EPAC: INVEST 95E

[Kingarabian]

hmm euro now shows this developing into possibly a tropical storm making landfall over mexico...

The GFS did a pretty good job with this one in developing it. Of course it has to 1st become a TC and not poof. :p.

[Yellow Evan]

Wow, another MX storm? Yikes, poor Mexico.

[Zanthe]

So...is some of this the remnants of Carlotta?

[Kingarabian]

So...is some of this the remnants of Carlotta?

Yeah I believe it absorbed some of Carlotta's energy. Anyway it looks like its on its way to TD status.

[cycloneye]

Up to 70%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON JUN 18 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST
TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES WILL
CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Kingarabian]

Yep Cycloneye, they are keen of it developing with that last statement of possible TS watches being needed.

[Kingarabian]

19/0000 UTC 17.3N 107.6W T1.5/1.5 95E

TDP numbers closer to TD status.

[Fyzn94]

I have no trouble at all believing that this has developed into something.

[Kingarabian]

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.. 1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST ON TUESDAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[Cyclenall]

Wouldn't be surprised if this is a TS right now. Daniel is ready anyways. For some reason the models aren't excited over this one in terms of intensity but the NHC is. Very deep convection bursting and I would start advisories now. I wonder how much rain southern Mexico has gotten now!!

It appears the NRL is in a semi-rapid scan mode with new images every 13 minutes every time I check. I remember this with TS Lee from last year.

[cycloneye]

Stays at 80% at 5 AM PDT TWO:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE JUN 19 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND ONLY A SMALL
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD. INTERESTS ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Yellow Evan]

Very little thunderstorms are located north of the LLC, that is what IMO is holding the NHC up.

[euro6208]

no development according to euro...dissipating soon

[cycloneye]

Down to 60%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE JUN 19 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 220 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.
ALTHOUGH NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

[cycloneye]

Down to 40%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUN 19 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 225 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION HAS DIMINISHED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[brunota2003]

Nice LLC heading westward...devoid of convection, except off to the south, however. It is sitting over 29/28C waters though...guess dry air and wind shear?

[Yellow Evan]

Nice LLC heading westward...devoid of convection, except off to the south, however. It is sitting over 29/28C waters though...guess dry air and wind shear?

It is due to northerly shear.

[tolakram]

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[hurricanes1234]

Poor 95E, it was so close to becoming a TD. Who knows, maybe they'll upgrade it to a TD in the post-tropical re-analysis.