ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical
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Re: Re:
South Texas Storms wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:we will call that slight movement and a drift. even stationary system are not technically stationary. in that 24 hours period it barely moved is all i meant.
Well the next trough is no where in sight...
Both GFS and EURO pick up on a 2nd trof and have been......nothing new here...so far.
Last edited by Weatherfreak000 on Thu Jun 21, 2012 1:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
if the EURO follows the CMC...what a coup....
that and the NAM, UKMET....well maybe not those...
that and the NAM, UKMET....well maybe not those...
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144 drfting westward towards southern texas ... look at the trough over florida it just barely misses it. too many unknowns still
http://instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php ... b&hour=144
http://instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php ... b&hour=144
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
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M a r k
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
ROCK wrote:and there is it, westward we go....
all hail the mighty CMC!
Yes sir! Now we have some more model support for Texas.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
18z Best Track
AL, 96, 2012062118, , BEST, 0, 217N, 890W, 20, 1008, DB
http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest
AL, 96, 2012062118, , BEST, 0, 217N, 890W, 20, 1008, DB
http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest
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Re:
Aric Dunn wrote:144 drfting westward towards southern texas ... look at the trough over florida it just barely misses it. too many unknowns still
http://instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php ... b&hour=144
Like the ECMWF Ensembles have been consistently showing.....too much uncertainty to make a call, its still fair game for Florida or Texas. Hopefully we will get a better idea by tomorrow or the weekend.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
South Texas Storms wrote:ROCK wrote:and there is it, westward we go....
all hail the mighty CMC!
Yes sir! Now we have some more model support for Texas.
well they were doing this two ago as well. still too many variables. its normal back and forth.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
I see a 996mb in there....
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP144.gif
ouch http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP168.gif
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP144.gif
ouch http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP168.gif
Last edited by ROCK on Thu Jun 21, 2012 1:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
First Tropical model run:
Code: Select all
WHXX01 KWBC 211828
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1828 UTC THU JUN 21 2012
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962012) 20120621 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120621 1800 120622 0600 120622 1800 120623 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.7N 89.0W 21.9N 89.4W 22.3N 89.6W 22.4N 89.9W
BAMD 21.7N 89.0W 22.0N 88.9W 22.2N 89.0W 22.8N 88.8W
BAMM 21.7N 89.0W 21.9N 89.0W 22.1N 89.2W 22.4N 89.2W
LBAR 21.7N 89.0W 22.4N 89.0W 23.2N 89.3W 24.2N 89.6W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 29KTS 36KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 29KTS 36KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120623 1800 120624 1800 120625 1800 120626 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.0N 90.1W 23.3N 89.9W 22.6N 89.9W 22.2N 90.7W
BAMD 23.6N 88.7W 24.8N 88.7W 25.1N 89.3W 25.1N 89.7W
BAMM 23.1N 89.2W 23.7N 88.9W 23.4N 88.8W 23.4N 89.7W
LBAR 25.5N 89.9W 27.1N 89.8W 27.1N 90.1W 27.5N 90.1W
SHIP 43KTS 58KTS 62KTS 60KTS
DSHP 43KTS 58KTS 62KTS 60KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.7N LONCUR = 89.0W DIRCUR = 20DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 20.9N LONM12 = 89.9W DIRM12 = 13DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 20.0N LONM24 = 90.2W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 120NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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168 hurricane or close to it turning nw and a trough coming down.
http://instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php ... b&hour=168
http://instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php ... b&hour=168
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
That's funny when you think almost everyone had this going to Florida 6 hours ago. You just never know with these things.
Who knows, it stll may end up going toward Fl. when all is said and done, of course assuming that it does in fact
develop. We shall see.
Who knows, it stll may end up going toward Fl. when all is said and done, of course assuming that it does in fact
develop. We shall see.
South Texas Storms wrote:ROCK wrote:and there is it, westward we go....
all hail the mighty CMC!
Yes sir! Now we have some more model support for Texas.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
this is the CMC but with a EURO tag on it....same run almost...I see it down to 994mb....hard to tell...going up the coast....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
ROCK wrote:and there is it, westward we go....
all hail the mighty CMC!
No! Come back to Florida.
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