ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 231706
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 09 20120623
165900 2635N 08821W 9663 00348 0053 +230 +226 059029 030 029 001 00
165930 2634N 08820W 9664 00345 0052 +230 +222 058031 032 029 000 00
170000 2633N 08818W 9665 00344 0051 +230 +223 057031 033 029 000 00
170030 2632N 08817W 9664 00343 0050 +230 +226 053031 032 030 001 00
170100 2631N 08816W 9663 00342 0048 +230 +227 052030 032 029 000 00
170130 2629N 08815W 9667 00338 0046 +231 +224 051031 032 031 000 00
170200 2628N 08814W 9659 00343 0045 +230 +228 048029 032 031 000 00
170230 2627N 08812W 9669 00334 0045 +230 +230 052028 029 029 002 01
170300 2626N 08811W 9666 00335 0043 +229 +228 057030 031 028 001 00
170330 2625N 08810W 9664 00337 0042 +229 +227 059029 031 029 001 00
170400 2624N 08809W 9664 00336 0042 +220 +220 059029 030 027 001 01
170430 2623N 08808W 9663 00336 0041 +225 +225 063033 034 029 002 00
170500 2622N 08806W 9664 00335 0041 +220 +220 067033 034 031 000 01
170530 2621N 08805W 9662 00336 0040 +220 +220 070030 032 030 001 05
170600 2620N 08804W 9663 00333 //// +215 //// 069029 029 028 001 01
170630 2619N 08803W 9667 00329 0038 +220 +220 070028 029 029 001 01
170700 2617N 08803W 9663 00331 0036 +226 +223 070027 028 028 000 00
170730 2616N 08802W 9662 00331 0036 +220 +220 066029 029 027 001 01
170800 2615N 08801W 9668 00326 //// +207 //// 065029 029 031 004 01
170830 2614N 08800W 9709 00288 //// +205 //// 062029 030 032 005 01
$$
;

[Hurricane Andrew]

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[bella_may]

Canadian looks like around mobile at 96 hours

Oh great.

[brunota2003]

unflagged 32 knot wind read by the SFMR, with estimated pressures in the 1003 millibar range thus far, still no wind shift yet though.

[lebron23]

Does NHC go with Euro into Texas....? TVCN into Louisiana??....GFS into Florida...?

[wxman57]

I'm gonna have to disagree with you, the "CENTER" Is so wide right now that those two vorts are included in the center

That's not disagreeing, they're rotating southward on the west side of a large circulation area.

[LSU2001]

what is the strength prediction upon land fall ?

Intensity forecasts are pretty difficult esp. when there isn't even a storm yet. However, with the predicted shear I have seen everything from a low end Hurricane to a moderate 45-50 mph Tropical Storm. Best thing to do is watch and wait.
Tim

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[wxman57]

Does NHC go with Euro into Texas....? TVCN into Louisiana??....GFS into Florida...?

My guess is north, stall, W-WSW and still offshore at 5 days south of TX/LA border, generally pointing to the mid to lower TX coast. I doubt they'd commit to landfall yet. We'll see in 3.5 hrs.

[psyclone]

Future Debby looks to be dousing the western side of the Florida peninsula for the remainder of the day. Washout.

[lebron23]

Does NHC go with Euro into Texas....? TVCN into Louisiana??....GFS into Florida...?

My guess is north, stall, W-WSW and still offshore at 5 days south of TX/LA border, generally pointing to the mid to lower TX coast. I doubt they'd commit to landfall yet. We'll see in 3.5 hrs.

I cant see them not going with TVCN.. lol

[Hurricane Andrew]

Any thoughts on the 2pm T-W-O?

[JtSmarts]

Any thoughts on the 2pm T-W-O?

I'm betting Near 100% and "advisories will likely be initiated later if trends persist."

[lebron23]

Any thoughts on the 2pm T-W-O?

Either staying at 90, or if there going to upgrade it 100

[psyclone]

Does NHC go with Euro into Texas....? TVCN into Louisiana??....GFS into Florida...?

My guess is north, stall, W-WSW and still offshore at 5 days south of TX/LA border, generally pointing to the mid to lower TX coast. I doubt they'd commit to landfall yet. We'll see in 3.5 hrs.

If the 5 day track is indeed that slow, the cone will take on that head-scratching circular shape we've seen with other slow moving systems. It might be one of the of those scenarios where a good chunk of the gulf coast is within that cone since the system is centrally located in the gulf. fun times.

[trave2]

I'm gonna have to disagree with you, the "CENTER" Is so wide right now that those two vorts are included in the center

That's not disagreeing, they're rotating southward on the west side of a large circulation area.

The vort on the westside is moving south, the vort on the eastside is stationary or drifting north

Ok then Look @ recon, they will pinpoint "center " soon

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 231716
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 10 20120623
170900 2612N 08759W 9765 00236 //// +221 //// 064030 031 030 002 01
170930 2611N 08758W 9876 00134 0030 +240 +240 062028 029 031 001 01
171000 2610N 08757W 9801 00199 0028 +230 +230 063029 029 031 001 01
171030 2609N 08756W 9810 00192 0028 +230 +230 061030 031 030 002 01
171100 2607N 08755W 9829 00174 0026 +230 +230 062030 031 032 001 01
171130 2606N 08754W 9813 00188 0027 +230 +230 073024 029 029 002 01
171200 2605N 08753W 9802 00198 0026 +230 +230 077025 026 028 003 01
171230 2604N 08752W 9805 00194 //// +221 //// 076026 026 029 003 01
171300 2603N 08751W 9807 00190 0023 +230 +230 082025 026 029 002 05
171330 2601N 08751W 9801 00195 0020 +240 +240 088021 025 026 002 01
171400 2600N 08751W 9807 00187 0019 +240 +240 097014 018 022 001 01
171430 2558N 08750W 9808 00187 0019 +240 +240 101009 013 014 001 01
171500 2556N 08751W 9806 00187 0018 +240 +240 122004 007 007 001 01
171530 2555N 08751W 9806 00187 0018 +240 +240 189002 004 010 000 01
171600 2553N 08751W 9805 00189 0019 +240 +240 231004 004 008 002 00
171630 2552N 08751W 9808 00187 0020 +240 +238 243005 006 010 001 00
171700 2550N 08751W 9807 00189 0021 +240 +238 253006 006 011 000 00
171730 2549N 08751W 9807 00190 0022 +240 +238 256007 008 009 002 03
171800 2548N 08750W 9807 00191 0022 +240 +237 248008 008 005 002 00
171830 2546N 08749W 9808 00190 0023 +240 +238 254008 009 009 001 00
$$
;
1001.8 mb

[tailgater]

does some have that google earth site where you can follow the HH? thanks in advance.

[brunota2003]

Hello wind shift...estimated pressure of 1002 mb from the aircraft. Will we see a VDM?

[Dave]

GE site

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/

[Hurricane Andrew]

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