ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 231746
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 13 20120623
173900 2534N 08711W 9732 00269 0034 +235 +235 227017 017 014 000 00
173930 2535N 08711W 9737 00264 0034 +235 +233 231016 017 014 001 00
174000 2537N 08711W 9733 00268 0034 +236 +232 229015 016 015 001 00
174030 2539N 08711W 9731 00269 0034 +230 +230 224015 015 013 001 01
174100 2540N 08711W 9740 00261 0034 +238 +235 221014 015 010 002 00
174130 2542N 08711W 9735 00266 0034 +230 +230 217014 014 011 001 01
174200 2544N 08711W 9736 00264 0033 +235 +234 216014 014 011 001 00
174230 2545N 08711W 9735 00265 0032 +236 +232 215014 014 011 002 00
174300 2547N 08711W 9735 00263 0032 +236 +233 214013 014 010 002 00
174330 2547N 08711W 9735 00263 0032 +237 +232 212012 013 008 002 00
174400 2550N 08711W 9737 00262 0031 +240 +229 213013 013 007 001 00
174430 2552N 08711W 9737 00262 0031 +239 +234 208011 013 006 002 00
174500 2553N 08711W 9734 00264 0031 +237 +236 200010 011 006 002 00
174530 2555N 08712W 9739 00261 0032 +235 +233 201010 011 007 001 00
174600 2557N 08712W 9736 00264 0032 +238 +231 198009 011 008 001 00
174630 2558N 08712W 9737 00261 0032 +238 +232 189008 009 006 001 00
174700 2600N 08712W 9737 00262 0032 +239 +232 190007 008 007 000 00
174730 2602N 08712W 9736 00264 0032 +230 +230 159004 007 007 001 01
174800 2603N 08712W 9733 00265 0031 +230 +230 129005 005 006 000 01
174830 2605N 08712W 9732 00265 0031 +230 +230 121005 005 008 001 01
$$
;

[Evil Jeremy]

12z GFDL: Florida Big Bend landfall:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

EDIT: Hey Jevo, what site did you get those HWRF images from?

http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/models.html

Ah, so he finally updated his site. Up until yesterday it was still on Beryl, and wasn't showing anything from 96L.

[Hurricane Andrew]

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[BigB0882]

The CMC is scary as it spends a lot of time just hanging around the coast (3 days!!! and deepening the entire time) before going ashore. Horrible flooding, if that happens.

[WeatherEmperor]

Luis,

The bigger green circle with that swirl is moving SW on visible satellite. IF this is the main center of circulation, what could that mean for the future track? Maybe the Euro would be correct in bringing this more West instead of E like the GFS shows??

[tailgater]

This thing is huge. The entire gulf and thensome

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BUOY OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE DATA...AND PRELIMINARY RECONNAISSANCE
DATA INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL STORM MAY BE FORMING IN THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IF THE PLANE IS ABLE TO IDENTIFY A WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE WIND CIRCULATION...THEN ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY...AND INTERESTS IN THIS
AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LOW. HEAVY
RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND
MUCH OF FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE
SEE MARINE FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA

[Evil Jeremy]

EURO running now.

24 hours out:

[ronjon]

The NHC's got a real puzzle here as we await the king Euro. From the 12z model suite, the NOGAPs now has a "split" low - one to the east, one to the west, the HWRF & UKMET is W-SW to Tx, the CMC is a tad easterward of its early run now LF at Biloxi-Mobile, the GFDL is FL Big Bend, and GFS east across the FL peninsula. Oh, and add climatology to a NE GOM LF. Clear as mud, LOL!

[deltadog03]

I wonder if the EURO is trying to make this too strong too quickly, and thats why its really shoving this W

