ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Dave]

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-035

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 23/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 23/1615Z
D. 25.5N 888.5W
E. 23/1715Z TO 23/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71 --
A. 24/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0204A CYCLONE
C. 24/1015Z
D. 27.1N 88.5W
E. 24/1100Z TO 24/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
3. REMARK: LOW LEVEL INVEST FOR 22/1800Z CANCELED
BY NHC AT 22/1230Z.

[Ptarmigan]

Off topic does anyone remember the size of hurricane Gilbert?

Gilbert was quite large.

It had a radius of outer closed isobar (ROCI) of 555 nautical miles (nm)! It is the largest in terms of ROCI for Atlantic from data going back to 1988. In terms of tropical storm force winds, it extended up to 250 nm. Hurricane force winds extending as much as 150 nm.

Code: Select all

AL0888 GILBERT   090818 1988 12.0  54.0  25 1008 -99 -99 1004 180   0  0  0  0   0  0  0  0   0  0  0  0 *
AL0888 GILBERT   090900 1988 12.7  55.6  25 1007 -99 -99 1008 135   0  0  0  0   0  0  0  0   0  0  0  0 *
AL0888 GILBERT   090906 1988 13.3  57.1  30 1006 -99 -99 1008 270   0  0  0  0   0  0  0  0   0  0  0  0 *
AL0888 GILBERT   090912 1988 14.0  58.6  30 1005 -99 -99 1008  90   0  0  0  0   0  0  0  0   0  0  0  0 *
AL0888 GILBERT   090918 1988 14.5  60.1  35 1004 -99 -99 1008 200 -99-99-99-99   0  0  0  0   0  0  0  0 *
AL0888 GILBERT   091000 1988 14.8  61.5  40 1002 -99 -99 1008 295 -99-99-99-99   0  0  0  0   0  0  0  0 *
AL0888 GILBERT   091006 1988 15.0  62.8  45  998 -99 -99 1008 330  50 50 50 50   0  0  0  0   0  0  0  0 *
AL0888 GILBERT   091012 1988 15.3  64.1  50  995 -99 -99 1008 180 150100 75 75 100 75 35 35   0  0  0  0 *
AL0888 GILBERT   091018 1988 15.7  65.4  55  992  47 -99 1008 240 150150 75 75 100100 25 35   0  0  0  0 *
AL0888 GILBERT   091100 1988 15.9  66.8  65  989  43 -99 1008 270 200200100100 100100 35 35  25 25  0 25 *
AL0888 GILBERT   091106 1988 16.2  68.0  80  982  40  30 1008 250 200200100125 150150 75100 125125 25 75 *
AL0888 GILBERT   091112 1988 16.1  69.5  95  975  37 -99 1008 260 200200100125 150150 75100 125125 25 75 *
AL0888 GILBERT   091118 1988 16.2  70.7 100  970  34  40 1008 345 200200100125 150150 75100 125125 25 75 *
AL0888 GILBERT   091200 1988 16.8  72.0 105  964  31  40 1008 290 200100100250 150 75 75150  75 25 25 75 *
AL0888 GILBERT   091206 1988 17.3  73.7 110  962  28  35 1008 275 200200200250 150 75 75150  75 25 25 75 *
AL0888 GILBERT   091212 1988 17.6  75.3 110  960  26  30 1012 555 250150150250 150 75 75150  75 25 25 75 *
AL0888 GILBERT   091218 1988 17.9  76.9 110  960  23 -99 1008 375 250150150250 150 75 75150  75 25 25 75 *
AL0888 GILBERT   091300 1988 18.2  78.5 110  960  22  12 1008 460 250100 75250 150 75 50150  25 25 25 25 *
AL0888 GILBERT   091306 1988 18.5  79.7 115  952  19  15 1008 300 250200200250 150100100150  50 50 50 75 *
AL0888 GILBERT   091312 1988 18.8  81.1 125  934  17  13 1008 330 250200200250 150100100150  50 50 50 75 *
AL0888 GILBERT   091318 1988 19.4  82.5 140  905  16   9 1008 390 250200200250 150100100150  75 50 50 75 *
