ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

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SunnyThoughts
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#381 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Jun 21, 2012 11:17 pm

EmeraldCoast93 wrote:Yikes! that would put me in the right front quadrant for 48 hours! :double:


Yeah, would more than likely pump a LOT of rain into the panhandle for sure. Hopefully its just a sloppy mess sitting there for that long in one place. Too much rain is a disaster in and of itself...hopefully it heads to where people need the rain the most.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#382 Postby ROCK » Thu Jun 21, 2012 11:17 pm

144hr still sitting there....ok I am done watching it now....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#383 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Thu Jun 21, 2012 11:18 pm

Means the gfs has no clue what is going on. Trough doesn't pull it up and out and building high doesn't push it west. So good role gfs just keeps it stationary for a week lol
Last edited by CYCLONE MIKE on Thu Jun 21, 2012 11:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#384 Postby Rgv20 » Thu Jun 21, 2012 11:18 pm

Hopefully tonight's GFS Ensembles gives us something useful..
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#385 Postby southerngale » Thu Jun 21, 2012 11:20 pm

I could buy a stall, but sitting there for days and days and days seems unrealistic.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#386 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 21, 2012 11:21 pm

If GFS is right and stalls for many days,then upwelling becomes a factor.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#387 Postby Rgv20 » Thu Jun 21, 2012 11:21 pm

ROCK wrote:144hr still sitting there....ok I am done watching it now....


I quit watching it since 108hrs! lol

At least in the short term is somewhat in agreement with the Euro. Intensity wise I think the 0zGFS was very quick to ramp it up..
Last edited by Rgv20 on Thu Jun 21, 2012 11:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#388 Postby ROCK » Thu Jun 21, 2012 11:22 pm

I cant help it.....150 still in the same place.... :lol:
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#389 Postby bella_may » Thu Jun 21, 2012 11:23 pm

it appears to to brush the LA/MS/AL/FL coast for 5 days and then move back to the south or southest? weird :?: :double:
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#390 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Thu Jun 21, 2012 11:24 pm

Did someone feed bath salts to the GFS? If this verifies there will be major flooding on the gulf coast from torrential rain.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#391 Postby AJC3 » Thu Jun 21, 2012 11:26 pm

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:Means the gfs has absolutely no idea what is going on. Doesn't get up nor pushed west by building high so just keeps it in same spot for days. :roll:


Quite the contrary - what the solution is showing is that the circulation consolidates far enough east that it gets trapped in the col region between the ridge to the NW and the trough axis to the NE. Now, whether that is realistic or not - that's another matter, but to say the model "has absolutely no idea" isn't really the case.
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#392 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Jun 21, 2012 11:28 pm

bella_may wrote:it appears to to brush the LA/MS/AL/FL coast for 5 days and then move back to the south or southest? weird :?: :double:


The 0z GFS needs to go in the trash heap IMO, this run makes no sense

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#393 Postby Jagno » Thu Jun 21, 2012 11:29 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Did someone feed bath salts to the GFS? If this verifies there will be major flooding on the gulf coast from torrential rain.


Why? Does it get naked and eat a human?
Sorry, I just couldn't resist.

A GFS set up would have evacuations from Alabama to Brownsville. Crazy!
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#394 Postby EmeraldCoast93 » Thu Jun 21, 2012 11:29 pm

I'm really fascinated by what the GFS is outputting, but it would be truly devastating. I'm sure Pensacola residents don't want this considering almost 2 weeks ago they had 10-25+ inches of rain.

168 hrs. - Still in the same place, albeit weaker
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ROCK
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#395 Postby ROCK » Thu Jun 21, 2012 11:32 pm

0Z NOGAPS say Brownsville....sort of.... :lol:


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
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#396 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Thu Jun 21, 2012 11:32 pm

Current GFS would be a flood disaster for Pensacola on top of what they had a week ago... :eek:
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#397 Postby Rgv20 » Thu Jun 21, 2012 11:32 pm

0zNOGAPS has it on top of Brownsville by Tuesday Morning.

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#398 Postby wkwally » Thu Jun 21, 2012 11:33 pm

Can sure use the rain here in Brownsville From what I have been reading and looking at it seems as if we are still in this. I will watch more closley on Sat. see what the jet will do
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#399 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 21, 2012 11:34 pm

Now let's wait for the first runs by GFDL/HWRF and CMC.But the most important one,the ECMWF.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#400 Postby vaffie » Thu Jun 21, 2012 11:34 pm

ROCK wrote:0Z NOGAPS say Brownsville....sort of.... :lol:


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical


The last couple NOGAPS runs have been just bizarre, with two storms spinning around each other like that. It's just not plausible. I don't know what to make of it.
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