ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[trave2]

The "center" LLC moved east south east last night over Yucatan and is currently under that huge ball of convection of Cozumel. IMO

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It really never had an LLC to begin with, it's been broad to begin with with several smaller vorticities going around.

a LLC LOw level Circulation is a vorticy
But what I was saying was that the "main one" the one I thgink is going to win out

[KatDaddy]

A huge very slow moving system has plenty of time to develop. Going to be interesting next week.

[northjaxpro]

is it safe to say that there is a lot of uncertainty regarding this storm?

Geez, no kidding

96L is a very disorganized system. It is going to take well into this upcoming weekend before we see this system consolidate in my view. I am also beginning to think that a LLC may try to get tucked under the deep convection in the Yucatan Channel region or west of thw western tip of Cuba. Hopefully we will get some idea when Recon gets in there a bit later.

[AHS2011]

The mimic is going to be no help right now. The circulation is so huge that its almost takes up the entire GOM...

This reminds of Hurricane Alex back in 2010. All Alex took was a few hundred miles of the Bay of Campeche and 2 days (correct me if I'm wrong, may have been longer than 2 days), and it became a 110 MPH storm right before landfall.

[ROCK]

A huge very slow moving system has plenty of time to develop. Going to be interesting next week.

I need to go to DT to work...I will let you guys figure out this vort map...I am at a loss right now...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[trave2]

if you look at the mimic the gulf is one big circulation but there is a smaller circulation in yucatan channel that looks to be getting pulled northward, the mimic corisponds to the visable sat image of counter clockwise low level flow, look at the low level clouds in the gulf

[NDG]

Well, so far hd visible sat loop is not showing me that a new COC is developing closer to the Yucatan channel.
This is still very broad with several vorticities circulating around. This is far from being upgraded and I think that if the recon is not canceled they will not find a well defined LLC to get it upgraded.
Why these monsoonal lows give us so much problems, lol.
I am done with this system this morning, need to get to work.

[Sanibel]

Impressive persistent black IR cold tops.

[ROCK]

06Z- NOGAPS.....STX....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[AHS2011]

Once Debby forms, I would like to see how wide the cone of uncertainty is.

[Aric Dunn]

just keep looking towards the convection in large circs that will be the area to watch. Its going to take time still

[adam0983]

Invest 96L needs a strong trough to pull the storm towards Florida. I think until Invest 96L is upgraded to a tropical depression we can't get handle on the track. Invest 96L is looking very impressive this morning. I would say this storm will be more a central gulf storm towards texas. Lets hope that it it falls apart and affects no one.

[canes04]

Aric,

I'm watching the area off the NE tip of the Yucatan. This could get real interesting today.
can't wait for recon!

[Aric Dunn]

But I would put money on something coming out of the north side of that convection the leftover mid circ that developed last night is still around there and could help consolidate a llc.

[Air Force Met]

Once Debby forms, I would like to see how wide the cone of uncertainty is.

The cone of uncertainty is always the same width...the NHC does not modify it for any given storm or forecast. All the cone is is an error probability circle...meaning 2/3 of the time the track at a given time will be in that circle.

IN other words, 2/3 the error circle for the 72 hr forecast track is 144 miles. That means 2/3 of the time the NHC track will hit in that circle in 72 hrs...but it also means 1/3 of the time they are wrong. You connect ALL the valid times and their circles together...and you get the cone.

There is nothing magical or manipulated about the cone. It's pure statistical error and each cone width is the same...regardless of storm or how well behaved.

[Aric Dunn]

I would make a map to show the general area but the NHC already does that for us. notice its not centered in the central gulf north of the yucatan. its located surrounding most of the deep convection.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[Sanibel]

The deep convection is probably the indicator of the Low center. From the looks of it this thing is just waiting for the shear to relax and...

[tailgater]

Pressure continues to drop all over the GOM it's gonna take some time or T-storms near the broad center before it pops. That large feeder band in the NW Caribbean, should help as draws nearer.

[Aric Dunn]

So all in all until convection build over a larger area within the large gyro nothing will ever consolidate. SO the gfs pulling some pieces of energy off as the trough approaches is not out of the question since its so broad.

[tolakram]

GFS has the first well defined center at the 21 hour mark.



The euro doesn't have anything well defined until 72 hours, though this may be a resolution issue.