ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[johnbasham]

I think NHC is playing the safe bet on this even though the "official" track puts it through Florida... The narrative including ALL of the Gulf States is exactly the same thing we have been telling our clients for the last 24 hours. We are however moving closer toward a long term solution, but we have to wait for a really good model initialization from a defined storm centroid.

[vaffie]

18Z GFDL is rolling....already out with Chris

Is it out yet?

[TheShrimper]

It's not y'alls first rodeo. It's June, with a small entity possibly becoming a little bit of a problem if any. Nail biting starts in Sept- Oct for the officials, not now. Please.....

After Allison blew up and caused so many problems for Houston the first week of June, I'm pretty respectful of June storms. You never know when the right (or wrong) conditions will be in place for a major problem. Allison was only a TS, so it doesn't have to be a hurricane.

As you and I should be. I know all about Allison, her deluge and the monetary damages incurred. All I am saying is that if you want to go filling up sandbags or taking precautionary measures now for something that may or may not be, have at it. If you think the local media should have sounded the all out panic siren, take up the beef with them. They are acting prudently, if you don't feel so, disregard their complacency and do what you feel you need to curb any anxiety. That's all I'm saying..... no harm meant. TheShrimper.

[djmikey]

I think NHC is playing the safe bet on this even though the "official" track puts it through Florida... The narrative including ALL of the Gulf States is exactly the same thing we have been telling our clients for the last 24 hours. We are however moving closer toward a long term solution, but we have to wait for a really good model initialization from a defined storm centroid.

Um, there is no "official" track yet....

[Lorenzo]

What does the gdfl and hwrf model say?Is Florida still in play?

[wkwally]

So what does this look like for Brownsville

[cigtyme]

Yes it does, and as you I am on the Gulf Coast alot closer to where this may be when/if it develops. There is plenty of time, and no nail biting should be contemplated. There is hardly a mention here in SW Fla. We know the drill, and I don't think the officials are or will be huddled around a room with tracking maps and computer feeds. You are 5 days removed if anything should threaten. That being said, come Aug, Sept. and on, yeh I'd be a little concerned. Plenty of time now man to react. You'll be fine even if there's a curveball thrown.

I hope the officials treat any 70% invest with the same vigor now as one in mid August. Then putting "you'll be fine" just shouldn't be posted, when there is this much uncertainty. Just my 2 cents carry on.

[brunota2003]

I think NHC is playing the safe bet on this even though the "official" track puts it through Florida... The narrative including ALL of the Gulf States is exactly the same thing we have been telling our clients for the last 24 hours. We are however moving closer toward a long term solution, but we have to wait for a really good model initialization from a defined storm centroid.

Um, there is no "official" track yet....

I think he means an inhouse track...they do do forecasts for systems even before they become "official", but don't release them to the public.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 96, 2012062200, , BEST, 0, 220N, 890W, 20, 1007, LO

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[brunota2003]

Until the system makes landfall and/or dissipates...Florida (and elsewhere) is always in play.

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models.

Code: Select all

 
WHXX01 KWBC 220015
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC FRI JUN 22 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962012) 20120622 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120622  0000   120622  1200   120623  0000   120623  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    22.0N  89.0W   22.5N  89.5W   22.9N  89.7W   23.4N  90.1W
BAMD    22.0N  89.0W   22.2N  89.2W   22.6N  89.3W   23.2N  89.3W
BAMM    22.0N  89.0W   22.2N  89.3W   22.5N  89.5W   22.8N  89.6W
LBAR    22.0N  89.0W   22.6N  89.3W   23.7N  89.8W   24.9N  90.2W
SHIP        20KTS          25KTS          33KTS          39KTS
DSHP        20KTS          25KTS          33KTS          39KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120624  0000   120625  0000   120626  0000   120627  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    23.9N  90.2W   23.8N  89.6W   23.1N  87.6W   23.5N  85.2W
BAMD    24.0N  89.1W   25.1N  89.0W   25.5N  88.9W   25.8N  87.4W
BAMM    23.5N  89.4W   24.0N  88.5W   24.3N  86.4W   24.8N  82.3W
LBAR    26.3N  90.3W   27.7N  90.1W   27.6N  90.0W   28.0N  89.3W
SHIP        46KTS          55KTS          55KTS          48KTS
DSHP        46KTS          55KTS          55KTS          48KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  22.0N LONCUR =  89.0W DIRCUR =   0DEG SPDCUR =   3KT
LATM12 =  21.3N LONM12 =  89.5W DIRM12 =  46DEG SPDM12 =   6KT
LATM24 =  20.5N LONM24 =  90.0W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =  120NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD =  240NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[Hurricaneman]

There also seems to be another area of low pressure north of the northeastern yucatan, is that the mid level center or is there a possible relocation going on there

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[ROCK]

00z Best Track

AL, 96, 2012062200, , BEST, 0, 220N, 890W, 20, 1007, LO

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

yep that is just inland over the Yucatan...

[ROCK]

There also seems to be another area of low pressure north of the northeastern yucatan, is that the mid level center or is there a possible relocation going on there

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

IMO it looks like a MLC.....I think Tire guy said that earlier and I agree...

[Dave]

From NHC 8 PM Adv until it's nailed down further...

INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

[ROCK]

GFDL ran for Chris and not for 96L.....hoping they are late or they are skipping this run until later...

[tolakram]

Global model verification post. Thursday June 21st, 12Z run, 96 hour plot. Saved Images.

[cycloneye]

I think the first GFDL run will be at 00z as by now normally is out.

[ROCK]

I think that they are waiting until the 0Z now....no 18Z GFDL for 96L...

[tolakram]

Going back to Wed June 20th, my post in the pre-invest thread.

12z run

120 hour model maps.

all saved