ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

96L is being sheared some right now, but conditions should continue to improve for it as an upper-level anticyclone develops across the east Gulf and expands. This won't be an asymmetric tropical storm forever..

[tropicwatch]

I think we are close to having Debby.

Station 42003
NDBC
Location: 26.044N 85.612W
06/23/2012 1450 UTC
Winds: SE (140°) at 33.0 kts gusting to 44.7
Significant Wave Height: 14.8 ft
Dominant Wave period: 9 sec
Mean Wave Direction: SSE (166°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.66 in and falling
Air Temperature: 77.5 °F
Water Temperature: 82.4 °F

[tailgater]

repost

[SFLcane]

Dont really see any signs of quick development still is being sheared and will remain in a somewhat hostile upper enviroment 3-5 days. Naked vortex continues to get all its t-storms stripped towards the NE.

http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/2km.php?loop=1&type=vis&region=Gulf_Mexico

[gatorcane]

Some observations:

-Outflow is very impressive on the eastern side of the system
-Shear continues to impact the system due to a ULL in the NW GOM
-The system looks like a TD now, so I would expect it to be classified at any moment, likely by 5pmEST (wouldn't be surprised if it skips TD status and is classified as a TS)
-Really difficult to say where this goes. I can see why the GFS is insisting on it turning east. I see the shortwave folks are mentioning. Caveat: didn't the GFS get a SW upgrade recently? If so I wonder what the older GFS SW would do with this.
-I can also see it going west because the trough along the eastern seaboard doesn't look like it is deep enough to catch this system
-Overall the system is behaving pretty closely to what most of the global models showed earlier this week: a weak low consolidating over the Gulf but nothing too strong (I know a few runs of the CMC and ECMWF did show a strong system).
-It's following June climatology pretty closely on both strength and movement

[Dave]

Do not post discussions in this main recon thread that may cause the data to get lost...here is the thread to discuss all about what is going on as the data comes in:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113013

[Ivanhater]

[Dean4Storms]

I don't see the west drift, still looks like a drift north. You guys might be seeing that vort?

[TampaCE]

Currently it is cloudy with a pleasant "light breeze" out of the southeast in extreme eastern St. Petersburg near Tampa Bay.

I went for a run down 1st Street by Shorecrest this morning and the humidity was so thick I am still sweating after my shower. You're right about the breeze, it was very light.

[vaffie]

I think we are close to having Debby.

Station 42003
NDBC
Location: 26.044N 85.612W
06/23/2012 1450 UTC
Winds: SE (140°) at 33.0 kts gusting to 44.7
Significant Wave Height: 14.8 ft
Dominant Wave period: 9 sec
Mean Wave Direction: SSE (166°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.66 in and falling
Air Temperature: 77.5 °F
Water Temperature: 82.4 °F

Pressure dropping pretty fast now, impressive considering that at this time of the day pressures typically rise and we are close to the diurnal minimum. One minute windspeed of 39 knots. At this rate of strengthening, "Debbie" should have winds of 55+ mph by 1 pm central time and hurricane force winds later tonight.

[robbielyn]

Thank you. Its not going west yet.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Looking good this morning....gotta be at least a TD.

http://i61.photobucket.com/albums/h62/c ... LF_vis.jpg

Could I have a link to that?

[Rgv20]

12zGFS starting, looks like it initialize the low fairly well. Is it going to stick with the eastern solution? We shall soon know!

FWIW the 0zGFS at 12 hrs was to NE with the low and less ridging...

[robbielyn]

Brian Norcross just said its looking like its already a ts but obviously waiting for nhc to call it and they are not ready I guess to call it.

Its normal to meander when center is forming.

Im not a met I can't even say I stayed at an holiday inn express last night :either

[Hurricane Andrew]

1001mb, 24hours.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal024.gif

[TexasF6]

Don't forget to use the disclaimer in your posts.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ROCK]

this should be interesting run....IMO it will stay the same as the last run....

[Big O]

The silver line is indicative of what the NHC would use as a track..not always the case, but mostly.

Am I seeing things or does this map already have the 12z CMC plot in yellow.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like GFS might go west this run!

[HouTXmetro]

I see the Eddy, but my untrained eye sees the overall LLC meandering SW at the moment.