ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[stormhunter7]

Navy had TS Debby http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

[ROCK]

The center is going to continue to reform under intense convection, until conditions are a little better. I think the Panhandle is a pretty safe bet for landfall.

maybe.....but the EURO which is far the best model we have says otherwise. Still a split camp. I dont think anyone can assume any one place on the GOM is a place for landfall.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Best Track position.


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[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 231916
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 22 20120623
190900 2456N 08823W 9732 00282 0049 +240 +233 264020 020 011 002 00
190930 2456N 08821W 9736 00278 0049 +240 +233 261020 020 011 002 00
191000 2456N 08819W 9735 00278 0048 +240 +234 260020 020 010 002 00
191030 2455N 08817W 9733 00279 0048 +240 +231 258021 022 014 001 00
191100 2455N 08815W 9736 00276 0047 +240 +232 259023 023 017 001 00
191130 2455N 08814W 9736 00275 0047 +240 +232 256024 024 015 002 00
191200 2454N 08812W 9733 00278 0047 +240 +232 255023 023 017 002 00
191230 2454N 08810W 9734 00278 0047 +240 +236 255024 024 016 002 00
191300 2454N 08808W 9734 00279 0047 +240 +235 252023 024 012 002 00
191330 2454N 08806W 9737 00275 0046 +240 +234 254024 024 018 002 00
191400 2454N 08804W 9739 00273 0045 +240 +236 251025 025 018 002 00
191430 2454N 08802W 9735 00276 0045 +240 +233 251024 024 016 002 00
191500 2454N 08800W 9734 00275 0045 +240 +232 251024 025 019 002 00
191530 2454N 08758W 9736 00274 0044 +240 +231 249026 027 020 002 00
191600 2454N 08756W 9737 00273 0044 +243 +228 247027 028 021 002 00
191630 2454N 08754W 9734 00275 0044 +241 +230 245028 028 022 003 00
191700 2454N 08752W 9735 00273 0043 +242 +228 245028 029 021 002 00
191730 2454N 08751W 9735 00274 0043 +245 +222 244029 030 022 002 00
191800 2455N 08749W 9739 00271 0043 +242 +230 241028 029 023 001 00
191830 2455N 08747W 9732 00276 0043 +242 +230 242029 029 022 001 00
$$
;

[WeatherGuesser]

Navy had TS Debby http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

Just noticed that. 04L.Debby

[Evil Jeremy]

Still hard not to go with the rest of the models ECMWF/UKMET/CMC/NOGAPS which send this west.

CMC doesn't bring it west anymore, it's pretty much north on the 12z run. And GFDL joined GFS. The models are everywhere.

[Dave]

[ROCK]

What the GFS thinks will send this system to East is seen starting to materialize in this WV loop. Look at the upper-left corner of the screen and you can see another trough and associated low getting ready to swing through the northern Great lakes.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html

You can see in the 12Z GFS run (500MB layer) that in 48 hours how this low creates a big weakness along the eastern coast of the United States. High pressure is sitting over Oklahoma with good ridging to NW of the 96L that has moved north into the North-Central GOM. Tropical systems take the path of least resistance which would send it NE or ENE not west:

http://weather.unisys.com/gfs/gfs.php?i ... n=us&t=48h

Still hard not to go with the rest of the models ECMWF/UKMET/CMC/NOGAPS which send this west.

the GFS spits out a weakness because Debby gives birth to Ernesto.....

[Ivanhater]

Still hard not to go with the rest of the models ECMWF/UKMET/CMC/NOGAPS which send this west.

CMC doesn't bring it west anymore, it's pretty much north on the 12z run. And GFDL joined GFS. The models are everywhere.

Yes, Canadian is Biloxi/Mobile

[gatorcane]

Certainly looks to me the LLC is moving further away from the MLC/convection to the east which is move NNE. Could it be that the LLC moves west and stays weak but the main energy gets shunted to the NE over Florida? I am starting to wonder if the GFS has had this right all along the more I look at things today. The problem is that the ECMWF really consolidates this in the next 24-48 hours. I just can't see that happening with the strong shear from the ULL in the NW GOM that does not seem to be dissipating. It appears the ECMWF may not be handling that feature properly. The UKMET overdoes ridges and the CMC has shifted to the right...

What a win for the GFS if it verifies.....

[Air Force Met]

Do you all think the NHC will pull the trigger at 5?

More than likely. The NHC at 2pm already gave multiple clues that they were considering it. "Per buoy...Sat. data and preliminary recon data...." That tells me right there they just need confirmation of a closed center. If they find it, it's Debby.