AL0888 GILBERT   091400 1988 19.7  83.8 160  888 -99   8 1008 510 250150150250 150100100150  75 50 50 75 *
AL0888 GILBERT   091406 1988 19.9  85.3 155  889 -99   8 1008 460 250150150250 150100100150 100 50 50100 *
AL0888 GILBERT   091412 1988 20.4  86.5 145  892 -99   8 1008 360 250200150250 150100100150 100 50 50100 *
AL0888 GILBERT   091418 1988 20.9  87.8 130  925  72 -99 1008 425 250150200250 150100100150 100 50 50100 *
AL0888 GILBERT   091500 1988 21.3  89.5 100  944  56  12 1008 520 250150100250 125 75 75150  75 25 25100 *
AL0888 GILBERT   091506 1988 21.6  90.7  90  949  45  12 1008 480 250150100250 125 75 75150  75 25 25100 *
AL0888 GILBERT   091512 1988 21.9  91.7  85  950  42 -99 1008 395 250200200250 150100100150 125 75 75125 *
AL0888 GILBERT   091518 1988 22.1  92.8  90  950  35 -99 1004 320 250200250250 200150150200 125100100125 *
AL0888 GILBERT   091600 1988 22.5  93.8 100  949  32 -99 1000 200 250200250250 200150150200 125100100125 *
AL0888 GILBERT   091606 1988 22.9  94.8 110  946  29  12 1008 410 250200250250 200150150200 125100100125 *
AL0888 GILBERT   091612 1988 23.7  95.9 115  948  27  19 1008 365 250200200250 200150150200 125100100125 *
AL0888 GILBERT   091618 1988 23.9  97.0 115  950  25 -99 1008 400 250200200250 200150100100 150150 50 50 *
AL0888 GILBERT   091700 1988 24.4  98.2  80  964 -99  20 1008 395 250200200250 150125 75 75 100100 25 25 *
AL0888 GILBERT   091706 1988 24.8  99.3  50  988 -99 -99 1008 290 -99-99-99-99 -99-99-99-99   0  0  0  0 *
AL0888 GILBERT   091712 1988 25.0 100.5  35  996 -99 -99 1008 365 -99-99-99-99   0  0  0  0   0  0  0  0 *
AL0888 GILBERT   091718 1988 25.4 101.9  30 1000 -99 -99  -99 -99   0  0  0  0   0  0  0  0   0  0  0  0 *
AL0888 GILBERT   091800 1988 26.0 103.2  30 1002 -99 -99  -99 -99   0  0  0  0   0  0  0  0   0  0  0  0 *
AL0888 GILBERT   091806 1988 27.6 103.7  30 1004 -99 -99  -99 -99   0  0  0  0   0  0  0  0   0  0  0  0 *
AL0888 GILBERT   091812 1988 29.3 102.6  25 1003 -99 -99  -99 -99   0  0  0  0   0  0  0  0   0  0  0  0 *
AL0888 GILBERT   091818 1988 31.5 101.3  25 1003 -99 -99  -99 -99   0  0  0  0   0  0  0  0   0  0  0  0 *
AL0888 GILBERT   091900 1988 33.2  99.7  25 1002 -99 -99  -99 -99   0  0  0  0   0  0  0  0   0  0  0  0 *
AL0888 GILBERT   091906 1988 35.8  97.7  25 1001 -99 -99  -99 -99   0  0  0  0   0  0  0  0   0  0  0  0 *
AL0888 GILBERT   091912 1988 37.7  93.2  25  999 -99 -99  -99 -99   0  0  0  0   0  0  0  0   0  0  0  0 *
AL0888 GILBERT   091918 1988 40.2  89.9  25  998 -99 -99  -99 -99   0  0  0  0   0  0  0  0   0  0  0  0 E
AL0888 GILBERT   092000 1988 43.4  86.5  25  995 -99 -99  -99 -99   0  0  0  0   0  0  0  0   0  0  0  0 E

ftp://rammftp.cira.colostate.edu/demari ... k_atlc.txt

Read Me
ftp://rammftp.cira.colostate.edu/demari ... readme.txt

[Dave]

REMARK: LOW LEVEL INVEST FOR 22/1800Z CANCELED
BY NHC AT 22/1230Z

New Schedule (TCPOD) posted as of a little while ago:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=112982

[Ptarmigan]

I got a feeling this is going to have a large windfield due to the size.....like a WPAC system..

Same here. Tropical Storm Frances (1998) was quite large. It had tropical storm force winds extending up to 300 nautical miles! Also, it is early in the season.

