ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[ROCK]

Portastorm brought up a good point,,,the UKMET has never wavered from its western solution even before the CMC....not that I look at the UKMET but it should be noted......

[Evil Jeremy]

I am going to have to fire Jeremy....

Hey, there's a reason I'm Evil lol.

120 Hours:

[South Texas Storms]

Portastorm brought up a good point,,,the UKMET has never wavered from its western solution even before the CMC....not that I look at the UKMET but it should be noted......

That's true Rock. And I think that the UKMET is the 2nd most accurate tropical model.

[cycloneye]

So the 12z score is:

West

NOGAPS
ECMWF
CMC
UKMET

East

GFS
GFDL
HWRF

[ROCK]

Brownsville? hard to tell but what you can tale away is this is the 2nd run of the EURO with a western solution and stronger....

[Ivanhater]

Portastorm brought up a good point,,,the UKMET has never wavered from its western solution even before the CMC....not that I look at the UKMET but it should be noted......

That's true Rock. And I think that the UKMET is the 2nd most accurate tropical model.

I'm pretty sure it is not. I would have to look at the stats from last season

[ROCK]

So the 12z score is:

West

NOGAPS
ECMWF
CMC
UKMET

East

GFS
GFDL
HWRF

oh man, hard to go against that top group....

[Ikester]

Brownsville? hard to tell but what you can tale away is this is the 2nd run of the EURO with a western solution and stronger....

Chatting with a co-worker, I've been telling him that if this decides to go west, I think it'll be a northern Mexico issue simply based on the ridging parked over Texas. Check out the charts below. Keep in mind, this is the GFS so it shows the storm moving to Florida but the ridge is what I want you to see...

http://wxmaps.org/pix/avnmr.vort.html

[Dean4Storms]

Tally NWS map here shows the Low taking shape well west of where the center appears to be forming today then banking on the west turn........

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphicast.php?site=tae&gc=3

[South Texas Storms]

Brownsville? hard to tell but what you can tale away is this is the 2nd run of the EURO with a western solution and stronger....

I think this is the 3rd run in a row of the Euro showing it coming to Texas. It started with yesterday's 12z run.

[Weatherfreak000]

UKMET is a west bias tropical model. The same Canbe said of the EURO. GFS tends to have a right bias, and the GFDL and HWRF follow suit. Its as if you were looking at alternate dimensions seperated by perhaps the smallest of variables. Tomorrow, model error should decrease considerably, all we can do is wait.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 96, 2012062218, , BEST, 0, 227N, 881W, 25, 1005, DB

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

Is that the position you have it Aric?

[vaffie]

Brownsville? hard to tell but what you can tale away is this is the 2nd run of the EURO with a western solution and stronger....

Looks like it curves, first going WSW, then W, then WNW at the very end as the high pressure in the E moves SE-ward toward Florida and a new cold front enters the central plains. My concern (for the Houston area) is that reformation to the south, as seems to be occurring will delay its move just enough, and result in a NNW, NW, W, NW track that will take it to this area as the CMC shows rather than the Euro track that is currently showing a quick N, stall, then SW, W, WNW track that takes it into Brownsville.

[Ivanhater]

Just be weary of any trends with certain models, as many of you have been here a while, we do not have a center yet and any relocation's which could be happening will throw a wrench in it....

[tropicwatch]

Here is loop that shows a possible circulation just north of Yucatan.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfvs.html

Zoom in and you can see it better.

[Senobia]

Pro Mets here in SETX don't seem concerned much. This is from today's forecast on KFDM out of the Beaumont, Texas area.

Synopsis.....Hot and dry thru the weekend as high pressure aloft continues to build. The area of disturbed weather in the southern Gulf will move slowly west to the lower Texas coast by the middle of next week. Bottom line it will be a slow process and slow mover. Should be no direct threat to SE Texas.

[Evil Jeremy]

144 hours:



No need to post the rest of the run. That's three Texas bound EUROs in a row now...

[Ivanhater]

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 221830
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1830 UTC FRI JUN 22 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962012) 20120622 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120622  1800   120623  0600   120623  1800   120624  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    22.6N  88.3W   23.6N  88.9W   24.7N  89.5W   25.2N  90.0W
BAMD    22.6N  88.3W   23.6N  88.1W   24.9N  88.0W   26.1N  88.1W
BAMM    22.6N  88.3W   23.5N  88.5W   24.5N  88.8W   25.3N  88.8W
LBAR    22.6N  88.3W   23.4N  88.3W   24.8N  88.5W   26.1N  88.4W
SHIP        25KTS          32KTS          39KTS          44KTS
DSHP        25KTS          32KTS          39KTS          44KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120624  1800   120625  1800   120626  1800   120627  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    25.4N  90.1W   24.3N  89.3W   24.5N  86.4W   25.2N  83.0W
BAMD    27.1N  88.4W   27.5N  89.4W   27.2N  89.8W   27.0N  88.4W
BAMM    25.7N  88.9W   25.7N  88.4W   26.1N  85.7W   26.0N  81.0W
LBAR    27.0N  88.2W   27.1N  87.5W   28.3N  85.1W   30.9N  81.3W
SHIP        52KTS          60KTS          58KTS          51KTS
DSHP        52KTS          60KTS          58KTS          51KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  22.6N LONCUR =  88.3W DIRCUR =  30DEG SPDCUR =   2KT
LATM12 =  22.2N LONM12 =  88.5W DIRM12 =  43DEG SPDM12 =   3KT
LATM24 =  21.7N LONM24 =  89.0W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =  150NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD =  225NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[ROCK]

Just be weary of any trends with certain models, as many of you have been here a while, we do not have a center yet and any relocation's which could be happening will throw a wrench in it....

3 runs for the EURO, 5 runs of the CMC, 6 runs with the UKMET, god knows how many runs of the NAM.....

that is consistency for a west solution...all showing the trof aint going to be deep enough to pick it up and out....