ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Means the gfs has absolutely no idea what is going on. Doesn't get up nor pushed west by building high so just keeps it in same spot for days.

Quite the contrary - what the solution is showing is that the circulation consolidates far enough east that it gets trapped in the col region between the ridge to the NW and the trough axis to the NE. Now, whether that is realistic or not - that's another matter, but to say the model "has absolutely no idea" isn't really the case.

Thanks for the explanation there ajc, appreciate it. I do think its pretty unrealistic though.

[Hurricaneman]

0Z NOGAPS say Brownsville....sort of....


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

The last couple NOGAPS runs have been just bizarre, with two storms spinning around each other like that. It's just not plausible. I don't know what to make of it.

Its wierd, but not as wierd as the current GFS model

[bella_may]

0zNOGAPS has it on top of Brownsville by Tuesday Morning.

after making a direct hit around NO. this run makes about as much sense as the gfs

[ROCK]

Now let's wait for the first runs by GFDL/HWRF and CMC.But the most important one,the ECMWF.

those are the big boys I am waiting for!!

[bella_may]

Now let's wait for the first runs by GFDL/HWRF and CMC.But the most important one,the ECMWF.

those are the big boys I am waiting for!!

what time do those come out?

[vaffie]

What it implies I guess is that the high over the central states becomes strong enough at just the time that it's moving north to bounce it back out and send it to the west. It's plausible. I've seen it before. But it is more likely to stall and then drift west, I expect. Who knows. Steering currents are going to be very weak so it could do just about anything depending on the time of the day.

[cycloneye]

Now let's wait for the first runs by GFDL/HWRF and CMC.But the most important one,the ECMWF.

those are the big boys I am waiting for!!

what time do those come out?

CMC around 1 AM EDT.
GFDL/HWRF after 1:30 AM EDT.
ECMWF at 2 AM EDT.

[Hurricaneman]

Now let's wait for the first runs by GFDL/HWRF and CMC.But the most important one,the ECMWF.

those are the big boys I am waiting for!!

Wouldn't it be funny if the Euro did the same thing as the GFS, but I digress I think that the Euro will move it slowly towards Houston like the previous run

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Rgv20]

Now let's wait for the first runs by GFDL/HWRF and CMC.But the most important one,the ECMWF.

IIRC the GFDL/HWRF get their conditions outside the nest from the GFS....If that is true I'm going to be reluctant to pay them too much attention for now.

[boca]

So South Florida is off the hook for now.

[boca]

The model had an upgrade so just maybe the steering currents arent there.

[Hurricaneman]

So South Florida is off the hook for now.

not quite yet, I would wait 1 more day of model runs before the all clear

[ROCK]

after that GFS run I have officially ungraded the GFS

[ROCK]

Now let's wait for the first runs by GFDL/HWRF and CMC.But the most important one,the ECMWF.

those are the big boys I am waiting for!!

Wouldn't it be funny if the Euro did the same thing as the GFS, but I digress I think that the Euro will move it slowly towards Houston like the previous run

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I am thinking more south than that....

[NDG]

Don't forget that the 12z Euro basically stalled 96L between Sunday and Tuesday.
Future Debby to be will be moving into an area of weak steerings between the ridge in the southern Plains and the trough in the NE US.
The only thing that will finally get her moving if a ridge pushes into the GOM from the Caribbean to push her westward or if the trough digs in deeper and pulls her NE.

[floridasun78]

if low move more east will that track low more near sw fl? more rain for south fl

[boca]

Maybe S Florida can dry out and Texas can have Debbie as a tropical storm

[vaffie]

Looking at the buoy data from the GOM, it seems that pressures are dropping at a fair rate (2.5 mb drop in the past 24 hours) and winds are rising quickly tonight. At this rate, by midday tomorrow the pressure will be sufficiently low enough to have continuous convection over the center and rapid strengthening will ensue.

Two buoys are as follows for instance:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... _label=CDT

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... _label=CDT

[ROCK]

Looking at the buoy data from the GOM, it seems that pressures are dropping at a fair rate (2.5 mb drop in the past 24 hours) and winds are rising quickly tonight. At this rate, by midday tomorrow the pressure will be sufficiently low enough to have continuous convection over the center and rapid strengthening will ensue.

Two buoys are as follows for instance:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... _label=CDT

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... _label=CDT

where are these located?

[bella_may]

does anybody have a link of the cmc model? i cant seem to find it. thanks