ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Javlin]

I disagree....I think that is the MLC as the cloud tops have warmed. The COC is inland and has been for most of today IMO....

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

But how long can a COC survive overland before another LP takes over?There is a rotation at 86'/22' could be MLC(?) I have to give it that but being over water all day/night now and the other over land all night one has to ask which prevails?water.

[Jevo]

Obs indicate a very broad low center, perhaps 150 miles across with a lobe near the Yucatan and another off to the NNE a good ways. Sort of like Frances of 1998.

A Frances type storm would make for a nice drought buster for our friends in Texas

[Clint_TX]

Obs indicate a very broad low center, perhaps 150 miles across with a lobe near the Yucatan and another off to the NNE a good ways. Sort of like Frances of 1998.

Possible hybrid?

[ozonepete]

It's consolidating around 22.5N 85.5W

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[crimi481]

ULL 's rule. They are everywhere
Like a chipper shedder

[ozonepete]

Did you mean LLC?

[ROCK]

Obs indicate a very broad low center, perhaps 150 miles across with a lobe near the Yucatan and another off to the NNE a good ways. Sort of like Frances of 1998.

ahh....thanks WXMN57!! I knew I wasnt seeing things...

[Aric Dunn]

only timr will tell. just some rotational dynamics ... will see but i dont se much north of the yucatsn

[Ntxw]

I do wonder if the models are seeing this front that supposed to stall out and thus steering 96L away at a quick pace like that to the NE.

The front is associated with the trough . The models (particularly Euro/CMC) are projecting that the ridge out west will take over and push the trough east.

[crimi481]

No ULL
Too much shear still - some dry air

[NDG]

The much trusted TVCA/TVCN concensus model by the NHC:

[Ivanhater]

Just reviewing the Euro and Canadian from this afternoon....they are so close to getting picked up it is not even funny. Just where the center consolidates and how far north she gets is crucial....what a tough forecast.

[ROCK]

Low level convergence is not impressive attm but it is where the best track is....

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

['CaneFreak]

Actually the shear is letting up and dry air is becoming less and less of an issue

No ULL
Too much shear still - some dry air

[jeff]

only timr will tell. just some rotational dynamics ... will see but i dont se much north of the yucatsn

The circulation is ill defined and spans upwards of 150 miles as stated by wxman. NHC will track the broad center and not the vorticity centers that can/will rotate around the main broad center. Again this is very much like a large monsoon trough/depression...large and sprawling....it will take time to consolidate.

Things are actually playing out to some degree much like the models showed last week with a weak and broad low ejecting out of MX into the BOC (the broad low as done just that, but slightly more to the north and east than the models were showing last week). That slight NE ejection seems to have been the starting point of the differences between the models with respect to FL or the W Gulf. Ensemble means continue to favor the western Gulf with the GFS ensembles more split into the two camps. Hopefully some of this will clear up before NHC has to put out a 5 day forecast...luckily they have slow motion on their side.

['CaneFreak]

However, highest vorticity resides to the northeast

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

Low level convergence is not impressive attm but it is where the best track is....

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[Hurricaneman]

If this somehow relocates 200 miles or more farther east, would that possibly make the up and out scenerio that the GFS shows more likely

[Rgv20]

The much trusted TVCA/TVCN concensus model by the NHC:

http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... z-tvca.jpg

Looks like they only used the GFS.....New runs of the UKMET and ECMWF make a left turn.

[ozonepete]

If this somehow relocates 200 miles or more farther east, would that possibly make the up and out scenerio that the GFS shows more likely

Sure it would. But there's no proof of that at all yet. It's all just speculation until surface obs and whatever satelliite data we have starts consolidating.

[cycloneye]

jeff, in your estimation,how strong this system may get?