ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[ROCK]

here is where it gets tricky.....does the trof backdoor down as the GFS shows or will the high build in and move it west......oh the suspense....

[Dean4Storms]

I agree Aric...... Wonder if Recon was out there if they wouldn't be finding a closed off TD!

[Weatherfreak000]

ROCK is correct, CMC has been out to lunch intensity-wise consistently for a long time. This overbloated cane looks far too unlikely in June. I'm concerned with NGOM flooding issues.

[Nimbus]

Just west of that convective burst Aric is talking about there were some low level clouds visible whipping south around a vortex. I think this vortex will continue to revolve NW out into the gulf around the mid level circulation, might even become the primary center if the system stacks up a little better. There is another vortex further west now dropping south that lost its convection in the dry air mass.

Haven't looked at the upper air pattern yet but AFM said its dry and the front up near the gulf coast may linger or get amplified if this mess moves too far north.

[Aric Dunn]

I agree Aric...... Wonder if Recon was out there if they wouldn't be finding a closed off TD!

well its would probably not be well defined enough... its just the beginning stages.

[ROCK]

ROCK is correct, CMC has been out to lunch intensity-wise consistently for a long time. This overbloated cane looks far too unlikely in June. I'm concerned with NGOM flooding issues.

yeah alot of moisture going to be pumped into the NGOM states.....

[Evil Jeremy]

12z HWRF out, takes 96L to Florida, just south of where the big bend starts. GFDL lost the system early on.

[PTrackerLA]

ROCK is correct, CMC has been out to lunch intensity-wise consistently for a long time. This overbloated cane looks far too unlikely in June. I'm concerned with NGOM flooding issues.

yeah alot of moisture going to be pumped into the NGOM states.....

Weather forecasters around here sure aren't concerned with that. Nothing but high heat and dry only forecast! Can't wait to see the rest of this Euro run.

[ROCK]

it misses the trof

come on Evil keep up!!!

[Evil Jeremy]

72 Hours:

[Ivanhater]

I see the HWRF and GFS still take it into Florida...I'm glad the models are coming into line today

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/hwrf/2 ... /slp13.png

[vaffie]

12z HWRF out, takes 96L to Florida, just south of where the big bend starts. GFDL lost the system early on.

To be expected, as I understand it--as they are nested in the GFS global model, which is bringing a strong front to the East coast. If/once the GFS backs off from that idea and goes with the other globals (UKMET/EURO/CMC), they will line up too and take it west. Considering that it seems to be reforming further south, though the NHC hasn't changed the center location yet, the models will all be right biased because the longer it waits and the further south it ends up the stronger the central plains high becomes and the more it will push westward.

[vaffie]

At 72 hours, the EURO is showing continued strengthening and in overall size and movement south of west.

[ROCK]

this looks like the CMC all over again....

[Ikester]

Hi Everybody! Been long time since I've posted on this forum. But I'm back and would like to contribute a lil' something. Clearly there is considerable difference between the GFS and Euro runs. But I think the key here is what's going on over Greenland. If you notice, the Euro doesn't show high positive height anomolies over Greenland like the GFS. I still wouldn't count out a move to the east. It really depends on the ridging and how deep the trough gets. If you look at H5, you can clearly see that there are little shortwaves imbedded in the trough itself which I think determines how deep the trough actually gets. Just my two cents:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... tcomp.html

[Ivanhater]

The Yucatan tends to throw some center relocation. Cindy 05 comes to mind....forecast to go to Texas but reformed over the Yucatan and the track shifted to Nola...

[Evil Jeremy]

96 hours, racing to the west:

[DESTRUCTION5]

EURO 24 hours:



EDIT: You want to cover this one Rock?

I dont see how this can be this far N in 24 hrs...Thats over 100 miles NW of current position?

[ROCK]

moving west or even South of west now and deepening.....I am going to have to fire Jeremy....

[Ivanhater]

I like the 500mb chart...

That trough is pretty strong off the east coast and backs the ridge down and scoots it to the west....either way you cut it, I think there could be some weak steering flow in the Gulf if this gets caught in the middle



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