ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[GCANE]

I called it a swirly thing....

Works for me

[Aric Dunn]

ITs quite clear the vort that was off the north coast has since weakened and a smaller vort is swinging east over the yucatan. It is becoming more likely that a more substantial circ will develop within the convective mass over the next 12 to 24 hours.

looking at the low level cloud lines and radar my best estimate right now would be 50 to 100 miles off the NE Yucatan.

[cycloneye]

Aric,look at how the showers are moving in this Belize long range radar.

[Kingarabian]

I always thought model runs don't mean anything until an LLC is formed...

[RL3AO]

I always thought model runs don't mean anything until an LLC is formed...

There is LL vorticity. Thats all it needs to track.

[sunnyday]

So, is Florida likely to miss another one? This time yesterday, it seemed to be going that way.

[Tireman4]

So, is Florida likely to miss another one? This time yesterday, it seemed to be going that way.

WAY too early to say that. Goodness knows where this thing will go or how strong it will be.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tropicwatch]

The lowest pressure I have found reported in the last hour was 29.81 or 1009.4mb at ndbc buoy 4003.
26.044 N 85.612 W

Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 90 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 5.8 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 7.8 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 5.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.6 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ESE ( 106 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.81 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 80.8 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.3 °F

Tropicwatch

[PrettyCreole]

Any chance of this storm hitting the North Gulf Coast, aka New Orleans

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Dave]

Any chance of this storm hitting the North Gulf Coast, aka New Orleans

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Way to early to tell where it will go if anywhere. Stay tuned!

[OuterBanker]

Well, TWC's posting is covering all three scenearios. I think they have improved recently. From an excellent Hurricane Hunter series to a fair and balanced look at Debby to be.

Maybe there is hope for them yet

[PrettyCreole]

Any chance of this storm hitting the North Gulf Coast, aka New Orleans

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Way to early to tell where it will go if anywhere. Stay tuned!

Ok, This is so exciting, I love Weather!!

[jlauderdal]

So, is Florida likely to miss another one? This time yesterday, it seemed to be going that way.

fringe effects, some rain, breezy..im sure we can handle it

[Zanthe]

Everyone asking about if it's gonna hit *insert place here*:

AND INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES GULF
COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

Just sayin ^_^

[cycloneye]

There is the main low pressure.



Uploaded with imageshack.us

[Portastorm]

Hey folks, the action around here is obviously heating up. Let's can the one liners. If you want that, feel free to enter the Storm2K chatroom and one line away!

Thanks.

[tropicwatch]

Buoy 42003
1950UTC

Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 110 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 4.0 m/s
Wind Gust (GST): 5.0 m/s
Wave Height (WVHT): 1.4 m
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.5 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ESE ( 109 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1008.6 mb
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -1.9 mb ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 27.3 °C
Water Temperature (WTMP): 28.6 °C

Pressure coming down at pretty good clip.

[cycloneye]

Afternoon HPC discussion:


THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE OF THE
DAY 3-7 FORECAST WAS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO/SE COAST...WHERE
MODELS ARE ADVERTISING THE CHANCE FOR A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TO DEVELOP DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. AFTER THE HPC/NHC
HOTLINE CALL...CONSENSUS FOR DAY 3-4 WAS TO SLOWLY TRACK A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL GULF NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE
BIG BEND OF FLORIDA. AFTER DAY 5...MODELS REALLY BEGIN TO DIVERGE
ON SOLUTIONS. A HANDFUL OF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TRACK THE LOW
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH FLORIDA AND THEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...WHILE ANOTHER CLUSTER OF MODELS ESSENTIALLY STALL THE
SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND THEN BEGIN TO RETROGRADE IT
WEST/SOUTHWESTWARD. TO EXPRESS THE LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FORECAST/MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE DAY 6-7 FORECAST...THE
CONSENSUS WAS TO KEEP A SHEAR AXIS STRETCHED FROM THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST DOWN INTO THE GULF...WITH ONE SPOT LOW MOVING
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND GETTING ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND A SECOND SPOT LOW
REMAINING IN THE GULF. HOWEVER...WITH THE LARGE AMOUNT OF
ENSEMBLE SPREAD...THIS REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

RAUSCH/GERHARDT

[cycloneye]

New Orleans/Baton Rouge afternoon discussion:

LONG TERM...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE EVOLUTION
OF THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF
THE NORTHERN YUCATAN WITH AN IMPRESSIVE SWATH OF CONVECTION EAST
OF THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AND YUCATAN CHANNEL. LATEST
TWO FROM NHC SHOWS A 50% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48
HOURS. AIR FORCE RECON WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE SYSTEM
DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL GULF IN 48 HOURS BUT
DIVERGE BEYOND THAT POINT WITH POOR AGREEMENT OR RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY AFTER THAT. THE MAIN FACTOR IN STEERING THE SYSTEM
WILL BE A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST COAST...AND
WHETHER OR NOT THIS TROUGH DIGS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PICK UP THE
SYSTEM AND TAKE IT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...OR IF THE SYSTEM GETS
LEFT BEHIND IN THE GULF TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER
THE PLAINS. WAY TOO EARLY TO TELL AT THIS POINT. WE WILL HAVE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Any thoughts on the 8pm TWO?