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 231756
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 14 20120623
174900 2606N 08712W 9733 00264 0031 +230 +230 124004 005 005 002 01
174930 2608N 08712W 9735 00263 0031 +235 +232 114005 005 005 000 00
175000 2609N 08712W 9735 00262 0030 +234 +233 122008 009 006 001 00
175030 2611N 08712W 9739 00258 0030 +230 +230 108009 009 009 000 01
175100 2613N 08712W 9736 00261 0030 +228 +227 086010 011 005 002 03
175130 2614N 08713W 9735 00260 0029 +228 +228 081009 010 007 002 00
175200 2616N 08713W 9738 00257 0029 +230 +230 084010 012 006 003 00
175230 2617N 08713W 9734 00261 0029 +220 +220 070013 013 008 003 01
175300 2619N 08713W 9734 00261 0028 +220 +220 059013 013 015 001 01
175330 2620N 08713W 9734 00259 0027 +220 +220 055012 013 012 001 01
175400 2622N 08713W 9737 00256 0027 +220 +220 051011 012 010 001 01
175430 2623N 08713W 9732 00260 0026 +220 +220 044011 011 009 001 01
175500 2625N 08713W 9733 00259 0025 +220 +220 042009 011 009 001 01
175530 2626N 08713W 9737 00254 0024 +220 +220 043009 009 012 001 01
175600 2628N 08713W 9732 00258 0023 +220 +220 056008 009 006 002 01
175630 2629N 08713W 9738 00251 0021 +230 +230 062009 010 008 001 01
175700 2631N 08713W 9736 00251 0018 +230 +230 070009 010 012 000 01
175730 2633N 08714W 9737 00247 0014 +239 +234 065009 009 011 001 00
175800 2634N 08714W 9737 00245 0012 +240 +239 058010 012 011 004 03
175830 2635N 08713W 9733 00245 0009 +240 +240 086015 017 /// /// 05
$$
;

[Hurricane Andrew]

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[chaser1]

it will likely keep spiiting ot vorts till the shear relaxrs ... if it does. not going to stregthen much.

Once again, an undetermined center usually resolves poleward.

[b]Here I think lies the issues with this whole dynamic mess and why there is such descrepency with the major models. Given everything that has transpired, I think the ultimate result will be NHC to update the 2:00pm Tropical Weather Update to indicate recon is "presently enroute" (or investigating) however that surface reports seem to indicate that T.S. conditions are occuring east of the center, and that a Tropical Storm or Sub-Tropical Storm has formed....and special Updates if applicable will follow....

As previously stated, this should most accuratly be considered a baroclinically formed storm as winds and squalls to tropical storm strength do exist, however do we yet really have a surface COC that is co-located with a mid level center? This is obviously not a vertically stacked system, thus the ongoing expulsion of low level swirls that the lower levels are wanting to carry off to the west. Meanwhile, (and also stated previously) the mid level vorticity has continued to move more northward with the 500mb flow and while surface lows continue to attempt to develop from the very sharp surface trough associated, upper air conditions have thus far continued to shear off the tops and whatever low level spin that is created, they are yet to remain co-located long enough for this to truly develop into a true tropical entity. This is actually why I think the EURO ( and nearly all other models ) have it all wrong. "If" a truely tropical storm is borne from all this, it will likely be not until tomorrow at the earliest and as GFS is depicting, much farther north along the coast perhaps near the North Florida coastline. Only "if" and "when" this were to occur, would I consider the "model majority" to be correct with a strong storm to then be caught under the building and advancing ridge, thus forcing this storm Westward or WSW'ward. Problem is that because upper level conditions have thus far remained less than conducive, the EURO and other models are simply attemping to spit out a forecast based on a presently deepening tropical cyclone and then further attempting to indicated motion based on such a structure. The upper level low now moving westward seems to be shrinking and now impacting a more southerly component of shear on the system. Should such a low continue to move southward, than ideal conditions would immediatly aid in upper difluence. Such would ultimately work toward a western track solution AND perhaps a Cat1 Hurricane to evenually impact somewhere along the Texas coast. I do not think this to likley occur and have got to give "props" to the GFS model for fairly consistanly forecasting a weaker system that I believe will eventually develop enough tropical characteristics to be classified as such, but not until a bit forther north and yet think it will remain weak enough for its energy to be pulled east or N.E.'ward without being caught under the east advancing ridge. Finally and once again, a low level system will then start moving WSW from near the Fla. panhandle and eventually disipate under the less conducive Central and W. Gulf upper air conditions.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Evil Jeremy]

EURO 48 hours out:

[cycloneye]

GCANE,is that small ULL in Texas coast at the same place that was this morning?

[vaffie]

Euro heading wsw

[wxman57]

That larger green circle on Cycloneye's graphic is the western vortex that's moving almost due south. The smaller circle is of another vortex that's moving west. The center if the broad circulation is south of the smaller circle. There are probably 1 or 2 more vortices still obscured on the east side of the broad circulation. We see this quite often with poorly-defined systems. Eventually, a vortex forms closer to the convection and then it takes off. Small vortices in "clear air" are not the place to watch.

[chaser1]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

[b][color=#0000FF]BUOY OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE DATA...AND PRELIMINARY RECONNAISSANCE
DATA INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL STORM MAY BE FORMING

Opps, looks like my post a minute ago got "beat out" LOL

[Hurricane Andrew]

WXman, when(if) do you think a vort will "take off"

[Hurricaneman]

The NE vortex according to recon is the stronger area of low pressure