ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[CrazyC83]

Spaghetti plot? More like spaghetti bowl!

Would a GulfStream flight help out with the track? Since there is zero confidence now...

[Aric Dunn]

keep paying attentiin ne of the yucatan ... it will consolidate with the convection.

[StormingB81]

So what do you know..I just come back from Okinawa...first thing I do..looking to see what this system does..lol

[northjaxpro]

keep paying attentiin ne of the yucatan ... it will consolidate with the convection.

By this Aric are you seeing a relocation of the center under the deepest convection?

[Rgv20]

I took a look at the 12zECMWF&CMC Ensemble Means and they favor a western gulf coast storm.


First of all this is the 12zCMC Ensemble Means Forecast Valid for Tuesday Morning, all I have to say is WOW....The timing of this possible TC is almost identical as to this morning 12zUKMET. IMO this may be a little to fast..



12zECMWF Ensemble Means favor a TC due east of Brownsville by Wednesday Morning, which is just to the WSW of the Operational Run of the ECMWF. If the ECMWF is going to keep the TC in Western GOM in future runs IMO it will trend to the South of this morning run.

[bamajammer4eva]

Tallahassee NWS just posted this graphic on their homepage saying that this should move West and away from Florida. They also put the models on there showing the 3 most reliable models moving it west with only 1 lonely model showing a FL Hit.

[CrazyC83]

There is that huge trough up there...it is going to miss? or could it pick it up?

[Zanthe]

There is that huge trough up there...it is going to miss? or could it pick it up?

That is the quadrillion dollar question.

[HouTXmetro]

Convection is really waning. Would be something if things went poof tonight. LOL

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Got home from work to finally find an invest. What a surprise. Have noticed most models are starting to swing back more west with what if anything develops. Not buying into it yet as come tomorrow they could just as easily swing back east. The GFS as usual seems to be over estimating the strength of the east coast trof. This is not some freak hurricane Charley scenario. Only way Florida would be a sure bet to get a visit from this is it explodes overnight into tomorrow and soory to say is not going to happen.

And as always this is my personal opinion not an official forecast. Just tracking these things for way to many years.

[robbielyn]

As it should climatologically speaking this time of year. (westward). This in response to models from tallahasse not the post above me.

[ozonepete]

keep paying attentiin ne of the yucatan ... it will consolidate with the convection.

By this Aric are you seeing a relocation of the center under the deepest convection?

I always wind up saying it each new season and throughout the season: If you want to know where the COC, Center Of Circulation will wind up in a developing system, follow what Aric says. Nobody has a better eye for it. Having followed the way he looks at it and tried to get the same "eye" for it over the years, I totally agree that a center is slowly consolidating just northeast of the northeast tip of the Yucatan and due west of western Cuba. Watch the loops and you can see it.

[midnight8]

Local TV station here in Beaumont(KBMT-12) is playing up the possibility of a SE Texas landfall.

[MississippiHurricane]

I do wonder if the models are seeing this front that supposed to stall out and thus steering 96L away at a quick pace like that to the NE.

[Zanthe]

Convection is really waning. Would be something if things went poof tonight. LOL

I don't think it will be going poof. Died down for now at least...but flared up over land.

[Hurricaneman]

keep paying attentiin ne of the yucatan ... it will consolidate with the convection.

By this Aric are you seeing a relocation of the center under the deepest convection?

I always wind up saying it each new season and throughout the season: If you want to know where the COC, Center Of Circulation will wind up in a developing system, follow what Aric says. Nobody has a better eye for it. Having followed the way he looks at it and tried to get the same "eye" for it over the years, I totally agree that a center is slowly consolidating just northeast of the northeast tip of the Yucatan and due west of western Cuba. Watch the loops and you can see it.

This could change the outcome of the models, because they would be 200+ miles west if this relocation actually happens which would add another factor into the equation


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[ROCK]

I disagree....I think that is the MLC as the cloud tops have warmed. The COC is inland and has been for most of today IMO....

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

[Jevo]

I do so love it when news stations predict landfall locations for storms that haven't formed yet. But with that being said I do believe that 96L does deserve the seal.

[northjaxpro]

keep paying attentiin ne of the yucatan ... it will consolidate with the convection.

By this Aric are you seeing a relocation of the center under the deepest convection?

I always wind up saying it each new season and throughout the season: If you want to know where the COC, Center Of Circulation will wind up in a developing system, follow what Aric says. Nobody has a better eye for it. Having followed the way he looks at it and tried to get the same "eye" for it over the years, I totally agree that a center is slowly consolidating just northeast of the northeast tip of the Yucatan and due west of western Cuba. Watch the loops and you can see it.

Actually, I have watched the loop and it is definitely a possibility for a LLC to re-locate in that region off to just northeast of the NE tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. Initially, I thought it may have been a MLC there. However, convection has really waned both over the Yucatan and in the huge convective mass in the Yucatan Channel and SE Gulf in the past couple of hours.

[wxman57]

Obs indicate a very broad low center, perhaps 150 miles across with a lobe near the Yucatan and another off to the NNE a good ways. Sort of like Frances of 1998.