ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

You can see 94L (Beryl) on radar.

[ocala]

Looks to be turning west now...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Looking at a radar loop from Wilmington it certainly looks to be moving west.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

[ozonepete]

Wow. Convection to the north and west is not blowing away at all. Would indicate the shear is really dropping in that area, and we know shear is lower to the southwest. Just watching the satellite loops it looks to be developing much faster than I thought it would. (And of course it's moving over very warm water.)

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like it is becoming separated from the trough. This could really deepen tonight, lots of energy there.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-vis.html

[Hurricaneman]

http://i.imgur.com/BrZSr.png

If my eyes aren't decieving me the southeastern part of the circulation is still convection free, but the western part seems to be forming the very beginnings of an eyewall

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[SunnyThoughts]

Certainly does look to be separating and becoming its own entity. LOTS of anticipation for recon tomorrow. Can't wait to see how strong the winds will be by then.

[Hurricaneman]

Certainly does look to be separating and becoming its own entity. LOTS of anticipation for recon tomorrow. Can't wait to see how strong the winds will be by then.

At the rate this is strengthening it could be a strong tropical storm ar cat 1 hurricane at peak

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

['CaneFreak]

Use of the term CDO would be more applicable here (central dense overcast)

http://i.imgur.com/BrZSr.png

If my eyes aren't decieving me the southeastern part of the circulation is still convection free, but the western part seems to be forming the very beginnings of an eyewall

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[ozonepete]

Certainly does look to be separating and becoming its own entity. LOTS of anticipation for recon tomorrow. Can't wait to see how strong the winds will be by then.

Yeah, look at this image. Considering how it already looks and the environment it's moving into this has high potential for a strong TS or maybe a cat 1. Not much to stop intensification if it goes on forecast track. What's impressive is that it is still ahead of the model forecasts in strength and track. I think the models had it at 1008 mb or so and it must be below 1004 now (hit that at 5PM I think).

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

A little worried there has been no renumber...

['CaneFreak]

I don't think they will update it at 11 pm. They will probably will wait for 5 am or 11 am before updating in order to continue to monitor trends. I mean, it ain't going nowhere fast

Edit: They did renumber

A little worried there has been no renumber...

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al942012_al022012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201205260151
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 022012.ren

[lebron23]

Renumbered.

[Hurricaneman]

A little worried there has been no renumber...

Maybe they're waiting for the first morning satellite images

Forget what I said above Just renumered

[Hurricaneman]

Im going to take a guess here but I think the NHC will go with 55mph with a possibility of a hurricane with landfall near Jacksonville

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[lebron23]

Im going to take a guess here but I think the NHC will go with 55mph with a possibility of a hurricane with landfall near Jacksonville

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Never seen a NHC advisory with 55 mph they usually go straight to 60

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track as Beryl

2012052600, , BEST, 0, 323N, 749W, 40, 1001, LO, 34, NEQ, 120, 100, 0, 120, 1012, 130, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, BERYL, M

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[NDG]

Track will be interesting. I bet that since the ECMWF did so well in the same area with Alberto's track they will be leaning heavily with the ECMWF's track of landfall in NE FL.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[lebron23]

Expecting NHC to issue Beryl with 45-50 MPH winds