ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

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vaffie
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#461 Postby vaffie » Fri Jun 22, 2012 12:50 am



Interesting, but not surprising. I've noticed in the past that GFDL almost never strengthens non-depressions. It has to have an organized center before the GFDL recognizes it and shows how much it will strengthen. I wouldn't expect it to show anything much for another run or two. But if you watch the map and use your imagination, the lines are showing you where the center is, it has the same theme, of moving it towards NO/Mobile, then drifting westward. We will see if it pans out.
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ROCK
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#462 Postby ROCK » Fri Jun 22, 2012 12:53 am

so much for waiting up for the GFDL.... :lol:


next up EURO in 7 minutes....this should be telling...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#463 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 22, 2012 12:54 am

00z HWRF.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#464 Postby Stratosphere747 » Fri Jun 22, 2012 12:55 am

0z HWRF at 93 and 126 hrs -

Image

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#465 Postby ROCK » Fri Jun 22, 2012 12:56 am

similar to the CMC run.....takes it north meets ridge before landfall and shunts it west
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#466 Postby ROCK » Fri Jun 22, 2012 12:56 am

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#467 Postby bella_may » Fri Jun 22, 2012 12:58 am

oops the one i looked at wasnt updated. sorry. funny thing is our local met told us at 10 to not worry about this because all the models had it going to florida :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#468 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Fri Jun 22, 2012 12:59 am

ROCK wrote:I got a feeling this is going to have a large windfield due to the size.....like a WPAC system..

Kind of like Alex from 2010?
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#469 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Jun 22, 2012 1:02 am

EURO running. 48 hours out, splitting lows again, somewhat east of the previous run:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#470 Postby ROCK » Fri Jun 22, 2012 1:03 am

here it comes! :lol: ...EURO at 24hrs...


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP024.gif
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boca
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#471 Postby boca » Fri Jun 22, 2012 1:04 am

I dont think this is going to to a Florida Peninsula problem anymore. That trough isn't strong enought to pick it up.Florida panhandle to Texas to watch more closely then Florida my reasoning is that high in the plains just might be strong enough to push this towards the La/TX area
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#472 Postby AJC3 » Fri Jun 22, 2012 1:06 am

vaffie wrote:
ROCK wrote:
vaffie wrote:Looking at the buoy data from the GOM, it seems that pressures are dropping at a fair rate (2.5 mb drop in the past 24 hours) and winds are rising quickly tonight. At this rate, by midday tomorrow the pressure will be sufficiently low enough to have continuous convection over the center and rapid strengthening will ensue.

Two buoys are as follows for instance:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... _label=CDT

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... _label=CDT




where are these located?


Middle of the Gulf, fairly far away. Unfortunately there are no buoys in the southern Gulf... :(



http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#473 Postby ROCK » Fri Jun 22, 2012 1:06 am

Evil I will let you post....the run....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#474 Postby boca » Fri Jun 22, 2012 1:08 am

After staring at this for 2 minutes it looks like 96L is in the Yucatan Channel I see the most rotation there.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-rb.html
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Evil Jeremy
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#475 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Jun 22, 2012 1:17 am

72 hours, consolidating in central Gulf:

Image

96 hours, not much change:

Image
Last edited by Evil Jeremy on Fri Jun 22, 2012 1:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#476 Postby bella_may » Fri Jun 22, 2012 1:18 am

oh my, i hope this doesnt follow the gfs
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#477 Postby Sambucol » Fri Jun 22, 2012 1:18 am


Where does it take in at?
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South Texas Storms
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#478 Postby South Texas Storms » Fri Jun 22, 2012 1:19 am

Looks like it misses the trough again this run. 96 hrs: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP096.gif
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boca
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#479 Postby boca » Fri Jun 22, 2012 1:20 am

96L is in the channel look

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-vis.html
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Evil Jeremy
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#480 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Jun 22, 2012 1:21 am

120 Hours, Texas bound:

Image
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