ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

I still stand by my estimate.

http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... 546_an.gif

Do you agree with the 00z Best Track position?

233N 879W

[vaffie]

Models backing away from development hmmmmm....

GFDL and HWRF are very bad at predicting strengthening storms until the storm reaches 1000 mb (weak tropical storm status), then they strengthen it. But even then, they're not the best if you ask me. Sometimes they go crazy and produce 900 mb storms, which only tells you that conditions are very favorable, because you hardly ever see those kinds of storms anyway. As for the GFS, maybe one out of three or four times does it ever show very intense storms, and typically only when they are already intense. It doesn't have the resolution, I think, which is why they're replacing it with the FIM model soon, which is a very high resolution model. Anyway, those are some thoughts of mine on the subject. In addition, NOGAPS, you may have observed, hardly ever shows significant intensification for any storm, and it's tracks are almost always into Mexico, it's too funny actually. And today is no exception.

[Rgv20]

AL96, 233N 879W, 30kts, 1004mb, DB INVEST

Taking a close look at the Global Models from 12z the ECMWF, UKMET, and GFS verified nicely in regards to the position of the low. IMO tonight's GFS is going to flip to the West...

[Air Force Met]

If you look at the VIS loop, anyone think there is a low in the centerish of the convection, at about 22.8N 86W? It's messy down there.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html

Is not on the surface, that's a mid level vorticity.

Exactly. There are some on here looking at the mid level vort center and seeing the surface low. It aint so.

Bottom line is: THERE IS NO CENTER. There is NO LLC. There is just a broad low and the center of that low is somewhere near 23/24 and 87/88. Everything is rotating around that...including a nice little vortex that popped out from under the MLC that is fooling some people.

IT IS STILL A MESS. There is very little in the way of deep convection over water...and that means it will be at least tomorrow before another LLC can get going under deep convection...assuming it forms on the east side of the broad low (which I think it will).

[Hurricane Andrew]

I'll take the 0z NAM posting.

[NDG]

I still stand by my estimate.

http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... 546_an.gif

Do you agree with the 00z Best Track position?

233N 879W

Earlier that is where I was tracking the broad COC, but as the evening has continued it appears that the possible LLC is becoming the COC.

[cycloneye]

Spreaking of Best Track for 96L,here are all the plots until the 00z one.

[NDG]

I still stand by my estimate.

http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... 546_an.gif

Could I please have a link to that loop?

Here is the link, you have to create it where you want it centered and which satellites to use.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gini_sat.html

[Aric Dunn]

notice it said ne of the yp ...

[Aric Dunn]

disregard that little eddy. keep focus on the convection sse of there.

[ROCK]

AL96, 233N 879W, 30kts, 1004mb, DB INVEST

Taking a close look at the Global Models from 12z the ECMWF, UKMET, and GFS verified nicely in regards to the position of the low. IMO tonight's GFS is going to flip to the West...

I agree...it doesnt really have a choice unless it wants to bust incredibly bad. Kudos to the UKMET (which I think was by accident) and the CMC for sniffing out this trend way before the others.

[tailgater]

I agree with AFM but I do think it's getting pretty close, as it's not nearly as broad as it was this morning.

[Hurricane Andrew]

I still stand by my estimate.

http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... 546_an.gif

Could I please have a link to that loop?

Here is the link, you have to create it where you want it centered and which satellites to use.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gini_sat.html

What settings do you use?

[robbielyn]

If you look at the VIS loop, anyone think there is a low in the centerish of the convection, at about 22.8N 86W? It's messy down there.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html

Is not on the surface, that's a mid level vorticity.

Exactly. There are some on here looking at the mid level vort center and seeing the surface low. It aint so.

Bottom line is: THERE IS NO CENTER. There is NO LLC. There is just a broad low and the center of that low is somewhere near 23/24 and 87/88. Everything is rotating around that...including a nice little vortex that popped out from under the MLC that is fooling some people.

IT IS STILL A MESS. There is very little in the way of deep convection ovehr water...and that means it will be at least tomorrow before another LLC can get going under deep convection...assuming it forms on the east side of the broad low (which I think it will).

In truth it shouldn't fool people cuz that swirl is moving too fast for it being a llc.

[Aric Dunn]

If you look at the VIS loop, anyone think there is a low in the centerish of the convection, at about 22.8N 86W? It's messy down there.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html

Is not on the surface, that's a mid level vorticity.

Exactly. There are some on here looking at the mid level vort center and seeing the surface low. It aint so.

Bottom line is: THERE IS NO CENTER. There is NO LLC. There is just a broad low and the center of that low is somewhere near 23/24 and 87/88. Everything is rotating around that...including a nice little vortex that popped out from under the MLC that is fooling some people.

IT IS STILL A MESS. There is very little in the way of deep convection over water...and that means it will be at least tomorrow before another LLC can get going under deep convection...assuming it forms on the east side of the broad low (which I think it will).

its true there is no llc no organized center. there are however areas and things to pay attention to that many have alluded too.

[SunnyThoughts]

What a hugeeee system

[crimi481]

Key West Radar loop
Impressive band approaching S.W. coast
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... x&loop=yes

[ROCK]

for fun the 18Z NOGAPS....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[robbielyn]

Brian Norcross says if it goes west it will be a stronger system than if it goes northeast towards fl. Here it will be a wet mess. Sheer will keep strengthening at bay as it gets in the northern Gulf.

[Hurricane Andrew]

SREF
15z-87 hrs: 1003mb S of LA
21z-87hrs: 1002mb to the SW of the 15z position at 87hrs.