ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[South Texas Storms]

Where are you seeing the new run then?

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_fo ... 12_....jpg

That hasn't fully updated yet. It's just showing the end of last night's run. Check the timestamp.

[ROCK]

Where are you seeing the new run then?

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_fo ... 12_....jpg

That hasn't fully updated yet. It's just showing the end of last night's run. Check the timestamp.

check FSU again....destroys Galveston this time further up the coast

[ROCK]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[South Texas Storms]

0z CMC just finished updating. Rock looks like it's heading for you this run. Still consistent. What is this 4 runs showing this now?
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[vaffie]

That hasn't fully updated yet. It's just showing the end of last night's run. Check the timestamp.

I could be wrong, but it says Friday 6/22 0Z.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM CHRIS...LOCATED ABOUT 540 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED.
HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING ACROSS THE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES GULF
COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN

[vaffie]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2012062200&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Yikes, now I'm nervous. Looks stronger than previous runs too.

[ROCK]

yeah further up the coast....still though basically the same run....north up to NGOM then over west into Texas....

[vaffie]

Of interest to my fellow model-watchers. Looking forward to seeing what GFDL and HWRF say.

In a more immediate example of research supporting hurricane forecasting, NOAA this season [2012] is introducing enhancements to two of the computer models available to hurricane forecasters - the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) models. The HWRF model has been upgraded with a higher resolution and improved atmospheric physics. This latest version has demonstrated a 20 to 25 percent improvement in track forecasts and a 15 percent improvement in intensity forecasts relative to the previous version while also showing improvement in the representation of storm structure and size. Improvements to the GFDL model for 2012 include physics upgrades that are expected to reduce or eliminate a high bias in the model's intensity forecasts.

[ROCK]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2012062200&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Yikes, now I'm nervous. Looks stronger than previous runs too.

what's the mb of Debby on that run?...I think there is a map somewhere that can zoom in....

[SunnyThoughts]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2012062200&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Rakes the coastline from Mobile or so all the way to Texas. geeze

[bella_may]

Of interest to my fellow model-watchers. Looking forward to seeing what GFDL and HWRF say.

In a more immediate example of research supporting hurricane forecasting, NOAA this season [2012] is introducing enhancements to two of the computer models available to hurricane forecasters - the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) models. The HWRF model has been upgraded with a higher resolution and improved atmospheric physics. This latest version has demonstrated a 20 to 25 percent improvement in track forecasts and a 15 percent improvement in intensity forecasts relative to the previous version while also showing improvement in the representation of storm structure and size. Improvements to the GFDL model for 2012 include physics upgrades that are expected to reduce or eliminate a high bias in the model's intensity forecasts.

what are the links to those models? lol

[South Texas Storms]

When does the HWRF and GFDL update? In a few mins right?

[floridasun78]

it look like may pass close to keys and first forecast if center more to east and early today

[vaffie]

Of interest to my fellow model-watchers. Looking forward to seeing what GFDL and HWRF say.

In a more immediate example of research supporting hurricane forecasting, NOAA this season [2012] is introducing enhancements to two of the computer models available to hurricane forecasters - the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) models. The HWRF model has been upgraded with a higher resolution and improved atmospheric physics. This latest version has demonstrated a 20 to 25 percent improvement in track forecasts and a 15 percent improvement in intensity forecasts relative to the previous version while also showing improvement in the representation of storm structure and size. Improvements to the GFDL model for 2012 include physics upgrades that are expected to reduce or eliminate a high bias in the model's intensity forecasts.

what are the links to those models? lol

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[floridasun78]

other thing it could pass near west tip cuba too a bit to west of their

[boca]

Off topic does anyone remember the size of hurricane Gilbert?

[cycloneye]

00z GFDL has anything significant.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[PTrackerLA]

Edit: cycloneye beat me to it. 00z GFDL says nothing to worry about. Don't think I'll stay up for Euro. Head is spinning after tonights models .

[bella_may]

HWRF looks like a landfall around the alabama/florida border before it shifts to the NE