ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[KatDaddy]

Time to really begin watching the GOM now that we have an official Invest and LLC over the extreme N Yucatan with a ton of moisture to the NE and E across the SE GOM and NW Caribbean Sea.

[hurricanefloyd5]

need the cacun radar please

[jabman98]

Any idea on a timeline for this system? Is it something that might be a factor as early as this weekend, or are we looking at mid-to-late next week for landfall? I know it's very early to tell, but any general thoughts would be appreciated. I'm also aware that a system in the Gulf can be unpredictable and do damage even without landfall. Just curious what thoughts are at the moment.

[ozonepete]

Any idea on a timeline for this system? Is it something that might be a factor as early as this weekend, or are we looking at mid-to-late next week for landfall? I know it's very early to tell, but any general thoughts would be appreciated. I'm also aware that a system in the Gulf can be unpredictable and do damage even without landfall. Just curious what thoughts are at the moment.

Very generally, if something develops it should not make landfall until late next week if it's Texas or maybe a day or two sooner if it recurves towards the central Gulf coast or Florida.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[jabman98]

Thanks for the general info. I've got someone coming in from out of town on Monday and was wondering if this might affect their flight. Probably not their flight, but maybe after that, if my part of Texas is the target.

[cycloneye]

A reminder about posting images. Dont forget to upload with imageshack or other ones to conserve them.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=TPAF1

Sustained winds of 26 mph with gusts to 36 mph in the band that came through earlier near Tampa Bay

[Zanthe]

Looks like it might be getting wound up over the Yucatán...thought lastnight it would form closer to Florida, but I think it might form over or just north of the Yucatán, now that I look closer. Just my opinion.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[PTrackerLA]

Local met just said the disturbance would heading northeast to Florida while basically showing their in-house version of the GFS. Could turn out to be correct but when the rest of model guidance shows something totally different I kind of shake my head.

[PTrackerLA]

00z model runs will be very telling. Will the GFS hold serve or join the Euro/CMC camp? Stay tuned.

[ROCK]

Local met just said the disturbance would heading northeast to Florida while basically showing their in-house version of the GFS. Could turn out to be correct but when the rest of model guidance shows something totally different I kind of shake my head.

yeah I saw the same here locally....you dont trash one run of the EURO. You see if continues with the same solution... If the EURO flipps back tonight then maybe they were right and the GFS will rule the day....hard to tell right now....

[Sambucol]

What time is 00z? Thanks.

[Peanut432]

7 CDT I believe.

[ROCK]

00z model runs will be very telling. Will the GFS hold serve or join the Euro/CMC camp? Stay tuned.

fun times PT. ...waiting for the GFDL to come out, then we have the ensembles, NAM, GFS, UKMET, CMC, EURO...oh the suspense...

[Hurricaneman]

For what it's worth, the 18z GFS shows a SW FL landfall:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal114.gif

Is it also predicting quicker development though?

Yes and this system seems to be following it with the development pretty well, I think the GFS is doing well there

[bbadon]

Local met just said the disturbance would heading northeast to Florida while basically showing their in-house version of the GFS. Could turn out to be correct but when the rest of model guidance shows something totally different I kind of shake my head.

Same here in Lake Charles. He showed 7 days with zero rain. lol I know its likely but at least give the people some sense that things could possibly change.

The bad part is this is a nail biter for the emergency managers.

[ROCK]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical


18Z NOGAPS.....I will let someone else dissect this run....its really ugly....lol

[ROCK]

for one it doesnt initialize the center correctly....

[ozonepete]

Thanks for the general info. I've got someone coming in from out of town on Monday and was wondering if this might affect their flight. Probably not their flight, but maybe after that, if my part of Texas is the target.

You're welcome. They should be fine coming in in Monday. But you should certainly get all of your hurricane preps done since Texas is a big target early in the season. Good luck.

[TheShrimper]

It's not y'alls first rodeo. It's June, with a small entity possibly becoming a little bit of a problem if any. Nail biting starts in Sept- Oct for the officials, not now. Please.....