398 //// +206 //// 209047 049 036 010 01
195700 2500N 08501W 9635 00393 //// +206 //// 204046 048 030 007 05
195730 2501N 08500W 9623 00403 //// +199 //// 198043 045 032 012 01
195800 2503N 08500W 9628 00397 //// +212 //// 200049 050 035 007 01
195830 2505N 08500W 9626 00398 //// +219 //// 200051 051 039 006 01
$$
;

Flt 53 kts; sfmr 46 kts

[Cyclenall]

I also forgot to add that this is yet another TS that skipped TD status entirely like all of them so far this year (if I remember correctly). The same happened last year in the Atlantic. This is now becoming a trend.

[Rgv20]

HPC afternoon discussion....This may shed some light and the forecast track from the NHC.

FINAL...
THE AVAILABLE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERED NO COMPELLING REASON TO
MAKE ANY CHANGES FOR THE FINAL DAY 3-7 FORECAST. IN FACT...OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO...12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN EVEN LESS
AGREEMENT THAN THEY WERE FOR THE 00Z RUNS. THE 12Z GFS STILL
TRACKS A SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THEN
DEVELOPS A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY
DAY 4. THE 12Z UKMET ADJUSTED FASTER WITH ITS WESTWARD TRACK INTO
SOUTH TEXAS...THE 12Z CMC NOW BRINGS THE SYSTEM STRAIGHT INTO THE
LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI COAST...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF LOOKED SIMILAR
TO ITS 00Z WITH A STEADY WESTWARD TRACK WESTWARD. GIVEN THE LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS STORM...THE NHC/HPC COORDINATED
TRACK FOR DAYS 3-7 STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO CONTINUITY...WITH A
SLIGHT WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT MADE CONSIDERING THE BEST ENSEMBLE
CLUSTERING.

[senorpepr]

I also forgot to add that this is yet another TS that skipped TD status entirely like all of them so far this year (if I remember correctly). The same happened last year in the Atlantic. This is now becoming a trend.

We haven't had a lot of "traditional' tropical cyclone this year... they were already gales and were just waiting to transition to a warm-core system.

[bella_may]

Wow 319 guests trolling right now. You guys should go ahead and register and join the discussion.

[Hammy]

I'm noticing that rain shield working its way east in Florida, hopefully Brevard can get some rain to make up more for the dry winter