ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[sfwx]

Great explanation of the models!!

000
FXUS62 KMLB 230743
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
335 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

.DISCUSSION...


SUN-TUE...OBVIOUSLY THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE
DEVELOPING GOMEX LOW AND MORE IMPORTANTLY...THE COMPLETE AND UTTER
DISPARITY BETWEEN THE GFS PLUS SOME OF THE GFS-BASED GUIDANCE...AND
THE MAJORITY OF THE REMAINDER OF MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS IN WHERE
THE LOW EVENTUALLY TRACKS. IN A NUTSHELL...BOTH CAMPS CONTINUE TO
HOLD SERVE FOR THE MOST PART. THE GFS CONTINUES TO OFFER UP A MUCH
MORE LOCALLY IMPACTING SOLUTION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...WHILE THE ECM/UKM/NAM SEND IT WEST TOWARD
TX. WHILE THE GFS SOLN CAN`T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...IT SEEMS A
MORE UNLIKELY BET THAT A MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN AXIS THAT FAR NE
WITH ONLY A POS TILT EXTENSION (WEAKNESS) BACK TOWARD FL WOULD CATCH
THE SYSTEM AND SLING IT EAST TO ENE.

WHAT`S INTERESTING IS THAT ALL THREE GLOBALS (ECM/UKM/GFS) DO SHOW
THE ERN CONUS TROUGH CATCHING A PIECE OF VORTICITY AT H50 AND
PULLING IT NEWD AWAY FROM THE MID LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE GOMEX LOW
ACROSS NORTH FL AND INTO THE ATLC LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT. WHERE I THINK
THE GFS MIGHT BE GOING ASTRAY IS THAT IT STARTS OFF WITH H50 HEIGHTS
ABOUT 10-20M LOWER NORTH OF THE GOMEX LOW...THEN COMPOUNDS THINGS BY
OVERDOING SURFACE PRES FALLS BENEATH THE PIECE OF ENERGY THAT GETS
CARRIED OFF INTO THE ATLC (CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PERHAPS?). IN ANY
EVENT...THE LOCAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE MORE WEIGHT TO THE
NON-GFS CAMP...WHICH STILL PORTENDS A DEEP SRLY MOISTURE FEED AND
HIGH RAIN CHANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ONLY SLOWLY LOWERING BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MAX TEMPS STILL BELOW CLIMO FOR MOST OF THE SHORT RANGE
OWING TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIP.
IT WILL SURELY INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS ALL TURNS OUT BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.




SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...CRISTALDI

[cycloneye]

Looks like convection finally firing over what may be the center. A lot of maybes.

http://img811.imageshack.us/img811/6403/zz96.jpg

loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

Let's see when the sun comes out there how it looks.

[ronjon]

That ULL is actually helping ventilate the storm to the north. Shear near the center has actually dropped off to less than 10 kts. This appearance I think is typical of June storms - lopsided. But things might start coming together for development today. Is it me or did the COC move NE overnight?

[GCANE]

Looks like convection finally firing over what may be the center. A lot of maybes.

http://img811.imageshack.us/img811/6403/zz96.jpg

loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

Let's see when the sun comes out there how it looks.

Watching rain-rate here - not impressive up to now.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_p ... atest.html

[NDG]

I am still tracking that little eddy that was spotted yesterday evening, is now heading NE, located near 24.4N & 87.5W
Looks to definetely be rotating around a larger ciculation near 25.2N & 88W

[GCANE]

That ULL is actually helping ventilate the storm to the north. Shear near the center has actually dropped off to less than 10 kts. This appearance I think is typical of June storms - lopsided. But things might start coming together for development today. Is it me or did the COC move NE overnight?

The other ULL at 28N 67W also aiding ventilation

[robbielyn]

U can check visible now

[caneman]

That ULL is actually helping ventilate the storm to the north. Shear near the center has actually dropped off to less than 10 kts. This appearance I think is typical of June storms - lopsided. But things might start coming together for development today. Is it me or did the COC move NE overnight?

The other ULL at 28N 67W also aiding ventilation

Looks to be steering it more Northerly though doesn't it??

[ronjon]

06Z NOGAPs now splits the vorticity along the northern GOM with a piece moving east and one going west, LOL!

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_troplant&prod=z85&dtg=2012062306&set=Tropical

[NDG]

Nice TD force winds that the buoy has been reporting during the last hour, with the COC to its SW.

Conditions at 42003 as of
(5:50 am CDT)
1050 GMT on 06/23/2012:
Wind Direction (WDIR): SE ( 130 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 27.2 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 33.0 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 10.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 6.7 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): SSE ( 161 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.70 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.00 in ( Steady )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 77.4 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.4 °F

[TheBurn]

10:45 Z G-13 WV_Enhanced

[GCANE]

Nice towers east and SE of Cancun - pretty far from the LLC though.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... 0-lalo.jpg

[ronjon]

06z GFS holding firm with east track across FL.

GFS

[GCANE]

DMAX may have fired off one small, short duration hot tower near the COC at 24.5N 87.5N.

Need to see if we get cirrus from it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[cycloneye]

GCANE,is that ULL stationary?

[GCANE]

Latest temp profile of the core.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 1206230129

Will be watching if it improves today

[GCANE]

GCANE,is that ULL stationary?

It looks to be.

It formed from a UL trough in the past 12 hrs.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I am still tracking that little eddy that was spotted yesterday evening, is now heading NE, located near 24.4N & 87.5W
Looks to definetely be rotating around a larger ciculation near 25.2N & 88W

That's about right where I would put it as well. Clearly visible now on satellite. Its not further south and or east.
The main circulation that is at 25N 88 or so W

[cycloneye]

Up to 90%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO APPEARS TO BE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ABOUT 275
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IN
ADDITION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND A NOAA BUOY LOCATED ABOUT 130 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER HAS PRODUCED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...OR
MORE LIKELY A TROPICAL STORM...COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT IF
THE DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...
90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...AND INTERESTS IN THIS
AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LOW. HEAVY
RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND MUCH OF FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[brunota2003]

Wouldn't it be something if the GFS verified?