ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[robbielyn]

Hi. Can someone please post the link for swfmd spaghetti link? I hit on the link above but it is not doing anything. I would like to bookmark it. Thanks

[tolakram]

First visible



visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[NDG]

I am starting to come to the conclusion that due to the lack of convection off the NW tip of the Yucatan P is that what we still have is a broad area of low pressure inland over the north central of the Peninsula, elongated W to E.

Edit: That's if we don't have a new COC close to Cancun near the Yucatan Channel.

[NDG]

Cancun's northerly winds continue, going against that the COC is to their west.

Code: Select all

Conditions at:  MMUN (CANCUN , MX) observed 1143 UTC 22 June 2012 
Temperature:  23.0°C (73°F) 
Dewpoint:  23.0°C (73°F) [RH = 100%] 
Pressure (altimeter):  29.72 inches Hg (1006.5 mb)
[Sea-level pressure: 1007.0 mb] 
Winds:  from the NNW (330 degrees) at 6 MPH (5 knots; 2.6 m/s) 
Visibility:  4 miles (6 km) 
Ceiling:  900 feet AGL 
Clouds:  broken clouds at 900 feet AGL
broken clouds at 7000 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 20000 feet AGL 
Weather:  RA  (rain) 


[hurricanefloyd5]

the broad low looks to be almost due north of extreme western Cuba

[KWT]

Models are a mess, not really surprising at the moment given the system itself is an unorganised mess. They do all seem to agree on something developing though so its worth keeping a steady eye on it!

[KWT]

Well upto 70% now and with pretty much all the models agreeing on development we may well have our 4 system of the season before we've even left June, amazing really!

Track is very much up in the air still from the looks of things...

[weatherwindow]

I enjoy spending my summers tracking storms with you guys, but I gotta say... This little guy has piss-poor timing. I live on the mid-tx coast, and will be flying out of Houston on the 30th to vaca in Key West. Boo.....

So are you saying you want to stay in Houston to witness the storm or that your vacation plans are ruined?

I do love tracking storms..... But I love KW just a bit more.

Basically i hate these couple of days of not knowing where she's going, trying to decide if we need to modify our plans.... But once LLC forms I'll feel better, cause then there won't be "as much" uncertainty.

smart girl, welcome to cayo hueso....and you should have some stellar weather down here..back on topic...given the fairly low pressures at the buoys and ship reps, a migration/reformation of the incipient center to the ENE would a realistic possibility and would tend to lend credence to florida as the ultimate destination of 96L/Debby

[tolakram]

Based on this very short 3 frame visible loop, CoC looks to be where analyzed, just north of the YP.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=3

[tolakram]

Google: spaghetti model plots

I came up with a bunch of various links, including this: http://spaghettimodels.com/

Direct link: http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al962012.png

I'm sure there are others, but not sure which is the best.

[trave2]

Looking at where the models initiate the storm the gfs is the closest to where I think the LLC is right now, just off Yucatan in channel. If you look at the steering currents and flow I see this going due north or east. The global models are not getting a grip on this storm yet. The LLC looks to have moved southeast over night across the yucatan and is getting well defined in the channel as we speak. And whats with this talk about size, it's not that big....yet?

Also if you look at the models the gfs is the only one that shows multiple vorticies circuling each other and the "main" LLc getting pulled north by the overall counter clockwise spin taking place right now in the gulf.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[NDG]

Based on this very short 3 frame visible loop, CoC looks to be where analyzed, just north of the YP.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=3

Yeah, I was just looking at that. If so we have a very disorganized system this morning. Nothing is going to happen today and any upgrade will not be for another 24-48 hrs.

[Rgv20]

Thru 72hrs the 0zUKMET and ECMWF are in excellent agreement....Even the normally conservative UKMET has a 1000mb low, looks like at the very least by this weekend we are going to have a TD in the Central Gulf.

[trave2]

The "center" LLC moved east south east last night over Yucatan and is currently under that huge ball of convection of Cozumel. IMO

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[NDG]

The "center" LLC moved east south east last night over Yucatan and is currently under that huge ball of convection of Cozumel. IMO

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

It really never had an LLC to begin with, it's been broad to begin with with several smaller vorticities going around.

[AHS2011]

is it safe to say that there is a lot of uncertainty regarding this storm?

[tolakram]

MIMIC-TPW still shows circulation in the middle of the gulf.

saved image



source: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

[ROCK]

yeah RGV....hard to go against the big boys. I left the GFS out...

the 06z GFS still wants to send this east after last nights run where it stalled in the GOM for 5 days.....

[NDG]

They did moved the best track closer to 88W, at 06z they had it at 89.5W

Code: Select all

Best Track Position and Intensity as of:

Friday, June 22, 2012 12:00 Z

Location at the time:

133 statue miles (213 km) to the NW (315°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.

Wind (1 min. avg.):

25 knots (~29 mph | 13 m/s | 46 km/h)

Pressure:

1005 mb (29.68 inHg | 1005 hPa)

Coordinates:

22.5N 88.3W   


Edit: at 06z they had it at 88.5W, not 89.5W as I thought.

[ROCK]

The mimic is going to be no help right now. The circulation is so huge that its almost takes up the entire GOM...