ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

12z Best track

No change in intensity and continues to move slowly WSW.

AL, 02, 2012052612, , BEST, 0, 319N, 760W, 40, 1001, SS

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[AHS2011]

What are the chances that Beryl can boost up to 65 MPH?

[northjaxpro]

There is still a small chance that Beryl can get to maybe a strong 60-65 mph tropical storm as she moves over the Gulf Stream. However, she only has about a 36 hour window before landfall to do that because Beryl will cross cooler shelf water which extends out about50 miles from our coast in NE Florida. That will start the weakening of Beryl as she crosses the coast in my area late tomorrow night into early Monday.

[OuterBanker]

What an unusual anomly Beryl is. I guess we can all be thankful that it is May. If this were July or later this scenario would be much different. And much more dangerous.

[GCANE]

Core is at 3C but there is a strong boundary-layer inversion at 2C inhibiting convection.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 2_TANO.GIF

UL winds are rotating CCW, which inhibits up-draft / outflow.

I see chances being slim that deep convection will fire and she transitions to a deep warm core non-ST.

[northjaxpro]

What an unusual anomly Beryl is. I guess we can all be thankful that it is May. If this were July or later this scenario would be much different. And much more dangerous.

Amen to this! If this were July, I really believe we would be s
really staring down a much more ominous situation for sure here in Jax!

[ronjon]

Beryl appears to be wobbling more S-SW the last couple of hours. Truly subtropical with much of the TS displaced from its center. I don't think we'll see a pure tropical system out of this one with the cold core ULL nearby and lots of dry air. Should bring some beneficial rains to S GA and N FL. Most models, with the exception of the Euro, eventually move this into the extreme NE gulf so we'll see if the ECM leads the pack here or it's out to lunch.

[thundercam96]

Some convection is trying to build on the south-southeast side of the circulation. Definitely will be monitoring that to see if it is a new trend as Beryl is beginning to approach the warm waters of the Gulf Stream.

If Much Convection Forms There, Daytona Beach Will Probably Feel The Effects Of This System

[thundercam96]

Beryl appears to be wobbling more S-SW the last couple of hours. Truly subtropical with much of the TS displaced from its center. I don't think we'll see a pure tropical system out of this one with the cold core ULL nearby and lots of dry air. Should bring some beneficial rains to S GA and N FL. Most models, with the exception of the Euro, eventually move this into the extreme NE gulf so we'll see if the ECM leads the pack here or it's out to lunch.

Will The Wobbiling Bring The Storm Farther Down The FLA Coast?

[Dean4Storms]

Moving more SW if you asked me. Starting to look better organized and over coming the dry air..........

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/n ... PE=Instant

[ronjon]

Moving more SW if you asked me. Starting to look better organized and over coming the dry air..........

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/n ... PE=Instant

Yeah probably more SW now - hard to tell with a somewhat disorganized cloud field. She's approaching the 27 deg C sea temp of the eastern part of the gulf stream. Eventually she should cross the 28 deg C water later today. BTW Dean, cool SAT loop with the lights of the cities!

[thundercam96]

Here Are The Model Tracks For Beryl; Most Brining It In Just South Of Jacksonville, And The GFDL Is More South

http://hurricanecity.com/wx/images/tropical/plotsystemmodels_NT__2_atlantic_merc_o2560x1920_478_M1122_095_M0522_1280x960_640_480.jpg

[Aric Dunn]

Definitely SW and accelerating. should be south of the NHC forecast by 11

[Hurricane Andrew]

Aric: Recon is still a go today, right?

[Aric Dunn]

I did not look.

[cycloneye]

Aric: Recon is still a go today, right?

The TCPOD should be out in an hour from ths post.

[cycloneye]

Cam from Jacksonville beach.

http://www.jaxpiercam.com/

[Aric Dunn]

looking at latest sat loops the last couple hours maybe almost SSW.

[Hurricane Andrew]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

Here is a sat loop.

[Aric Dunn]

It essentially been riding the 76w line since about 945 UTC with a little westerly component.


turn on the lat and lon ( its actually the "county" check )


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html