ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[robbielyn]

That sure would put the squeeze play in over the Panhandle gradient and wind wise!!

I would love to see us get some good soaking rains but for some reason, Bay County (Panama City) just seems to have some kind of "rain shield" around it and when folks to our West and to our East are picking up fair amounts of Precip, we seem to be left high and dry.

I used to live there so left the "rain shield" behind. Sorry about that. So now live in Hernando county and bought another one for us lol. Its really a hurricane shield works great here.

Seriously, I'm going with gfs on this one just got that feeling. It's going against climatology stubbornly so for some reason.

[N2Storms]

[quote="robbielyn"][quote="N2Storms"][quote="Dean4Storms"]That sure would put the squeeze play in over the Panhandle gradient and wind wise!! [/quote]


I would love to see us get some good soaking rains but for some reason, Bay County (Panama City) just seems to have some kind of "rain shield" around it and when folks to our West and to our East are picking up fair amounts of Precip, we seem to be left high and dry.[/quote]
I used to live there so left the "rain shield" behind. Sorry about that. So now live in Hernando county and bought another one for us lol. Its really a hurricane shield works great here.

Seriously, I'm going with gfs on this one just got that feeling. It's going against climatology stubbornly so for some reason.[/quote]



I'm really torn but regardless of which way it goes I think it's going be more of rain event than anything else...maybe a strong, but sheared TS. As far as the "rain shield" goes...it's just uncanny how that works here...a couple of weeks ago when Pensacola / Mobile were inundated with rain, we received just a little over an inch...even to the east of us they were getting 3-4 inch totals. I'm probably exaggerating a tad but you get my drift.

[tolakram]

12Z CMC and GFS. 72H and landfall hour

[ROCK]

that is 5 runs in a row for the CMC!! wow

[PTrackerLA]

Wow 12z CMC continues to crush the Houston area. Strongest solution yet as well.

[Hurricane Andrew]

The cmc and GGEM are the same, right?

[vaffie]

Wow 12z CMC continues to crush the Houston area. Strongest solution yet as well.

Seriously, ouch. I think the reason it is stronger on this run is that it doesn't get so close to New Orleans this time. It stays offshore longer and further south, presumably where the shear is weaker.

[Portastorm]

I'm just wondering here. Is it possible the TC misses the ridge and the trough and heads due north?

As the pro mets (and educated non-mets) have indicated, anyone from the northeastern Gulf coast of Mexico to Florida is "in play" right now.

[ROCK]

Wow 12z CMC continues to crush the Houston area. Strongest solution yet as well.

yep deepens in the WGOM....I give it props to sticking to its guns...if the EURO is similar then we really have to start taking the CMC more seriously....it was upgraded last year after all...

[Aric Dunn]

I see clouds moving SW near the NE YP, just left of some persistent convection. Perhaps this is the start of something.



Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

yeah you nailed it well a little farther east by about 50 miles. its quite apparent something is trying. will it end up being another vort is the question. it needs convection.

[psyclone]

That sure would put the squeeze play in over the Panhandle gradient and wind wise!!

I would love to see us get some good soaking rains but for some reason, Bay County (Panama City) just seems to have some kind of "rain shield" around it and when folks to our West and to our East are picking up fair amounts of Precip, we seem to be left high and dry.

I used to live there so left the "rain shield" behind. Sorry about that. So now live in Hernando county and bought another one for us lol. Its really a hurricane shield works great here.

Seriously, I'm going with gfs on this one just got that feeling. It's going against climatology stubbornly so for some reason.

if you check TC climo you'll see that a june storm heading north or northeast from the yucatan region is very much within the realm of climo. it becomes a more rare event for that trajectory to happen in july. Of course i have no clue if that will happen in this case or if this thing will even form but at this point the model consensus is against the north/northeast track.

[HouTXmetro]

Omg! at that CMC run. Houston we have a problem. I'm amazed at how this potential Debbie has the models in disarray.

Sent from my PC36100 using Tapatalk 2

[floridasun78]

so all storms over Yucatan channel will move over south fl?

[vaffie]

if the EURO is similar then we really have to start taking the CMC more seriously....it was upgraded last year after all...

They made a lot of improvements, true, I've been reading about it. Compared to last year they've increased the amount of raw data that goes into it by 120%, they have increased Tropical Atlantic Ocean region resolution by a lot, now they input water temperature data down to 0.2 degree resolution, they've doubled the amount of satellite data incorporated, etc. Will be interesting to see what happens.

[Portastorm]

The cmc and GGEM are the same, right?

Yes, correct.

[South Texas Storms]

More GFS ensemles are taking this to Texas on the 12z run.
From Larry Cosgrove's Facebook: "Uh-oh....GFS ensemble series strongly suggests that what becomes Debby will miss frontal structure and stay in Gulf, then merge with second front over Houston TX vicinity on Thursday with track into S AR."

[Houstonia]

I'm just wondering here. Is it possible the TC misses the ridge and the trough and heads due north?

As the pro mets (and educated non-mets) have indicated, anyone from the northeastern Gulf coast of Mexico to Florida is "in play" right now.

I'm a little confused as the Harris County Flood Control met says this:

Tropical cyclone formation increasingly likely in the Gulf of Mexico.
Residents along the US Gulf coast should closely monitor the progress of this system.
(Nothing about only the northeastern GOM)

The National Hurricane Center says this:

INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE UNITED
STATES GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

(nothing about only the Northeastern GOM)

So, I am respectfully confused about your reply regarding Northeastern GOM to Florida.

[Hurricane Andrew]

0z HWRF at 93 and 126 hrs -

http://i836.photobucket.com/albums/zz29 ... 200_32.png

http://i836.photobucket.com/albums/zz29 ... 200_43.png

Can I have a link to these?

[Tireman4]

I cannot speak for Porta, but nothing is a done deal. Everyone in the Gulf should stay prepared for anything. The models are still having a hard time with whatever is out there.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[galvestontx]

More GFS ensemles are taking this to Texas on the 12z run.
From Larry Cosgrove's Facebook: "Uh-oh....GFS ensemble series strongly suggests that what becomes Debby will miss frontal structure and stay in Gulf, then merge with second front over Houston TX vicinity on Thursday with track into S AR."

nooooo we dont need this. please no