[hurricanefloyd5]

why was recon canceled for

[senorpepr]

why was recon canceled for

It's clearly not a tropical cyclone.

[tolakram]

why was recon canceled for

There's a broad low pressure area but no tight LLC yet, so nothing to really get a fix on. IMO

[Hurricaneman]

why was recon canceled for

there is little to no convection where the low is analyzed

[Aric Dunn]

Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

I'm watching the areas indicated on the image below. I think convection building and any signs of banding will be the first indicator of organization.




Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

There are some signs of the happening. dont have time to make an image but will in a little bit. but your circle is on top of low level cloud lines that have developed and are parallel to each other and are rotating. its the not center but are essentially point to a developing low NE of YP

[Rgv20]

The center of the gulf through day 7 ... lol

Yeah I had to re-read that part lol....To be fair that was yesterdays call.

[adam0983]

I know this is a little of topic. Does anyone see any tropical formation around the first weekend of July?

[tailgater]

Question of the day. How many vorticies( eddies) can you find? I think I see another one trying to form north of the current plotted one @ 25.8N 89.8 W

[tolakram]

Oceansat - 2 is apparently a new tool?

http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/data ... ATData.php

From jeff masters blog entry this morning.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2128

[vaffie]

Oceansat - 2 is apparently a new tool?

http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/data ... ATData.php

Interesting--a 35 knot + reading in the NW Caribbean. That combined with the ship reports of 30 knots mean that it may skip the tropical depression step by the time it forms later today, in my opinion. Considering that that scan was two hours ago and it's looking much better in the past hour, it might be a hurricane tomorrow.

[vaffie]

I think this storm is going to surprise everyone at how fast it turns into a major hurricane. Look at the moisture stream behind it from the Pacific and southern Caribbean, it's sitting over the Loop current right now--the hottest water in the Atlantic basin, and its strong shear is starting to convert into a very favorable upper level environment. Be prepared to be surprised when you wake up tomorrow morning at its impressiveness.

The post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Air Force Met]

I think this storm is going to surprise everyone at how fast it turns into a major hurricane. Look at the moisture stream behind it from the Pacific and southern Caribbean, it's sitting over the Loop current right now--the hottest water in the Atlantic basin, and its strong shear is starting to convert into a very favorable upper level environment. Be prepared to be surprised when you wake up tomorrow morning at its impressiveness.

I'll be prepared to not hold my breath...

[ROCK]

I am not to keen on development any time soon looking at SAT loops....I see all kinds of eddies rotating around...there is no one area to watch. HH didnt fly so all we can do is look at obs and SAT for today. Interesting since it aint that far of a flight, I dont see why they wouldnt just for the fun of it.... Its just gas...

[ROCK]

I think this storm is going to surprise everyone at how fast it turns into a major hurricane. Look at the moisture stream behind it from the Pacific and southern Caribbean, it's sitting over the Loop current right now--the hottest water in the Atlantic basin, and its strong shear is starting to convert into a very favorable upper level environment. Be prepared to be surprised when you wake up tomorrow morning at its impressiveness.

I'll be prepared to not hold my breath...

AFM- long time since I seen you around. Welcome back...

and you moved to Angleton.....traitor!

[Riptide]

I think this storm is going to surprise everyone at how fast it turns into a major hurricane. Look at the moisture stream behind it from the Pacific and southern Caribbean, it's sitting over the Loop current right now--the hottest water in the Atlantic basin, and its strong shear is starting to convert into a very favorable upper level environment. Be prepared to be surprised when you wake up tomorrow morning at its impressiveness.

I want to agree with you, it's definitely "charging the lasers" so to speak.

[jlauderdal]

I think this storm is going to surprise everyone at how fast it turns into a major hurricane. Look at the moisture stream behind it from the Pacific and southern Caribbean, it's sitting over the Loop current right now--the hottest water in the Atlantic basin, and its strong shear is starting to convert into a very favorable upper level environment. Be prepared to be surprised when you wake up tomorrow morning at its impressiveness.

I'll be prepared to not hold my breath...

AFM- long time since I seen you around. Welcome back...

and you moved to Angleton.....traitor!

if he hangs around i am going to have to ask him to post one of his nifty hand written weather charts, those have been extremely informative in past years