I think you meant to say a well defined closed center. The center is certainly closed. There is NO DOUBT about that.

And for the record...I do not see how they DON'T upgrade it at 4...other than the fact it's Avila working the desk. This is a TS.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

GE is running a little slow...hopefully it'll catch up before the end of the mission...

If my site ever misses an observation, you can add it here:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/addobservation/
It's simple to use, though no one ever seems to use it. While my site is updating every 2 minutes at the moment, for some reason on infrequent occasions the server must cache the data it downloads and doesn't try to download it again for a bit. Then an observation gets missed. (Other times the obs are just put out in the file faster than my site is set to retrieve data, making it miss some obs.) I try to reduce the load on the system by not having it always update every minute.

[SouthFloridawx]

The SE quad is going to be interesting.

[tailgater]

Doesn't look to my old eyes like it's getting any better organized than it was earlier this morning. Pro's?

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 231926
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 23 20120623
191900 2455N 08745W 9735 00274 0042 +242 +231 241029 030 021 002 00
191930 2455N 08743W 9736 00272 0042 +244 +227 240030 030 021 003 00
192000 2455N 08741W 9724 00281 0041 +242 +230 239030 031 023 002 00
192030 2455N 08739W 9723 00286 0044 +241 +230 240032 033 024 002 00
192100 2455N 08736W 9724 00283 0043 +240 +236 237032 034 027 002 00
192130 2455N 08734W 9732 00275 0042 +240 +233 235034 035 026 002 00
192200 2455N 08731W 9736 00272 0042 +240 +234 231034 034 025 003 00
192230 2455N 08728W 9733 00275 0042 +240 +236 229033 035 025 002 00
192300 2455N 08726W 9734 00273 0041 +240 +236 229033 034 025 002 00
192330 2456N 08723W 9736 00271 0041 +240 +233 230034 034 025 001 00
192400 2456N 08721W 9735 00272 0042 +240 +233 230033 034 025 001 00
192430 2456N 08718W 9733 00275 0042 +240 +233 229034 035 025 000 00
192500 2456N 08715W 9734 00274 0043 +240 +232 228034 034 024 001 00
192530 2456N 08713W 9736 00274 0043 +240 +231 228033 034 022 003 00
192600 2456N 08710W 9734 00275 0044 +240 +230 229034 034 023 000 00
192630 2456N 08708W 9736 00276 0045 +239 +234 225032 034 024 000 00
192700 2456N 08705W 9736 00275 0046 +239 +233 225033 034 023 001 00
192730 2456N 08702W 9737 00275 0045 +240 +229 226034 035 023 001 00
192800 2456N 08700W 9737 00274 0045 +240 +226 227034 034 022 002 00
192830 2457N 08657W 9733 00278 0045 +240 +225 228033 034 025 002 00
$$
;

Flt Lvl: 35 kts; sfmr 27 kts - no flags

[WeatherGuesser]

I hate that 'sce ... ' word, but if #3 on the previous page plays out, I'd love to see if come further due north. We need rain desperately.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

As this upper-level low that is currently shearing it backs southwest, upper level ridging should develop near Debby and help provide an environment conducive for further development. It's possible that the anticyclone could stay with Debby all the way to Texas (IMO) and help the storm slowly/gradually strengthen. I think we'll see a Category 1 hurricane landfall north of Brownsville but south of Galveston by next Friday.

[WeatherGuesser]

And for the record...I do not see how they DON'T upgrade it at 4...other than the fact it's Avila working the desk. This is a TS.

I'm on page refresh mode waiting for the maps to hit at any moment.

[vaffie]

The CMC ensembles are evenly split--1/3 to Texas, 1/3 to Louisiana, 1/3 to Florida. Even the GFS ensembles are almost evenly split, with 7 heading towards Texas, 9 heading towards Florida and the remainder somewhere in between. So even the models that we are relying on are very much split. Which means that only a slight variation one way or the other will determine where Debbie goes.

[gatorcane]

Still hard not to go with the rest of the models ECMWF/UKMET/CMC/NOGAPS which send this west.

CMC doesn't bring it west anymore, it's pretty much north on the 12z run. And GFDL joined GFS. The models are everywhere.

Yes, Canadian is Biloxi/Mobile

Yes I see that now. Interesting that the 12Z CMC plows future Debby right through the ridge. Could suggest the Midwest ridge will not be as strong as previously thought. Plus a pretty big swing to the right from the CMC.